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Would a Beaten Obama Attack Iran?
Real Clear World ^

Posted on 10/27/2010 9:35:00 AM PDT by jhpigott

10/26/10 By George Friedman We are a week away from the 2010 U.S. midterm elections. The outcome is already locked in. Whether the Republicans take the House or the Senate is close to immaterial. It is almost certain that the dynamics of American domestic politics will change. The large majority held by the Democrats will be gone, and party discipline will not be strong enough (it never is) to prevent some defections.

Obama now has two options in terms of domestic strategy. The first is to continue to press his agenda, knowing that it will be voted down. If the domestic situation improves, he takes credit for it. If it doesn't, he runs against Republican partisanship. The second option is to abandon his agenda, cooperate with the Republicans and re-establish his image as a centrist. Both have political advantages and disadvantages and present an important strategic decision for Obama to make.

The Foreign Policy Option

Obama also has a third option, which is to shift his focus from domestic policy to foreign policy. The founders created a system in which the president is inherently weak in domestic policy and able to take action only when his position in Congress is extremely strong. This was how the founders sought to avoid the tyranny of narrow majorities. At the same time, they made the president quite powerful in foreign policy regardless of Congress, and the evolution of the presidency over the centuries has further strengthened this power. Historically, when the president has been weak domestically, one option he has had is to appear powerful by focusing on foreign policy.

The Iranian Option

This leaves the obvious choice: Iran. Iran is the one issue on which the president could galvanize public opinion.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearworld.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: airstrikes; china; democrats; egypt; energy; france; germany; iran; israel; lebanon; obama; oil; opec; saudiarabia; syria; turkey; unitedkingdom
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To: jhpigott

A man with no balls, once beaten, still has no balls.


41 posted on 10/27/2010 10:02:07 AM PDT by Mariner (USS Tarawa, VQ3, USS Benjamin Stoddert, NAVCAMS WestPac, 7th Fleet, Navcommsta Puget Sound)
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To: Hardraade

I didn’t say I agree with the all the time, but most take them pretty seriously. Care to elaborate on your “lol”??


42 posted on 10/27/2010 10:03:34 AM PDT by jhpigott
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To: jhpigott
In the past, it would be reasonable, if not entirely predictable to expect an American president who was floundering in domestic matters to move to "change the subject" to foreign affairs.

This is true for at least two reasons. First: traditionally, there has been far more unity between the parties on crucial matters of state than on domestic priorities. But also: in the past, our Presidents were required to have a decent grounding in foreign affairs as a means of achieving a minimum standard of electability.

Neither of these conditions currently exist in the America of 2010. The Democrat Party has increasingly signed on to a radicalized view of the world in which America is not even a potent but flawed force for good, but a international pariah guilty of multitudinous sins against the developing world, including colonialism, exploitation and racism.

And Barack Obama, for his own part, was nominated and elected to the most powerful office in the land and perhaps, still in the world without any demonstration of basic proficiency in international affairs, diplomacy or military doctrine. Instead, he displayed in the campaign (and continues to display, two years into his Presidency) a superficial and academic understanding of the world; one shot through with platitudes and left-wing shibboleths, but containing nothing that reveals either wisdom or the sort of instinct that might inform it.

This being the case, I find it doubtful that Obama would be willing to do anything of a military nature with regard to Iran except in the case of a direct attack on the United States, and even then - his visceral lack of comprehension when combined with ideological rigidity would almost certainly lead to paralysis. And do not think for a moment that our adversaries have not taken a measure of the man and, I would offer, come to similar conclusions.

43 posted on 10/27/2010 10:04:08 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (America does not need to be organized: it needs to be liberated.)
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To: jhpigott

Not a snowballs chance in hell in my opinion. This guy wouldn’t attack even if we were directly attacked. He’d apologize...


44 posted on 10/27/2010 10:05:52 AM PDT by b4its2late (Ignorance allows liberalism to prosper.)
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To: jhpigott
It is more likely that Iran will attack us than Obama which will be tied up in all sorts of investigations and suits.
45 posted on 10/27/2010 10:06:00 AM PDT by mountainlion (concerned conservative.)
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To: PMAS

He is from the Chicago political machine - ALL he wants is to be re-elected.


46 posted on 10/27/2010 10:06:31 AM PDT by jhpigott
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To: jhpigott

We will have to agree to disagree then.


47 posted on 10/27/2010 10:09:10 AM PDT by airborne (Why is it we won't allow the Bible in school, but we will in prison? Think about it.)
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To: Carley

“Would a Beaten Obama Attack Iran?”

It’s far more likely that Iran would attack a Beaten Obama. What have they got to lose? Either The One does nothing—a big, big win for the global jihad—or he tries to hit back, and the ensuing chaos puts oil at $300/barrel. The entire left wing of his party rises up in open revolt against “the warmonger.” The newly elected conservative Republicans demand his impeachment, the RINOs and Blue Dogs cave, and there’s nowhere left to hide. He hands the desk drawer keys to Vice-President Bite Me, resigns, and returns to the golf course.


48 posted on 10/27/2010 10:11:18 AM PDT by Clioman
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To: colorado tanker
President Obama would have to be VERY DESPARATE IN THE EXTREME to go against his natural tendency to bow, submit, appease, whine, beg, give in, crawl, roll over and play dead to any nation that seeks the US harm. He would, literally have to completely change who and what he is in order to launch a strike and then, what would he do with his Nobel Peace prize? No, he could never live with himself if he did the right thing, (attack Iran now).
49 posted on 10/27/2010 10:11:18 AM PDT by Netz
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To: jhpigott

Oh dear Lord.

When I glanced at the headline, I saw this....

Would a Beaten Obama Attack Israel?

And I thought; Yeah. That could happen.


50 posted on 10/27/2010 10:11:40 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd (Yes, as a matter of fact, what you do in your bedroom IS my business.)
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To: jhpigott

After the election, the much smaller surving Dem caucuses in Congress will be much more liberal, hard left, and anti-war..he’d be at war with his own party AND the GOP..


51 posted on 10/27/2010 10:13:03 AM PDT by ken5050 (I don't need sex.....the government screws me every day..)
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To: Cicero

That’s what I think. See post 50.


52 posted on 10/27/2010 10:13:11 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd (Yes, as a matter of fact, what you do in your bedroom IS my business.)
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To: jhpigott

” and the natural choice would be to go after Iran. “

In which case, we might be treated to the interesting spectacle of a Republican Congress voting *against* a war declaration or authorization - and, perhaps, even invoking the (Constitutionally suspect) War Powers Act....


53 posted on 10/27/2010 10:13:41 AM PDT by Uncle Ike (Rope is cheap, and there are lots of trees...)
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To: Responsibility2nd

It would be more subtle than that.

A surprise strike on Israel by Iran and the US would do NOTHING!!!


54 posted on 10/27/2010 10:16:53 AM PDT by sodpoodle (Despair; man's surrender. Laughter; God's redemption.)
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To: jhpigott

Obama wears mama-jeans... send a real man... send in the worms...:^)


55 posted on 10/27/2010 10:18:36 AM PDT by BigFinn (I love the smell of teabags in the morning.)
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To: jhpigott

I think he’s angling for Secretary General of the UN. His presidency is just his chance to show he’s qualified by proving he can run a world power like it’s a third world rat hole.


56 posted on 10/27/2010 10:19:30 AM PDT by tacticalogic
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To: jhpigott

Iraq and Afghaniastn are going so well that with a little bit of ingenuity the US could open up a third front in the war to bankrupt the US.


57 posted on 10/27/2010 10:21:12 AM PDT by Sawdring
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Comment #58 Removed by Moderator

To: Netz
Say what you will (and I have) about Bill Clinton, but he is very shrewd and is one of the most skilled politicians I've ever seen. He knew how to turn on a dime and save a two term presidency after 1994. In my opinion, Obama is a stupid and stubborn man and will not be able to set aside the world view he was steeped in by his mother, grandparents, Ivy League schools, Ayers, Wright, ACORN and the rest. I may be wrong, but I see him being his own worst enemy the next two years.
59 posted on 10/27/2010 10:29:00 AM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: jhpigott

doing so would wipe-out whatever support remains from his leftist base, and would not gain him support from our side on any other issue.


60 posted on 10/27/2010 10:29:28 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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