Posted on 10/31/2010 8:59:06 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
In the final look at Colorado’s early voter returns, here are the partisan breakdowns by the state’s 7 Congressional Districts. The three competitive races–CO-3, CO-4, and CO-7–are also highlighted with maps of the district.
Democrats lead by significant margins in CO-1 (Denver) and CO-2 (Boulder), their traditional strongholds, in terms of absolute turnout–number of votes and percentage of the total early vote. However, the Democrats are trailing by 4.0 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively, in terms of get-out-the-vote percentages. Republican enthusiasm exceeds Democratic turnout even in heavily Democratic districts. This would be less significant but for the fact that Republicans have turned out their “active” voters at a higher percentage in each of Colorado’s 7 Congressional Districts, an average of 3.24%:
CO-1: +4.0% GOP
CO-2: +1.8% GOP
CO-3: +3.6% GOP
CO-4: +2.6% GOP
CO-5: +2.8% GOP
CO-6: +1.9% GOP
CO-7: +6.0% GOP
“Active” voter percentages by CD current through 10/01/10. First column indicates early votes returned and percentage of total early votes by affiliation, while the second percentage indicates the number of early votes returned against the number of “active” affiliated voters in the district. For example, in CO-1, 20,754 Republican ballots have been returned, or 23.0 percent of the total early votes counted. Those 20,754 Republican ballots represent 38.1 percent of total “active” Republicans in the district.
Important caveats: permanent-mail-in-voter status (PMIV) varies significantly from county to county within each Congressional District. While Republican-friendly counties like Douglas County are above 70 percent PMIV (and thus more likely to have good early vote totals), some Democrat-friendly counties like Pueblo County have PMIV under 50 percent. This means that heavier Democratic turnout is likely–if it comes–to be on Election Day, and therefore, not reflected in early vote totals or percentages. That being said, it seems apparent that the GOP has captured the early vote enthusiasm, even in districts where Republicans are traditionally at a significant disadvantage. This has ramifications not only for the three House seats, but all statewide races, especially for U.S. Senate and the Secretary of State, Attorney General, and Treasurer races.
The takeaway analysis is that Rep. Betsy Markey is likely toast, that Scott Tipton is in a great spot to beat Rep. John Salazar, and that Ryan Frazier is poised to take Rep. Ed Perlmutter to the wire–and possibly a recount.
That means Republicans will likely pick up two seats, and if the wave manages to make it all the way to the Rocky Mountains from the Rust Belt and Upper Midwest, then perhaps three seats. Either way, expect the GOP to hold a partisan advantage in Colorado’s Congressional delegation for the first time since 2006.
CO-1:
REP: 20,754 (23.0%) vs. (38.1%)
DEM: 50,360 (55.8%) vs. (34.1%)
UAF: 19,104 (21.2%) vs. (21.2%)
TOTAL: 90,218 (30.6% of “active”)
CO-2:
REP: 37,622 (31.6%) vs. (39.1%)
DEM: 50,994 (42.8%) vs. (37.3%)
UAF: 30,520 (25.6%) vs. (24.3%)
TOTAL: 119,136 (33.0% of “active”)
CO-3: Three-term incumbent Rep. John Salazar (D) vs. Scott Tipton (R)
REP: 51,412 (44.2%) vs. (39.0%)
DEM: 40,826 (35.1%) vs. (35.4%)
UAF: 24,140 (20.7%) vs. (24.3%)
TOTAL: 116,378 (33.3% of “active”)
CO-4: Freshman incumbent Rep. Betsy Markey (D) vs. Cory Gardner (R)
REP: 55,148 (45.9%) vs. (39.5%)
DEM: 35,598 (29.6%) vs. (36.9%)
UAF: 29,439 (24.5%) vs. (25.4%)
TOTAL: 120,185 (33.9% of “active”)
CO-5:
REP: 53,471 (53.4%) vs. (33.7%)
DEM: 24,069 (24.1%) vs. (30.9%)
UAF: 22,504 (22.5%) vs. (22.3%)
TOTAL: 100,044 (29.5% of “active”)
CO-6:
REP: 87,612 (49.4%) vs. (44.9%)
DEM: 50,444 (28.4%) vs. (43.0%)
UAF: 39,337 (22.2%) vs. (29.4%)
TOTAL: 177,393 (39.5% of “active”)
CO-7: Two-term incumbent Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) vs. Ryan Frazier (R)
REP: 42,150 (26.4%) vs. (48.6%)
DEM: 46,406 (40.1%) vs. (42.6%)
UAF: 27,233 (23.5%) vs. (29.7%)
TOTAL: 115,789 (40.0% of “active”)
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Thank you, SeekAndFind.
Yup. I expect Buck to win, Tancredo to win the statehouse and the GOP to take over the Colorado legislature.
Go Tancredo! Go Frazier!
Democrats focus their efforts on early voting.
Unlikely that actual voting day will be heavier.
.....help me.... Is fly-over country or Beverly Hills East outraged at Zero and his Zombie friends?.....
My thanks too for posting this :)
All the conservatives I know will vote Tancredo.
Please, those of you who Twitter or are on Facebook, spread this around!
Reporting Voter Fraud
The Republican Party has set up a National Hotline, which will be staffed with Attorneys to handle polling issues as well as possible voter fraud or intimidation.
1 - 888 - 775 - 8117. IF you even SUSPECT this is happening, PLEASE call for their free advice.
I voted early and all the predictions match my vote and surprising to me is prediction of Republican victory over the gay Polis progressive member whose district includes the Ward Churchill worshipping town of Boulder. This puke would be the greatest of defeats for me. He should be a non-HIV discrimmination gay selection gay. Gosh how I dislike this rich excuse for life.
Thank you for the post! Good news in CO 3 where its been tough for the GOP to win since the redistricting allowing Fort Collins into the District to even out the conservative country... once saw Hank Brown in Wray at the cafe on a townhall.
Polis sucks, literally!
This is the kind of posting that keeps me glued to FR at election time. Thanks SeekAndFind!
Bump!
Yes, thank you, S & F.
October 31, 2010
Republicans Appear Poised to Win Big on Tuesday.
"Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided."
A 15% spread between Republicans v. Democrats is in uncharted territory.
See the Democrats in the red circle.
Give +3 to the GOP on top of the Gallup results and we’re entering wipeout territory. That is for the Democrats.
I pray God will do His Thing and the people listen and obey God.That being said— I pray as well that your assessment is correct.IMO it would be a good first step for Colorado/
“Independents” are actually down in Colorado (and maybe much of the nation. How many of these are “One-and-done Obamaites”
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