LePage has commanding lead, new poll shows

Portland Press Herald ^ | 10/29/10 | Rebekah Metzler

[truthfreedom]

Republican gubernatorial candidate Paul LePage has a commanding lead in Maine's race for the Blaine House, according to the latest results of The Maine Poll.

A formerly tight race now shows LePage trouncing the competition, with support from 40 percent of respondents. Democrat Libby Mitchell and independent Eliot Cutler are tied at 21 percent, according to the latest poll. Independent candidates Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott are at 4 percent and 1 percent, respectively. About 11 percent of voters are undecided, according to the poll.

...

[truthfreedom]

This poll, released today, is LePages best poll yet. The outcome was never really in doubt. The reason I'm posting about this not too interesting race is to show one graph, which might help people understand a little bit about that "tsunami" effect that people are talking about. The "enthusiasm gap".

The tea party Republican, LePage, has an overwhelming number of supporters who are more enthusiastic compared to the 2 challengers. 70% more enthusiastic, compared to 40% for the other 2.

Let's assume that only the "more enthusiastic" voters vote. Call it "turnout". 70% Republican turnout - 40% Democrat turnout.

Call it a huge huge blowout.

Is this type of enthusiasm gap showing up everywhere?

Because 70/40 R/D is pretty huge.

********************

40 x .70 - 28 - .5357
21 x .40 - 8.4 - .1875
21 x .40 - 8.4 - .1875
28 + 8.4 + 8.4 = 44.8

54 Lepage, 19 Mitchell, 19 Cutler
Totals not 100%, undecided, minor candidates.

Just look what the "enthusiasm gap" 70/40 did to the numbers.

[rdl6989]

thread bump!

[Maine Mariner]

I helped put up yard signs and pass out literature for two candidates running for office in Bangor and the Ellsworth area. I even drove through Blue Hill and Mount Desert Island. Republican signs everywhere-outnumbering Demorats 2-1 and even 3 and 4 to 1. Drove to Portland today and saw relatively few signs for Democrats at least compared to previous years.

I will be reporting some of the results on election night.
The Republicans may take the Maine Senate. I understand some internal polls show MOONBAT Libby Mitchell, Demorat, coming in third.

[Oshkalaboomboom]

I just hope their enthusiams carries over to the next election when they can dump the 2 RINO Senators.

[NewHampshireDuo]

The enthusiasm for Paul is incredible. It’s also great to see Mitchell flailing as she falls to a well deserved 3rd place.

[Maine Mariner]

Yes! But the enthusiasm for Paul has gone down all the way to local elections at leas to state legislative races.
I don’t know about school boards etc but I would not be surprised that Republicans do better there too!

[Maine Mariner]

The problem is that the Republicans don’t have a strong backbench yet. That will change next Tuesday.

Also, except for governor there are no state-wide races for other state offices. Secretary of State, Attorney General etc. are appointed by the combined state house and senate voting as one body. The Demorats have controll that majortiy since the mid 1970’s. That may also change on Tuesday. Several of my political observer friends believe the Republicans will take the Maine Senate and enough House seats to be able to select the state-wide office holders.

[BigEdLB]

My Accounting Professor in College was a guy named LePage. This LePage looks a lot friendlier....

[Cicero]

Baldacci has been a disastrous governor. I think Mainers are finally waking up to that, and are ready for a change.

[upstanding]

The problem is that the Republicans don’t have a strong backbench yet. That will change next Tuesday.

Excellent point. And one we all should consider.

[Maine Mariner]

Yes-and not just Maine. I have seen some polls that the Republicans may win 500-600 additional seats in the state legislative races.

Even a dozen or two in Maine would be significant.

[Maine Mariner]

Yes plus the fact that Libby Mitchell is a leftwing Moonbat.

[Oshkalaboomboom]

The problem is that the Republicans don’t have a strong backbench yet. That will change next Tuesday.

I'll say a prayer for you. I lived in NH for 14 years and loved the area but could never figure out how Vermont, Massachusetts and Maine ended up being so wacky. It was probably some disease that started in Boston and spread North.

[truthfreedom]

Another poll of Maine that came out today had Mitchell in 3rd. It’s a possibility.

If this poll is to be believed, this could be a huge blowout for LePage, and if it goes that way - taking into consideration the 70/40 enthusiasm gap - Scontras and Levesque win. Scontras is up in this poll and Levesque is w/in single digits. So, sure, Republicans could take the house and/or senate.

[randita]

Yes-and not just Maine. I have seen some polls that the Republicans may win 500-600 additional seats in the state legislative races.

I think this can be directly attributed to grassroots candidates coming out of local Tea Party groups.

[maine-iac7]

Hoorrraaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

[warsaw44]

Please ping me on election night? I grew up in Maine and so hope for sanity to return to that state.