Despite money and ads, poll shows O'Donnell still badly trails Coons in Delaware Senate race

WGNTV-AP ^ | 10-27-2010 | Ben Evans

[smoothsailing]

Despite money and ads, poll shows O'Donnell still badly trails Coons in Delaware Senate race

BEN EVANS

Associated Press

10:35 a.m. CDT, October 28, 2010

The survey released Thursday by Fairleigh Dickinson University-PublicMind shows Coons holding a commanding lead of 21 points, with 57 percent of likely voters saying they will vote for Coons compared to just 36 percent for O'Donnell.

[truthfreedom]

semi-attractive?

semi?

you’re the crazy one.

[truthfreedom]

Here’s some math on trying to guess why the numbers came out the way they did. Christine did better within the subgroups yet lost 4 points.

Basically, they talked to too many Democrats and not enough Republicans. With 47D 29R 24I, Coons is up by 22.
With +15, like we see around the country early voting,
or 40D, 37R, 23I, Coons is up by 12. If the same assumption of high R turnout were made in both FDR polls, Christine actually went from 13 to 12 down.

Analysis of this poll
*******************

***************************************

comparing the earlier and the later FDU polls

early
85-10 coons D
46-37 coons I
68-16 Christine R
total - Coons by 17

later
87-9 coons D (coons +3 since early)
46-35 coons I (coons +2 since early)
76-17 christine R (Christine +7 since early)
total - Coons by 21

How can Christine pick up 7, and Coons pick up only 5, and Coons pick up 4 overall?

***************************************

turnout assumption
23 indy
40 dem
37 rep

rep 37
76 (28.12)
17 (6.29)

dem 40
9 (3.6)
87 (34.8)

indie 23
35 (8.05)
46 (10.58)

35 x .60 - 21
46 x .37 - 17.02

or

indie normed 23
50 (11.5)
50 (11.5)

r - 28.12 + 3.6 + 8.05 = 39.77
d - 6.29 + 34.8 + 10.58 = 51.67

normed - 50/50
r - 28.12 + 3.6 + 11.5 = 43.22
d - 6.29 + 34.8 + 11.5 = 52.59

***********************
earlier

rep 37
68 (25.16)
16 (5.92)

dem 40
85 (34)
10 (4)

indie 23
46 (10.58)
37 (8.51)

r - 25.16 + 4 + 8.51 = 37.67
d - 5.92 + 34 + 10.58 = 50.5
early
85-10 coons D
46-37 coons I
68-16 Christine R
total - Coons by 17

********************
other assumptions

rep 29
76 (22.04)
17 (4.93)

dem 47
9 (4.23)
87 (40.89)

indie 24
35 (8.4)
46 (11.04)

22.04+4.23+8.4 = 34.67
4.93+40.89+11.04 = 56.86

***************************************

[smoothsailing]

Basically, they talked to too many Democrats and not enough Republicans.

Don't you just hate it when they do that!

Seriously though, thanks for the stats. I would love to see O'Donnell campaign internal polling.

I know Steele was with Christine today and Lamar Alexander is doing an event with her tomorrow AM. Then there is the Gawker smear story that could work in her favor.

I don't know truth, I just can't shake this gut-feeling, I really believe she's gonna pull this off.

[TAdams8591]

Given the establishment reaction to Christine's victory, and their criticism of her for several days thereafter, and their continued lack of support for her campaign, my opinion is based on fact.

If they wanted her to win, they would have reacted precisely as they would have, had Castle won. With congratulations and financial and verbal support.

Further, Castle's vicious attacks on her in the campaign, coupled with the negative reaction from the establishment when Christine won, made her a far more vulnerable prey to attacks from the left in the general election. If Christine loses the establishment will say, "See we told you she couldn't win," when by failing to provide the necessary support and engaging in harmful attacks against her they helped her to lose.

I've witnessed the bias against good conservatives endorsed by the party who are victorious in the primary, from supporters of conservatives who were not party endorsed and lost in the primary. And the bias of the establishment when their candidate loses to another candidate not endorsed by the Republican party. Neither wants the victorious candidate to win. To claim otherwise is intellectually dishonest.

BTW, let's not forget about the hypocrisy of leftist establishment Republican Murkowski who just HAD to wage a write in campaign, when she lost to Joe Miller.

Both groups are impediments to Republican victories.

[TAdams8591]

Tea Party Express conducted a poll which came out two days ago which has Christine 6 points behind Coons.For what it’s worth, their polls during the primary were exactly right.

[TAdams8591]

"I am nauseated by Castle, Murkowski, Crist and their ilk of sore losers."

They are ALL true RINO's and I don't use the term loosely.

[smoothsailing]

Thanks, I knew about the TPX poll, but I havn’t seen any followup breakdown and analysis.

[truthfreedom]

http://gawker.com/5674333/i-had-a-one+night-stand-with-christine-odonnell-+-photos/gallery/1

Have you seen the gawker thing? We know as much about Christine O’Donnell than anybody. Maybe not Palin.
But Christine O’Donnell is being presented as a more complete person than anyone, even including the movie stars who are discussed endlessly. Lindsey Lohan for instance, I don’t really pay attention, but we don’t really know about her that much. Does drugs I guess. But we don’t really have a first hand account of the person who did lots of drugs with Lindsey Lohan.

I agree that it’s inappropriate to talk about those things, but it really does help paint a more complete portrait of Christine. And some of it isn’t what she wants the message to be, but it does humanize her in a positive way.

And there’s the sexism angle that NOW was nice to put out there. Maybe this controversy will help with women. Polling indicates that women haven’t been responding as much to Christine.

[TAdams8591]

We don't need Washington-based groups to organize us locally. They're far more of a problem then a solution.

They need to get out of the way, and let the grassroots at the local level evolve naturally.

As far as help to campaigns, Tea Party Express is closest to having it right. They are the most effective Tea Party, if not conservative group in the country. Their direct efforts translated to winning elections.

[Art in Idaho]

- 5 with 5 days to go. No Sweat! Christine you can do this!! We're with you!! Hang in there and campaign like your life depends on it. This is War for the survival of our Great Republic! Our prayers and best wishes are with you!

[itssme]

The word “flee” does come to mind, and perhaps that is what we may have to consider, as Illinois is slipping into the abyss Detroit style. Yes, I've heard a lot about Tom Tancredo and what he's been doing, and its nothing short of terrific. The best we can do here in Chicago is to vote for RINO Republican Mark Kirk for Governor. From past experience he can't be trusted, but he's all we've got, and we will lean on him if he begins to disappoint.

If the Chicago White Sox were able to win the pennant a few years ago, and nearly cause me to stroke when they did, out of pure shock, the Texas Ranger have as good a shot at a win. The power of positive thought!

We have much to look forward to on November 2, and good must prevail over evil. George Washington lost many a battle, until he won the war. It's up to us to do the same. God bless us all.

[antceecee]

AP: (”we hope-a-hope-a-hope”)

[fortheDeclaration]

You mean a Marxist?

[fortheDeclaration]

Fairleigh Dickinson University-PublicMind

College poll-enough said.

[fortheDeclaration]

Could you have put the headlines any bolder?

[fortheDeclaration]

Seriously, taking a college poll seriously?

[jersey117]

I saw her on Hannity last night and was quite impressed. She’s smart, soft-spoken and has a powerful message. Unfortunately, that message is overshadowed by the personal attacks on her.

[heiss]

have you seen a single even semi-credible poll her not losing by double-digits?

Me neither.

[hampdenkid]

Thanks for sharing that. And you may be right about TPE. I guess that because of all my years in Washington, I still look to that as the source of political expertise. And that is wrong.

[mrsmith]

Photos from Steele-RNC “Fire Pelosi” rally in Delaware.

http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/gallery?Avis=BL&Dato=20101028&Kategori=PHOTOS01&Lopenr=10280803&Ref=PH

Fired up looking bunch of volounteers!