Posted on 10/26/2010 5:43:28 AM PDT by Kaslin
It looks like an uphill climb for Republicans to take the necessary 10 seats to gain control of the Senate, but the probability of significant gains is still high.
Pretty much every serious analyst is now projecting that the Republicans will take control of the House, gaining more than the 39 seats they need to win. The forecasts from Larry Sabato, Stuart Rothenberg, Charles Cook, Nate Silver, Jay Cost, and the RealClearPolitics.com average show a range between a 45- and a 61-seat net gain for the GOP. The numbers have been rising as Election Day nears.
But the battle for control of the Senate is a different story, with many close races and greater uncertainty today than was the case a few weeks back.
If the Republican candidates lose every close race, they would pick up only four net Senate seats to get to 45 total seats. If they have a very good day, and run the table in all the closely contested seats, they could gain as many as 11 to get to 52.
Here is my assessment on where the close races now stand.
GOP held seats
The GOP candidates hold solid leads in all of the open seats to replace GOP senators — Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire, Kansas, Florida, and Kentucky — and in the two contested incumbent seats in North Carolina and Louisiana. The Ohio race is now a blowout for Rob Portman, which may help the GOP in many of the state’s hard-fought House races.
The Kentucky race between Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Jack Conway appeared to tighten a week back, but a Conway ad attacking Paul for some alleged college misbehavior has backfired on the Democrat. That said, while Kentucky has given big wins to GOP candidates for president in the last three elections, races for senator have been regularly very close. Paul should win, but this race will likely remain closer than the others listed above.
Certain GOP pickups
The Democrats have all but conceded that they will lose the open seat races in North Dakota (a 30-point lead for Governor John Hoeven) and Indiana (a near 20-point lead for former Senator Dan Coats), and that Congressman John Boozman will win easily against Democrat Senator Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas.
GOP leads
Since he won the Republican nomination, Ron Johnson has maintained a six- or seven-point lead over Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold. One poll last week showed Johnson’s lead at only 2 %, but no other survey has confirmed that the race is that close. It is very rare for a candidate to win after being down six or seven points in the polls this late in the race.
In Pennsylvania, until last week, former Republican Congressman Pat Toomey held a similar sized lead over Democrat Congressman Joe Sestak for Arlen Specter’s open seat. A few new polls showed the race was a tie, or even put Sestak ahead by a small margin. However, that “trend” seems to have reversed (there was a burst of new ads for Toomey blasting Sestak last weekend), and Toomey seems to have regained control of the race (he has moved from a three-point deficit to a five-point lead in the Morning Call daily tracking poll). He has a narrower lead than Johnson holds in Wisconsin, but this race is leaning to Toomey.
Tossups leaning to the GOP
In two of the four pure tossup races, GOP candidates seem to have solidified their position in the last week. Illinois GOP Congressman Mark Kirk has been ahead in the last four surveys, by 2 to 4%, and now seems to have opened up a bit of daylight on Democrat Alexi Giannoulias. Illinois is a very solid blue state, though the GOP seems poised to have its best year since 1998. Each side has run mostly negative ads against the other candidate, perhaps a partial explanation for why there are still a healthy number of undecided voters, or voters leaning to third party candidates. A “none of the above” option (which is on the ballot in Nevada) might win 5% in Illinois this year. Nate Silver rates Kirk as just shy of a 2 to 1 favorite, which sounds about right.
In Nevada, GOP candidate Sharron Angle has held small leads (two to three points) in the last few public polls, and was generally considered to have won the only debate she had with Senator Harry Reid. Early voting numbers have been favorable to the GOP in Nevada (as in many other states), though this race is still very close, and a higher than expected Hispanic turnout could lift Reid to victory. Reid has been damaged by Nevada’s high unemployment rate and the unpopularity of the health care reform bill he championed .
In Colorado, the GOP candidate, Ken Buck, has seen his lead over appointed Senator Michael Bennet nearly disappear. Buck had a poor performance in his debate with Bennet and may be suffering from the strong numbers being posted by Tom Tancredo, the independent candidate for governor, who has pulled into second place, running what is perceived as an anti-immigrant campaign. Tancredo’s rise in the governor’s race could get more Hispanics to vote, which could mean a boost to Bennet in a very close race.
Silver rates both Angle and Buck as about 2 to 1 favorites, though I think Angle is in slightly stronger shape.
Pure tossup
West Virginia is so close that Nate Silver’s model shows Democrat Governor Joe Manchin ahead by 0.01% over Republican John Raese. This is in many ways the hardest race to forecast. Manchin is a very popular governor, but Barack Obama is very unpopular in West Virginia. Raese has, in effect, become the Nobama alternative — don’t give one more vote in the Senate to the Obama agenda. Recent polls show substantial leads for one or the other candidate — 10% for Manchin, 7% for Raese, and, in the most recent poll, 6% for Manchin. Democrats enjoy a huge registration advantage in West Virginia, as they do in many southern states, where many white voters have switched their party allegiance but not their party registration. The state gave both Bush in 2004 and McCain in 2008 a 13% margin of victory. I think this race leans ever so slightly to Manchin, but I would not place a wager on that guess.
Leans Democrat
With the exception of one poll by a GOP-leaning group, Barbara Boxer has maintained a small lead over Republican Carly Fiorina in every public poll, all by less than 5%, except for a Los Angeles Times poll that showed Boxer ahead by 8%. In this very blue state, the fact that Fiorina is so close is a measure of how much the political winds have shifted in two years. Boxer is pretty well known to California voters, and it is hard to figure there is much she can say or do in the next week to win more supporters. That might argue for a Fiorina upset, with undecided voters breaking her way. I doubt it will happen. This is one state where the unions are really invested in building turnout for the Democrats.
Washington state has been a frustration for the GOP. Dino Rossi, who lost two races for governor (he probably won the first one, but was out-lawyered, or out-“thefted,” by the King County Democrats), has consistently trailed Democrat Senator Patty Murray, in most surveys by two to five points. Most Washington voters cast their ballots before Election Day, so even a late Rossi surge would not enable him to recover among those who already voted.
If the GOP won all the closest races — Illinois, Colorado, Nevada, and West Virginia — plus the five in which GOP candidates hold bigger leads, the Republicans would get to 50 Senate seats. Then the Republicans could attempt to persuade Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson to pull a “Jim Jeffords” and switch parties, or get Joe Lieberman to remain an independent but begin to caucus with the Republicans. Both senators face difficult 2012 re-election battles.
But this scenario assumes the GOP gets to 50. I think the odds of that happening are less than 50-50. There have been several recent elections where one party or the other won almost all the close Senate races, and it could happen again. But I think there is a pretty good chance that at least one, and maybe two, among Nevada, Illinois, Colorado, and West Virginia could fall to the Democrats.
My best guess is the GOP gets to 48 or 49 in the Senate, right where most of the analysts are now converging in their forecasts.
...if Pajamas Media is still asking, then it’s probable.
I’d say 48 or 49 and would’t be too surprised if we ended up with 47. I hate being pessimistic and will vote and do everything I can but we’re a week away from the election and the races are moving in the wrong direction or remain toss ups. If we were going to take the Senate, I would think we’d see races like WA and CA moving in the GOP direction. Instead, we have races like PA moving in the Dem direction and others remaining toss ups. Toss up = Dems can win by playing their tricks.
The latest polls show Toomey up by 8 points.
I’ve read that every time the House has flipped, so did the Senate. I haven’t researched that myself beyond having read it more than once, but is does seem logical. If someone goes into the booth to vote a Democrat out of the House, they are probably going to vote for a Republican Senator if there is one on the ballot.
I’ve noticed something interesting this cycle. Precious few campaign signs have party affiliation on them. If there is part affiliation, it is Republican. I can’t recall seeing a single sign with a Donkey on it.
It also demonstrates very clearly that this election is not "in the bag", and that conservatives have to fight and scrabble for every last possible vote.
Turnout is the key; it will be extremely interesting to see how those numbers look after November 2nd. Will conservatives have put their "vote where their mouth is"....or not?
TEA Minus 7 Days and Counting.
If half the people who post these horse race threads get out and vote, we will prevail.
Dims want you complacent or discouraged just as long as you stay home!
48 with a Senator Angle sounds better than 50 with Reid still in the Senate if you ask me.
I’ll stand by my prediction that it ends up 50/50.
The reason the Senate would stay Dem is high turnout in urban districts whose House district is Dem regardless. The high turnout in a particular inner-city district won’t change the balance in the House but could tip a statewide Senate seat.
On 11/3, we’ll find out the answer to the question we have voiced thousands of times:
Oh, say does that star-spangled banner yet wave
O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave?
I predict, when the dust is settled, the GOP will have a gain of 6. Well short of a takeover, but enough to dent the 0bama agenda significantly.
Yep. We’re going to have a fairly clear idea of the future of this country by the morning of 3 Nov.
It’s the same way that Algore won the popular vote in 2000 but W won the EC.
The heavily GOP districts in the country are maybe 65/35 GOP to Dem, but the heavily Dem districts in some cities run as high as 85/15 Dem to GOP.
BTW, this guy was stellar and I am proud to call him my senator--now Harkin is another story.
Why does Iowa continue to reelect both Grassley and Harkin to the Senate?
FWIW, Grassley is more popular than Harkin. Grassley is untouchable but Harkin can be defeated.
I had the pleasure of walking with Grassley in a parade. It was wonderful. The people were thrilled to see him. He was getting applause, thumbs up, and hollering. He was smiling all the time and thanking the people. I know why he wins, he's a good man and he's likeable. He's one of us. He's a farmer and knows his roots. He's not an elite like Harkin.
All politics in America is not local but ultimately racial.
Interestingly a new poll just out shows Barbara boxer down by four. That game is not yet over and I think the Republicans still have a 50-50 chance of taking the Senate.
The bottom line is that two years ago the Dems gained a fillibuster proof majority in the Senate. They are on verge of becoming the minority party. Even if we fall one or two seats short, that is a MAJOR victory.
It is worth mentioning that the Republican senators we are getting will be on the whole more conservative. Thus, it will be much easier to hold together enough votes to sustain fillibusters. Voinovich will be gone. Murkowski, gone. Collins, Snowe, Graham and McCain are about the only RINOs left. I would rather have a more ideologically pure GOP Senate and be in the minority than a mish mash of RINOs and in the majority.
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