Posted on 10/27/2010 8:46:27 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
At KeyHouseRaces we have been logging the lastest polls for the House races in play since early September. Although we initialy posted both Dem and GOP internal polls we gave that idea up when we started to recognize that, in general, these polls were highly skewed in favor of the party doing the polling. The Nate Silver estimate for that skewing is about 6 points. That would put Dem and GOP polls 12 points apart when polling the same district. Posting these is clearly a waste of time.
So we don't post internal polls anymore, even the friendly ones.
Here are the 46 polls that we've collected in the last week including those from The Hill that were just released. 28 of these show a GOP lead, 14 show a Dem lead and 4 are tied. There are 9 GOP polls where the candidate is over the 50% mark. The Dems have 2 in that category. And worth noting is the fact that many of the Dem leads show the GOP candidate closing the race.
Particularly worth noting: GA-08, TX-17, SC-05, FL-02 and NY-20.
Unfortunately, this probably means ObaMao's misery hasn't sufficiently affected the Dakotas yet.
It probably hasn’t. Every time I see one of those time-lapse unemployment pics of the nation, the area in north-central stays most-employed. They really might not know what’s happening elsewhere.
It looks like Pomeroy's vote for ObamaCare has overcome the traditional state dislike of "Imperial Cass" and put him 10 points behind.
Cook has basically said that an incumbent, in a close race..even if trailing, is listed as toss-up unless he/she has been indicted..which explains why he’s hedging on a lot of races...calling them toss-ups...any way of goign back to get his predictions the last week before 1994, and see which races he called toss-up back then, and how they turned out?
OK, Pat..I’m asking..give me/us your thoughts on the DEL senate race..and a prediction...much has been said lately that Coon’s newfound willingness to extend ALL the Bush tax cuts means that the race is tight...
Just wanted to point out the MS-02 JMC poll of LV’s that had Thompson-D 42% and Marcy-R at 41%. Don’t know if it’s an internal or not, but an incumbent sitting at 42% at this point is not in good shape at all.
Also there was a recent poll showing WA-09 close and it was pooh-poohed.
SurveyUSA has one today showing Muri-R trailing Smith-D by only 3 pts. - 49%-46%.
So the first poll wasn’t a fluke after all.
The Dakotas have low unemployment rates compared to the rest of the country. Don’t know what’s up there that keeps people employed.
I see signs that folks in the mountain states, MT, ID, CO are on the warpath.
I second that. I am still angry at myself for writing Donnelly a letter prior to the final vote thanking him for his pro-life stance in opposing the Insurance Bill. As Roger Daltry says, "We won't get fooled again."
1. Coal
2. Oil
A lot of pundits are hedging, but that’s not the problem here...Let’s look at CA-20. It’s a staggering +10R (52-42)in the survey/usa poll on Oct 25th. All the pundits should rank that as a toss-up or better. BUT many still have him as dark blue. They haven’t updated their predictions yet. For example Sabato’s update is from the 21st. Thus KHR also lags.
:)My plan too.
BUMP
Well hiya Ken,
And I do have a moment.
First, an unusual thing going on here in the swamps this week. Don’t know what to make of it but I’ll throw it out there. We begin with that like the rest of the country, Delaware has many elections going on. Y’all know about the Christine O’Donnell (COD) /Coons race no doubt. And as I mentioned upthread, there’s the little known but very important House race...for good ole Mike Castle’s seat. Del only has one REP in America’s House and it is, as these things go, more powerful than Del senate seats. So Rep Urquhart, who I really like, is going against former Del loot-Gov...John Carney.
All this week the Democratic candidates have just, boom, not shown up for scheduled debates. It’s just the oddest thing. In the case of Coons, he just refuses to have any more debates with COD. John Carney was a no show at a recent debate and another local race involving Pete Schwartzkopf...yeah son of former Desert Storm General, Pete was a no show too. Pete’s a Dem., radical, right here in Sussex county and Sussex county ain’t Wilmington. The Sussex GOP, which DOES do stuff and IS Conservative, just for an oddity, is throwing everything to get this guy outta the hell Sussex county where the air is beautiful and life is good.
Don’t know what this means but everyone political round here is wondering what the heck ...? SCHEDULED debates...serious...just not showing up. Looks to me like some very orchestrated thing on the part of the Dems but I’m baffled. None of them going out in public...weird.
In the grid provided upthread, as I was corrected, it shows this seat leaning Dem. While I questioned that once informed, I tend to agree it’s probably leaning Dem.
For Delaware, let’s get those pesky statistics out of the way...is around 2/3 registered Dems against 1/3 registered pubs. There is a HUGE base of Indies here in Del, just to note. The Del population is a little less than 3/4 from up around Wilmington and the environs of Philadelphia. A little more than 25% of Delaware population comes from Kent and Sussex counties. Kent and Sussex counties consist of semi-rural, farm like abodes and are very conservative.
Given those numbers as I listed above, it’ll take some going against the grain to get a pub elected to either Senator or as Del. only Rep in the House. Keeping in mind that RINO Mike Castle managed to win for some eight years as the Rep. Keeping in mind that RINO Mike Castle voted Dem on practically every issue and damn, I could win as Rep if I called myself a pub but voted Dem.
and yet it is that very odd scenario which is creating problems for the Dems as well as the pollsters as regards Delaware. Because for the past at least two elections, it really never mattered if the welfare class in and around Wilmington bothered to vote. Mike Castle was just fine with the Del. Dems. The Kent and Sussex county voters would trudge to the polls to hold their nose and vote for Castle to keep whatever ridiculous Dem nominated from winning. Joe Biden won since 1972 because...well he’s a known name. Delaware has few folks really BORN here. Folks move into Delaware to escape the oppressive property taxes of nearby NJ and Merryland and the like. The mean well but all they know at first is Biden and here’s a guy been around, got a nice smile...seems like a nice fellow. Well yeah he’s an idiot, but he’s OUR idiot.
Point of all this is that for many, many years most the only folks voting in Delaware were Conservatives, Republicans, Independents. Democrats didn’t have to vote much and a large percentage of that group just stayed home. The Dems weren’t moved to get out the vote, pay a pack of ciggies to get them to the polls. The rest of Del would carry the water, get out and vote, and in the end the Dem guy as desired would win.
As an aside, 2008 was an exception to this dynamic. The Dems in Delaware came out and pulled the levers for the OBama/Biden ticket cause a)they really liked Obama and b)adding Biden to the ticket was just whipped cream on the pie.
However, comes the midterms, and Obama’s not on the ticket, and with midterms being boring anyway, and no big deal of interest....the Dems have a big problem in little Delaware.
Cause go with me on this, the Kent and Sussex countians....yeah man they’ll sure come out to vote, like they do every election, but they’re NOT going to vote for either Dem Carney or Coons. I got a bridge to sell cheap anybody thinks they will.
So the Dems gotta get their people out to vote and folks, it ain’t gonna be easy. No Obama or Biden on the ticket, a really lackluster Coons midget nothing burger, an entrenched politico like John Carney....there’s not much worth losing some good sleep over to the big mass of Wilmington Dems that could overtake the statistically challenged Repubs in this race.
Finally, and thanks for indulging me but you did ask, I know that most of the upcoming elections depend on turnout. But Delaware is more dependent on turnout than any of the states I daresay. Delaware has a HUGE group of voters who never much had to bother with that voting thing.
I conclude that the upcoming Del Senate/House races will be close. I do know that Obama/Biden came to Delaware, not so much to move the base, but to meet with the mighty unions, which is a big force in this little state, to get out there and get those people to the polls.
It’s an intriguing scenario, caused by Delaware’s formerly politically uninformed population and the lack of need to get the Dems to the polls. The entire American population is infinitely more informed than before and yeah we’ve had plenty of Tea Parties in Delaware.
Everything’s changed this year and I suspect the polls are erratic and entirely undependable. Which is why no one really wants to go out on any limbs.
I do think a that “leaning Dem” designation is probably spot on.
I do NOT think that Delaware is a lock for the Democrats.
Thanks for the ping. Yay for Texas-17. Chet is going down!
Weird, though. Rural DE seems stuck in some kind of time warp, baby! Kindly inform whatever voters you run across this weekend that neither Truman nor Eisenhower is running this time and that LBJ died.
BTW, how could anyone who honorably completed 3rd Grade consider letting Joe Biden leave his room, never mind run for office? What's with your people? BTW, how does the pheasant hunting look? Coons? Is that genetic damage? Inbreeding? What? That boy ain't right.
Ohhh Yeahhhhhh, Hey thanks - I really like that idea!
Nice essay..we shall see..
Thus KHR also lags.
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That is indeed our fate - We live and die with our “Experts”. Hopefully they will catch up with the polls at the end. We’ll know in a few days. KHR will have an update post this Saturday and we’ll do a Monday final update if there are any changes coming from the “Experts” over the weekend.
It sounds like entrenched politicians tend to stay entrenched in DE, at least until this latest primary where a fixture like Castle got booted. I realize it wasn’t an open primary but it sounds like DE is not immune to what’s happening in the other 56, I mean 49.
These dims all of a sudden deciding not to debate is strange. I’m guessing their internals are showing a precarious lead and the earlier debates haven’t been at all helpful. Coons may be one of the most uninspiring candidates I’ve ever seen run for anything at anytime, anywhere. I think the more the electorate sees and hears Coons the less likely they’ll be to go out and pull the lever for him. I just can’t believe turnout is going to be good for the D’s.
Finally, does DuPont carry enough weight up there for his endorsement to mean anything for the less motivated indies and pubbies?
I disagree. While I think the actual races are much tighter in DE than the polls suggest, the unions will nevertheless get out the vote for John Carney in New Castle County. Coons, whom the union members justifiably dislike, gets to go along for the ride.
O’Donnell and Urquhuart are both likely to lose. Carney would not be running (mostly) positive ads if he were in any jeopardy. Hopefully the Democratic tide will not take Bonini down with them, because Colin deserves to win.
Each party leaves something on the table in every election cycle. Like NY State, the Delaware GOP has destroyed itself this cycle.
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