Posted on 10/29/2010 8:43:59 AM PDT by toma29
Washington (CNN) - With four days to go until the midterm elections, one of the top non-partisan political handicappers is upping the prediction of how many seats the Republicans will win back in the House of Representatives.
The Rothenberg Political Report Friday forecast a net gain of 55 to 65 seats for the Republicans, with gains at or above 70 seats possible. That's up from Rothenberg's previous forecast of a GOP gain of 45 to 55 seats. The Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats to win back control of the chamber from the Democrats, who have held the House and the Senate for the last four years.
"At this point, there are no signs of a Democratic 'surge,' and some Democrats think that the political environment is deteriorating for the party. Across the country, Republicans are ending their campaigns with calls to 'check' President Obama. Given the mood of the electorate, this is likely to be an effective closing argument," says the Rothenberg Report.
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com ...
Prediction: 75+, 51-49 GOP Senate.
The DEMS are saying 65 seats. I say 80-100, been saying it for months. I agree with you on the senate 51-49.
74 and 8
I’ll go along with your prediction.
The reason is apathy. There is no fire in the bellies of lower ranks of the Democrat party. It is just too easy to do nothing. There is just not a reason to get off their ass to go vote. I can’t say for sure that they even know what is happening.
The question remains, can fraud and tampering make a difference? If the margin is < 3 % in cities it might. Ditto heavy city dominated blue states
Predictions only have value for us when they predict the way we want things to go. If this prediction suggested that the Dems would add seats, we would be critiqueing the prediction and/or the predictor.
The truth will be known by 11/03. Everything else is just filler.
I assume you mean like the inside of an Oreo cookie?
Probably now between 70 and 100-—I’m upping my original estimate-—and 8 seat net pickup in the Senate.
Probably now between 70 and 100-—I’m upping my original estimate-—and 8 seat net pickup in the Senate.
I was calling 52 CARD PICK-UP!With the President acting like a boob all week at universities and television shows... I’m add 15% to my estimate. Add 7.8 making 59 maybe 60 !
It really depends upon how big and how early the victories are on the East Coast. Major upset wins by Republicans on the East Coast and even in the Central Time Zone will tend to depress the later Democrat turnouts on the West Coast, with the result being that those races which are in the “too close to call” and “toss up” range for Democrats will fall to Republicans early-on, and those races that are just “Lean Democrat” will probably be “too close to call” for a while, then slowly trend Republican until the critical mass of votes counted make it statistically impossible for the Democrat to win. I would look for better than half of those in the Lean-Democrat category out west to fall to the Republican in such a circumstance.
What will this mean in numbers? I think that 65-75 seats in the House is perfectly within reach. In the Senate I think we’re going to have a 50/50 split unless the victories in the East so skew the Democrat Voter turnout in the West that Boxer doesn’t win re-election. IF it’s a 50/50, watch Lieberman ... to keep his Senate Chairmanship of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee he might be wiling to break caucus with the Democrats and support a GOP Senate Leadership (i.e., creating an effective 51/49 split). In a 50/50 split it makes no sense for him to continue caucusing with the Democrats ... he won’t win anything that way and will likely lose his Senate Chairmanship in a “power-sharing” relationship between Democrats and Republicans.
An actual 51/49 split in the GOP Senate would make the place nearly unworkable, but that’s ok. The principle objective the next 2 years is to stop anything new from the White House, and that is absolutely do-able within any of the likely scenarios currently out there. The Secondary objective — no less important than the first, just more difficult — is to either un-fund and/or un-do as much as possible of the Obama agenda from the previous 2 years while also laying the groundwork for outright repealing it when the White House and a larger majority in both houses of congress becomes reality.
one for the ages
totally jazzed,
gosh i hate democrats
No. I mean empty, useless, meaningless blather. Everyone LIKES the inside of an Oreo cookie!!
David Broder says this doesn’t mean a damn thing.
Charlie needs to get some sleep.
Now I don’t feel too bad when there are typos on KHR-LOL.
No. I mean empty, useless, meaningless blather. Everyone LIKES the inside of an Oreo cookie!!
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Actually I prefer the blather. And that blather is extremely popular here on FR. It’s pretty popular with Rasmussen, RCP and others as well. But I do agree that, in general, Oreo cookies are probably more popular - at least with the Libs in this election cycle.
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