Posted on 10/27/2010 11:04:01 AM PDT by MissesBush
New polling data indicates that Pennsylvania Republican Senate hopeful Pat Toomey has regained the lead he held for months, thanks largely to continued strength among independent voters.
After Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak closed the gap recently to take a narrow lead in the competitive race, Toomey surged back ahead this week, according to the state’s two largest polling institutes. A Franklin & Marshall College survey released Wednesday morning showed Toomey leading by seven points among likely voters, 43 percent to 36 percent.
That finding substantiated movement in the Muhlenberg College daily tracking poll, which swung 11 points in the span of a week—from a 3-point edge for Sestak last Wednesday to an 8-point lead for Toomey on Tuesday. That advantage leveled out to five points in the tracking poll on Wednesday.
By all accounts, the race remains close as the candidates enter a homestretch packed with furious retail campaigning. A Reuters poll earlier in the week showed the race tied, with each candidate winning 46 percent of likely voters.
But taken together, the latest polling data seemed to signal that Sestak's surge was in large part due to solidified support among his own party, and that Toomey was still performing well with the critical bloc of independent voters.
“There was no sudden movement in the polls benefitting Sestak,” Toomey pollster Jon Lerner wrote earlier in the week, in a memo obtained by POLITICO. “Rather it was the common and expected phenomenon of strong partisan Democrats moving back to their party’s candidate.”
I agree, he was never behind. He should pull this out without much effort.
I hope on election night we find a lot of the angst and worry was based on propaganda and this truly is a conservative tsunami.
I listen to 104.7 here in Pittsburgh. This channel has Quinn&Rose, Beck, Rush, Hannity and Savage.
The unions have been carpet-bombing this channel with a really dumb “Greed is Good” anti-Toomey commercial, every 2 minutes or so.
I just chuckle thinking they are wasting their money on this station.
Sestak is Sandy Berger’s boy.
Yeah, the Dems’ ads are getting pathetic. Grist for the laughter mill. hehe
I have to laugh here in California with Jerry Brown wasting money running ads during Rush’s show. As if that moron would get a single Rush fan voting for him. But hey, waste that money! And by the way, the unions are really ones to accuse others of greed. Few organizations have institutionalized it and damaged the nation with it as accutely as have labor unions.
I heard that commercial as well, listening to "The Big Talker," WPHT in Philly (I can hear it all the way down here in VA). It decried all those e-e-e-e-v-i-l-l-l-l Wall Street people and their supposed connections to Toomey.
The dems have nothing left, but to attack the GOPers and their families, and cry "racism" everytime they're challenged.
The bad trend right now is WV, which has inched toward the D camp.
It’s Manchin +3 over Raese with Rasmussen and Manchin +6 with PPP.
Hopefully, that swings back in the next few days. The Senate is definitely in play. It’s in a narrow range between a 52-48 Democrat and a 52-48 Republican with 51-49 likely in either direction.
Your lips to God’s ear.
PPP is a KOS poll. I wouldn’t lose much sleep over that race. WV is going to go for Raese, I’m positive of it. Obama’s approval rating in WV is I believe 27%. That’s a huge millstone around the neck of Manchin, that and the fact he now has an ethics investigation brewing against him: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2615325/posts.
The race that worries me that we had in the bag is Colorado. That one has gotten scary close after Buck’s horrible Meet the Press debate performance.
You can safely ignore any PPP poll at this point in the campaign - they are all designed to motivate Democrats to vote. They do so by assuming the turnout numbers for a favorable year for Democrats (in this case, the internals I reviewed matched 2008 final poll numbers almost exactly). This year is going to be much different; I promise.
Has there been any news or developments in the last couple weeks to make these polls swing so wildly? Or do the polls just suck?
I’m not really worried about CO, it’s a lot like Illinois and Nevada now, Buck has a consistent lead. I have a feeling that Tancredo’s going to pull off a huge upset in the governor’s race as well.
WV troubles me because it’s not just PPP. It’s Rasmussen and a university poll. The trendline is troubling.
Lots and lots of people are pissed this year because soooo many of the ads are filled with brazen lies.
I really think Raese is going to be fine. A few polls Freepers have posted this week have him up outside the margin of error.
Basically the polls suck. Toomey has had a consistent lead in this race all throughout. A poll that suddenly comes on the scene showing Sleazestak ahead can be safely assumed to be an outlyer poll using a faulty turnout model.
Sestak:
(1) Endorsed by the Brady Campaign
(2) Voted for ObamaCare
(3) Voted for cap and trade
and he wonders why he is losing.
Very good news, indeed!
Funny how the people on Fox for instance,seem to accept every new poll as gospel? I always find that amazing! What`s even more amazing is the people that have fallen for this poll averaging? The results on Tuesday will not be averaged, at least I hope not.
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