Posted on 10/30/2010 11:04:35 PM PDT by Maelstorm
Democrat Daniel Inouye has represented Hawaii in the U.S. Senate for nearly 48 years, and Republican Cam Cavasso thinks that is long enough.
Cavasso is in what some think is the unenviable and impossible position of challenging the re-election of Inouye, Hawaii's most influential politician. Cavasso even poked fun at his own chances this summer in a humorous television ad that labeled his candidacy as "crazy."
But in Inouye, the longest-serving Senate incumbent, Cavasso faces the chairman of the influential Senate Appropriations Committee who enjoys the backing of major Hawaii interest groups. Inouye also has won eight straight elections with an average of 75 percent of the vote and has a nearly 25-to-1 edge in campaign contributions this year. Neither the state nor national Republican parties are expending much effort to derail Inouye, and Cavasso has been left hoping his candidacy catches on some other way.
"Yes, I realize he's the longest-sitting senator in the United States. Yes, I realize he's head of the Appropriations Committee," Cavasso said. "He is the opposite from me on almost every issue, value and principle. And I believe the nation must turn back to values and principles which made us strong."
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I compared 2008 turnout CNN Exit polls which were one point off from real vote total (didn't have a Senate a race)
D- 45% R- 20% I- 34%
to the Rasmussen Sample Republican 24% Democrat 46% Independent 30%
Not much to complain about but I'm betting the Democrat turnout isn't going to be as high but more like 2006.
D-40% R-23% I-37%
If that is so this race could get interesting especially with Cavasso's advantage with Independents and I'd bet Dem the GOP turnout is higher than normal. The problem with Hawaii is that Obama still has an approval rating of 61%. It is a big drop though from his vote total of 71% on election day. There are some good indicators. Aiona and Abercrombie are in a dead heat while Charles Djou is leading Hanabasa and has an advantage on Approval rating.
Can this carry Cavasso over the line? Probably not but the horrible thing is it was clearly possible this year.
Amazingly, for one brief moment in his career- during Watergate, Inouye was one of the most recognizable senators in the country. Then he all but disappeared from the national scene. I guess it was a smart move, since he’s been there for 48 years.
This race is my pick for a possible surprise out-of-nowhere, shocker on Tuesday. Inouye’s numbers are pretty awful in that poll. Your assessment is dead on.
Inouye deserves his Medal of Honor and our thanks for his absolutely extraordinary service in WWII. However, he doesn’t deserve to further damage the country he once served at great personal sacrifice.
This would be a shocker.
“D-40% R-23% I-37%”
This could be possible.
This primary was after the Delaware primary. When every RINO was whining about Delaware, I said here “hey, people what about Hawaii. If this is an “anti incumbent” year, there is no bigger incumbent than this 86 year old, who has been representing Hawaii in DC since 1959” No one really cared.
I thought that John Roco should’ve been the nominee. Was young. And I think Cam looks kinda creepy. Apparently Roco is Filipino, and apparently Filipinos in Hawaii are Conservative and there are a good number of them.
Me talking about Hawaii on September 15 before the Hawaii primary.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2589382/posts#41
I’d feel lots better about it if Cavasso had more money because I bet that Inouye is just dumping his money in positive advertising about how great he is all the way till election day. However this year is clearly different in Hawaii but the question is it different enough? I do think it is highly likely that Djou will win against Hanabasa. Her negatives are very high compared to Djou. She lost a lot of cred in the special election race.
Hanabusa is creepy! She comes across as a transparent liar in her TV ads, plus, she is lying!
I'm pulling for Djou, as is almost everyone I know. (I hang with a great crowd.) I've lived here less than a year and am still learning the politics. Hawaii is sort of a weird place.
You are right about the second part, but he was an affirmative action MOH recipient. Medals in the military are capricious at times.
"On June 21, 2000, as part of a reevaluation of the military accomplishments of Asian Americans in World War II, Senator Inouye was presented with the Medal of Honor by President Bill Clinton for his heroism in Italy more than half a century earlier."
Hawaii loves incumbents. That’s why Djou has a chance to retain HI-1.
Inouye is in an institution there. Every poll has him up huge. (13 points is a substantial lead). He’s not going anywhere.
John Willoughby - CD2
U.S. Navy vet and solid Conservative
Not a RINO like dat otha guy
Inouye led his platoon against three machine gun nests, got shot in the abdomen, kept going, crawled up to throw a grenade into one of the nests, got his arm nearly blown off but managed to transfer the grenade from his dead fist to his good hand in order to take out that enemy, kept going until he got shot in the leg and can’t go anymore. They gave him morphine in the field, but when they got him to a surgeon, he had to go without anesthesia for the amputation of his arm because of his low blood pressure.
Because he was of Japanese heritage, he was only awarded a DSC which was finally upgraded to the MOH. You might call that affirmative action; I call it a very late correction.
Everyone MUST separate Inouye’s politics from his heroic WWII service... We all want Cavasso to win, but Inouye’s MOH was overdue.
It’s a long shot, but this is one of those years where anything can happen. Djou’s momentum could really help Cavasso. Tuesday is going to be a heck of an interesting night.
I agree with you. What's your point?
If you agree that Inouye’s MOH is not affirmative action, then I have made my point on that issue. If it’s about the thread in general, I was merely commenting that while his military service was certainly commendable, what he accomplished before is all for naught with the way he legislates now. And it’s such a waste of his sacrifice that he now works with the enemy within, aside from his generally good support in funding the military. Cavasso is in a tough race, up against a WWII war hero in a liberal state.
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