Posted on 11/02/2010 7:37:56 AM PDT by WebFocus
Alternate headline: “Pessimistic eeyoreblogger thisclose to a nervous breakdown.”
In the House, the projection is for the GOP to gain 70 seats: The GOP will win 76 House districts currently held by Democrats, and the Democrats will win 6 House seats currently held by Republicans, including a few surprises. Republican takeovers are in red; Democratic takeovers are in dark blue.
I can hear it now: “Jim’s been gargling with Maker’s Mark again.” But I actually played it fairly safe on this list. I predicted no GOP takeovers in states where the early voting looks pretty “meh,” such as West Virginia or Iowa.
Cost actually isn’t predicting a 70+ pick-up, merely noting that according to another statistician’s regression analysis, yesterday’s Gallup generic ballot blockbuster should mean something in the neighborhood of … 76 seats, precisely what Geraghty has. Quote: “In fact, you have to go all the way back to 1928 to find an election where the popular vote margin resembled anything close to what Gallup is predicting.”
The kicker? Gallup’s not the only pollster now pointing past 1994 and back to the 20s for an analog. Just out from Rasmussen:
Republicans have opened a 12-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 31, 2010. New Rasmussen Reports polling finds that 51% of Likely Voters nationwide plan to vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 39% are opting for the Democrat.
If these results hold, it could lead to the election of more Republicans to Congress than at any time since the 1920s…
Republicans lead by 20 among men and by six percentage points among women. They lead by 20 among senior citizens and by 31 among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties.
Not only is 12 points tied for the biggest lead Republicans have ever had on the Rasmussen generic ballot poll, but if you follow the Ras link above and eyeball the right-hand column, you’ll see that they’ve never been above 50 percent during The One’s presidency — until right now. Looking at that Gallup poll last night and then Rasmussen’s this afternoon, I felt like Schwarzenegger at the end of “Predator” when the creature finally takes off its mask. Just staring at it, thinking … “What de hell ahh you?”
So gruesome is it, in fact, that the Democratic leadership has now apparently abandoned its pretense of holding the House and is talking openly about a “bloodbath” if the polls are accurate. Nate Silver is also preparing the faithful to absorb the blow by offering five reasons why the GOP’s gains might be even bigger than expected. (Note numbers two and five.) I can’t quite buy it, almost for congenital reasons: Until I see a 60+ gain with my own two eyes (“What de hell ahh you?”) my assumption is that it can’t and won’t happen. Too many reasons to think that the Dems can at least limit the damage: The GOP’s brand is still unpopular, Obama’s been begging young and minority voters for months to turn out, and the Dems have spent boatloads of money on ads. They’ll still get crushed, but I think it’ll be more like 54 seats in the House than 70+. Exit question: If it does end up being 70+ in the House, how does the GOP not take back the Senate too?
Too low.
Would love to be a fly on the wall wherever Pelosi is today.
Well, Pelosi should be pretty safe. I wouldn’t want to be around Obama when the ashtrays start flying, though. I hear Obama is pretty tough on flies.
ACORN et al are a BIG reason. Recount of close elections is another reason. All recounts will go to the Democrats. Republicans are incompetent at finding bales of votes in closets and the trunks of cars.
I like what I see, but I do worry about massive fraud.
Sounds like a REALLY BIG truck.
I think in my research 70 is low but I could be a little optimistic because I can see us winning 90. If we win 90 we will get the required Senate seats as well.
LLS
Waaaaay too high. Fifty. Fifty-five at most.
(But I’m goin’ to celebrate with a Margarita if I’ve low-balled it...)
Still not convinced of the 70 - 80 seat projections and a Senate takeover. The ‘Rats have outspent the GOP in the House races by a fair margin, unfortunately it was mainly to save the solid blue seats from slipping away. We will win the House with about about a 45 seat pickup and we will make the Senate fairly close by picking up 7 seats. Where the ‘Rats will be totally destroyed, and it’s the elephant in the middle of the room for the ‘Rats, is the Gov and state races that will go overwhelmingly GOP. Redistricting is coming up next session and many a red state will see some electoral vote gains. Of course that is all “fine print” compared to the federal focus today in the House and Senate races. But make no mistake, the ‘Rats are in for a beating at all levels!!!
my prediction is 74 (or better)!
I think almost everyone peaked right except Raese and Whitman. I’m concerned that we won’t get W VA, whereas a month ago Raese had a 6 point lead.
I think almost everyone peaked right except Raese and Whitman. I’m concerned that we won’t get W VA, whereas a month ago Raese had a 6 point lead.
Forget the polls, forget the media spin. Go to the ballot box and put an end to the Dem Party. Throw this putrid congress out on their heads.
This ain't going to end well for these Statists
The Rats are shovel-ready for the dust bin of history.
why should liberals vote for Democrats? Because Obama mandated that they buy private health insurance, bailed out wall street banks and spent the rest on fixing potholes?
Ha!
I’ve been telling everyone I know for the last 6 months that the Dems will lose 70 seats. People are steaming mad at them, and even if the R’s aren’t perfect (and, clearly, they aren’t), they are the only viable alternative.
As for why the Senate likely won’t go R, the reason is simple: only 1/3 of the Senate is up for election. If the entire Senate was up like the House, the R’s would likely win 65-68 seats.
This is not so much a realignment as a rejection of the hard-core Leftism that has been guiding the Dems since the early 70s, but which has only become in-your-face with Obama. Confronted with anti-Americanism and Socialism, the American people are going to reject it en mass and tell the Dems to shove it. If the Dems don’t understand that, they’ll get thumped in 2012 also. HOWEVER, the R’s had BETTER realize that business as usual inside the Beltway is OVER. They MUST be much more responsive, and that necessarily means no cooperation with the far Left members of the Jackass Party. Stop the spending frenzy, NOW; save the Bush tax cuts (or face a dead economy and the wrath of voters next time around); stop the really Leftist judges that Obama is appointing; stop funding our enemies (with or without borrowed money) and fund DoD as it needs to be to maintain our edge over our enemies (and, YES, this country has actual enemies, contrary to what Obama and his fellow travelers say and believe). IOW, a complete reversal of how things have been going, to the extent that this can be accomplished with only control of the House.
If it’s 50 you should celebrate with that Margarita too.
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