Posted on 10/18/2010 3:43:12 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
As I write this, the $64 question is how to appraise the Senate race in Delaware. If the public polls are to be believed, then the race is pretty much over, although Christine O'Donnell in the two most recent polls has narrowed the gap to 11 points (Rasmussen) and to 8 points (The Conservative Journal) as of October 14, with 17 days to go. Apparently the NRSC believes the polls and is not expending any money or providing any significant help to O'Donnell. But ARE the polls to be believed? How accurate have they proven so far this cycle? Or should we believe something else other than the public polls? Like our eyes.
FACEBOOK:
For example, her Facebook fan numbers. When I first began tracking her Facebook numbers back in early August, O'Donnell had about 3500 fans. (I had been following Joe Miller's race with Lisa Murkowski on Facebook and was struck by how he steadily gained, and eventually overtook, her, ending up with about twice her total.) I believe I first noted that O'Donnell started ahead of Castle in early August with about a 3500 to 2200 lead (which was a little surprising given his long tenure but which I discounted due to generational factors, her previous campaigns and the fact that, even then, her likability-it was evident to me- would attract more fans).
When I glanced at her numbers a month later on September 2, I noticed O’Donnell’s trajectory on Facebook had been even steeper than Miller's. During the month of August, her FB fans increased by about 2000 to 5632, while Castle was stuck in neutral. From September 2 until the primary (September 14)—just 12 days—she added 2500 (boosted as Miller had been) by the Sarah Palin endorsement. Castle again was flat, adding only about 100 FB fans the entire time.
The period since the primary is the most indicative of Christine O'Donnell's strength. In the space of a month, she has TRIPLED what was already a hefty total (25,633 versus 9495 for Coons). Joe Miller (by contrast) has been more or less flat since his primary and now has a little over 7000 FB fans, which also indicates he is in more of a race than he should be, given the dynamics in that race. O'Donnell's surge on Facebook (and her continued outpacing of Coons by nearly a 3-1 pace) is bad news indeed for Coons.
In a primary or off year election, INTEREST and its first cousin, INTENSITY, are the best indicators of electoral success. The polls are notoriously unreliable because the pollsters do not know WHO will show up to vote. Facebook helps to show who the actual voters are likely to be.
FUNDRAISING:
As has been reported Christine O'Donnell is has raised twice as much money ($3.8 million) as Coons in the last month. Again, as with Facebook, her massive 2-1 fundraising advantage is indicative of interest and intensity, which translates into voters on election day.
PUBLIC POLLS AND THE NRSC:
As I said, the public polls indicate that Coons is far ahead. Of course, the pollsters will admit that the accuracy of the polls is dependent on the accuracy of the turnout model. If the electorate is 37.4% Self identified conservative and 19% self identified liberal, as the 2009 Gallup numbers show for Delaware, 75% of the conservatives show up and vote for 'Donnell, while only 30% of the liberals show up (voting overwhelmingly for Coons), she needs only a decent showing with the moderates (who make up 40%)assuming they don't vote in greater proportions than the conservatives.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx
I mention the NRSC only to comment on their virtually unbroken string of failures this cycle. They have been beaten in Kentucky, Alaska, Nevada and Delaware (not to mention Utah). Their only success was in Hew Hampshire, where Sarah Palin actually had a far greater effect. Had it not been for Palin's endorsement, the non-NRSC candidate-Ovide Lamontagne-would likely have beaten the NRSC backed Kelly Ayotte. To the extent they have re-introduced themselves into General Election races, they have likely done more harm than good. They have obviously done nothing constructive for Joe Miller in Alaska and they haven't closed the sale for Sharron Angle in Nevada. If Miller and Angle are following NRSC advice, my advice to them, for what it's worth, is : STOP....NOW. These people are good at one thing...blowing elections which should be sure thing. And they are treacherous.
In fact, once the history of the Delaware Senate race is written, and Christine O'Donnell's victory is in the record book, I believe she should deliver to John Cornyn and the NRSC an engraved thank you note for staying out of Delaware.
I'm telling you Coons is a dour, completely forgettable, 2nd tier, awful candidate - and because it's Delaware he is still going to win relatively easily. Trying to base the outcome of an election on Facebook popularity is a waste of time.
There is no point in trying to change your mind. You see a lot of enthusiasm and think that is going to translate into a COD win. I think nationwide movement conservative excitement just isn't enough to change the fact that Delaware has been voting reliably liberal the last several cycles and will probably do so again this year. I hope I am wrong, we will see.
“I’m telling you Coons is a dour, completely forgettable, 2nd tier, awful candidate - and because it’s Delaware he is still going to win relatively easily....I think nationwide movement conservative excitement just isn’t enough to change the fact that Delaware has been voting reliably liberal the last several cycles and will probably do so again this year. I hope I am wrong, we will see.”
Then for all of the reasons you just stated, I guess WV is not competitive either? /sarc
Excellent, Brices. I have put BC’s analyses in the hands of some of the top reporters and editors in the country. That’s how highly I regard his talents. And I have been in this political game for a VERY long time.
I am sure you know that is a completely silly comparison.
West Virginia delivered 56% of its vote to John McCain for President in 2008. Delaware on the other hand gave 61.9% of its votes to Barrack Obama for President in 2008. WVA is a state trending more and more Republican, Delaware is a far left state and getting worse by the election cycle.
When was the last time WV elected a GOP senator? I don’t recall any in my lifetime. Do you?
What is the percentage of Dems to Republicans in WV? (Hint: They outnumber republicans 2 to 1). That hasn’t changed.
The GOP candidate Raese could not be lamer. He’s not likeable. He doesn’t relate well to the people of the state. He has a proven track record of losing. He is a millionaire that lives out of state. His company is not well liked as it has made millions off of the government in questionable highway contracts. He is the guy that the party consistently puts up when nobody else runs. Any other year, he would not stand a chance.
And no, 56% did not vote for John McCain in 08. I never met anyone that had a use for him. Not one person. That 56% voted for Sarah.
So I really don’t see how supporting COD is such a silly idea. Sounds to me like they are scared that people are more interested in supporting tea party folks than their hand picked establishment candidates.
“FUNDRAISING:
As has been reported Christine O’Donnell is has raised twice as much money ($3.8 million) as Coons in the last month. Again, as with Facebook, her massive 2-1 fundraising advantage is indicative of interest and intensity, which translates into voters on election day.”
No.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2010/10/15/odonnell-outpaces-coons-in-fund-raising/
“raising more than twice as much money in the three months ending Sept. 30”
During most of that quarter she was in a primary, he was waiting to be sacrificed to Castle. Hard to draw any more than that out of the numbers.
(Not to call the WSJ mistaken- but Coons’ Sept numbers are not on the FEC site.)
Interestingly Coons is drawing quite a bit of establishment Dem independent expenditures (which are reported) since then- a million from the DSCC and Actblue. “During the last two weeks alone, the DSCC has spent $351,781 producing and running TV ads opposing O’Donnell. “http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2010/10/your-daily-dose-of-news-31.html
And lots of 10k donations from unions and other Party regulars, the recent Obama-Biden fundraiser...
I think it inescapapable to conclude Christine’s candidacy is drawing Dem funds from other races.
WVA also voted for the "compassionate conservative" Bush in 2000 and 2004 - and then McCain in 2008. It's clearly a state trending Republican. It's entrenched Dem incumbent Senators have hung on, but now that one of those Senate seats is open the liberals are having a hard time holding it because the state is moving to the right.
Delaware on the other hand has voted for Bill Clinton in 92, Bill Clinton in 96, Algore in 2000, Kerry in 2004, Obama in 2008. This is a deep blue state and shows no evidence that is it moving in any other direction but left. Castle is the kind of Republican that can win a statewide general election in Delaware, COD almost certainly can't.
Trying to compare WVA and Delaware is silly, and you should know better.
So I really don’t see how supporting COD is such a silly idea. Sounds to me like they are scared that people are more interested in supporting tea party folks than their hand picked establishment candidates.
I'd expect all Republicans to support her as she is the nominee, but don't get your hopes up. Your welcome to argue otherwise, but come election day I think you'll find she loses by around 10 points. It's just not going to be that close and no matter how much you wish it were otherwise - Delaware is a liberal voting state.
But who knows, I would love to be wrong. Perhaps a real tsunami election will end up rolling from Delaware to California - one that makes winners out of written-off underdogs like COD. It could happen that way. I don't see it in the polling data yet, but who knows.
“As has been reported Christine O’Donnell is has raised twice as much money ($3.8 million) as Coons in the last month. Again, as with Facebook, her massive 2-1 fundraising advantage is indicative of interest and intensity, which translates into voters on election day.”
No.”
Thank you . It is actually closer to 3-1 (3.9 million to 1.5 million) over three months. Don’t quite get your point. She is clobbering him and you are making excuses for why his fund raising is pathetic.
“Interestingly Coons is drawing quite a bit of establishment Dem independent expenditures (which are reported) since then- a million from the DSCC”
Ask yourself why. And why has Biden made three trips there? Because it is slipping away. That’s why. They couldn’t stop Mass from going GOP and they sure won’t stop Delaware.
“Delaware on the other hand gave 61.9% of its votes to Barrack Obama for President in 2008.”
Come on. Biden was on the ticket as a favorite son. Reagan won DE three times. How do you explain that if it is so liberal? Why has it changed from being so conservative.
DE is more conservative than liberal by about 2-1 according to Gallup.
Your reasoning comes from inside the beltway. And that is why the GOP will never understand WV. They never come here, talk to the people, build support, support the candidates. Primaries are usually unopposed. They always assume that we will always vote dem. Every now and then, some stategist says “Omigosh, we might be able to win a seat in WV!” Then they hold us up and say WV is a battleground and trending Republican. Kinda stupid after you’ve seen it the first couple times.
I remember last time Senator Byrd ran for reelection. Hugh Hewitt read the GOP talking points to all of his listeners and declared that Byrd’s seat was guaranteed to go Republican. That Byrd was so mired in scandal that he was guaranteed to lose. The stupid thing was, no GOP candidate had even declared to run against him yet. It was nothing but talk. Not even good propaganda. Byrd did not even campaign (he spent NO money) and still won with over 70% of the vote.
WV might vote Raese in, but it will have nothing to do with supporting the establishment GOP. They are not well liked here. We are just so sick of Obama that we do not wanna give his camp any support whatsoever. Perhaps the people in Delaware feel the same way.
You never did name the last GOP senator from WV.
When McCain releases his flying monkey daughter to bash C’O in the final days and on the same day that he’s out campaigning for Carly makes me think he’s worried she might win - otherwise why make that a priority near the end of the cycle?
In politics, business, projects, and any other sort of group endeavor, attitude determines your reality a large percentage of the time. In tight competitions, attitude makes all the difference in the world.
Attitude is contagious, whether optimistic or pessimistic.
Optimism creates energy and momentum, and attracts resources to your team effort.
Pessimism creates depression and resistance, and drives resources away from your team effort. It is poison.
O'Donnell will win, even in Delaware.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.