Election 2010: Nevada Senate - Angle Hits 50%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/18/10

[MissesBush]

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and his Republican challenger Sharron Angle remain locked in a tight race for the U.S. Senate in Nevada in the first survey following last Thursday night’s debate.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Angle with 50% to Reid’s 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate in the race, and one percent (1%) are undecided. (To see question wording, click here.)

The race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.

A week ago, Angle held an insignificant 49% to 48% lead in a contest that has been marked for months by its closeness. In seven of eight surveys prior to this one since July, Reid and Angle have been three points apart or less. Both have hit the 50% mark one time.

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Nevada was conducted on October 17, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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[Crichton]

They don’t balance their demographics to get a representative sample based on party I.D. and often over-poll Democrats as a result.

Lots of pollsters do this. There's nothing wrong with that approach. Let the party ID float and you could be wrong. Try to predict the party ID and you could still be wrong. Rasmussen takes something of a hybrid approach between the two. And he could still be wrong.

[Wooly]

Forget margin of error and all of the usual formulas that pollsters use.
Remember pollsters use HISTORICAL data to interpret the current data they collect. This includes past election outcome, party affiliation, actual voter vote counts compared to registered voters, and the actual vote split versus the projected vote split. This year it is looking like that data is actually making the races look closer than they are.
I would not be surprised to see the Democrats, after the election, be in only double digits, but the Senate to be Republican controlled that with just a hand full of Democrat defections could override a Presidential veto.
And do not forget that if this comes true, you can always count on a Democrat to stand-up for his beliefs and become a RINO and give the Republicans an overwhelming majority (after all Spector was a Democrat before he became a Republican and a Republican before he became a Democrat.

[GOPsterinMA]

You're very right! I know families that have fractionated due in large part to disagreements over politics.

[Crichton]

Forget margin of error and all of the usual formulas that pollsters use.

So mathematics doesn't apply this year?

I thought it was Democrats who didn't care about learning fundamentals?

[ex-Texan]

Look at this headline from FOX News:

Obama Voters 'Scared,' Not Thinking About Election

And take a peek at this new video from Gerald Celente on the link below:

Gerald Celente Forecasts Massive Protests In 2011 and 2012

Just like I predicted in several previous posts on FR. One example from the 30th of September, 2010 , although this is not the best one. But liberal shills, masked as 'conservatives,' crawled out from under rocks to throw stones at me as usual.

Get ready for martial law to be imposed by executive order folks. National Guard troops have been drilling for months on taking over local governments.

[BossLady]

I had a 'door to door' Democratic pollster yesterday ask me -

Who are you voting for Senate race - Harry Reid or Sharron Angle?

When are you voting - before the election or on election day?

As the polite kid was using his iPhone Ap to enter my answer he says...under his breath...'another one AGAINST Harry Reid'. LOL!

[The KG9 Kid]

“The man is pond scum, kid.”

[Parley Baer]

Woooo-hoooo! Good news. 50% is a magic number and lets hope she continues to climb no matter how small.

[Gabrial]

Guess what Harry?

The millions of Americans that you and Barack ignored when they marched on Washington or attended Tea Parties across the nation all have checkbooks aimed at putting you in the unemployment line.

Can you hear us now? We are barely getting started.

Your rent-a-mobs won't save you now.

[ken5050]

Not so much a fool, but I think all those years in the Senate, talking to an empty chamber..he lapsed into old habits..

[MissesBush]

Seems suspicious. Never heard of a door to door pollster. That’s not even scientific. Makes me wonder what the Dems are up to.

[Wooly]

Mathematics still apply, but the past data does not.
To put it another way, mathematically CO2 concentration and warming of the climate go hand in hand until, as we found out this past year, you add in the historical data and then it all crumbles. SO in this case they made adjustments to the data to support the conclusion.
My point was just that that the historical data set the pollsters use to define their data is flawed because the assumptions are based on 50 years of election data and during that 50 years there has not been any midterm election like we are seeing.

[MissesBush]

Disagree, esp. in this election where you could more accurately balance party ID based on predicted outcome than simply letting it float. Clearly Republicans and independents are going to be more likely to turn out. The hybrid approach would be going off of actual registration numbers which is still more accurate than just letting it float.

[BossLady]

Yes, I thought it was weird until I was talking to my neighbor who said someone came around last month with same kind of questions.

The kid had a Nevada Democrat Party Badge that looked like a back stage pass at a Dixie Chicks/James Taylor Concert....LOL! ;)

[Crichton]

Gallup, for example, lets party ID float, and shows a ~15 point generic ballot gap.

Are you insisting that they should instead force a 5 or 10 point, or a 25 point gap?

[NYRepublican72]

I’m getting more confident in the Nevada race as time goes on. I have a hard time thinking that Reid can come back after claiming he lives on a “fixed government income (at the Ritz Carlton).”

With the recent polling data that’s just come in, we’re probably at 47 seats plus Nevada close to a lock with five more possible gets.

Realistically, you’re looking at either 50 or 51 seats.

However, to do that, we have to hold on in WV (which seems to be trending/narrowing Democrat), win the RINO vs. crook battle in IL (Kirk narrowly ahead) and win in Washington state (polls all over the place depending on the pollster).

CA and CT would be the next two possibles in that order. I think you have to write off DE and the NY special election at this point. (Sorry O’Donnell supporters, trailing by double digits in a state where Democrats roughly equal Republicans + Independents is a very tough battle to overcome.)

[MissesBush]

Sounds like a GOTV operation. They probably offer you a ride to the polls if you say you’re voting for Reid. If you say Angle they probably tell you to be sure to vote on November 3rd. LOL.

[MissesBush]

Good analysis. I still think West Virgina goes GOP based on Obama’s low approval numbers there. And California has tightened with the Reuters poll showing only a 1 point lead for the Loathsome Hag Boxer. I’m also giving Washington State to Rossi. I do think we get to 51 seats.

[greyfoxx39]

Don't discount the mormon vote for "Brother Reid". Nevada mormons voted in lockstep for Romney.

If the vote is close, it will be interesting to see the percentages. When you tabulate the 2008 primary votes among Mormons in 4 states (Utah, Nevada, Wyoming, and Arizona -- all states where Lds are at least 8% of the state population and much higher %-wise among Republicans...Romney got 94-95% of the Mormon vote!!!)

Reid's Mormon Support

"As the folks over at TPM point out, the GOP candidates have done an excellent job of knocking each other down. But there may be a bit of a hidden religious factor at work as well. At the Mormon History Association meetings in Kansas City last weekend, the word was that the leadership of the LDS Church was putting out quiet signals that it would be a good thing if Reid retained his seat. No Mormon has ever held a higher position of authority, and even if virtually all of the church's general authorities (as they're called) are Republicans, keeping a Mormon Democrat as Senate Majority Leader is preferable to having him replaced with a first-term Republican."

Is the LDS Church Supporting Harry Reid?

[Monkey Face]

With the early voting going on, I don’t think Harry has much of a chance. People are also watching his son, who is currently running for guv. The negative ads are going to affect the dad, for sure.

We need to make sure Harry is out of DC once and for all.