Posted on 10/15/2010 3:47:05 PM PDT by Delacon
A brand new post-debate Rasmussen poll has Christine O'Donnell trailing Democrat Chris Coons by only 11-points, 51%-40%, picking up eight from the pre-debate Monmouth University poll that had her trailing by 19 points, 57%-38%.
The Rasmussen poll is a startling development in a race that has taken an unusual twist in the last 48 hours. It puts Coons perilously close to sinking under the 50% margin. O'Donnell won 150,000 votes in a 2008 Senate bid against then-Senator Joe Biden when Biden was also running for vice president, which in today's climate could be enough to win.
Appearing on Sean Hannity's radio show yesterday, O'Donnell reacted to Hannity's questions about the position of the GOP establishment towards her candidacy. Without missing a beat O'Donnell slammed the National Republican Senatorial Committee for deliberately undermining her campaign during the primary -- and once victory was in hand balking on the needed resources on the grounds that everywhere else was more important.
This attack drew the usual Inside the Beltway gasps. What observers missed is that something else is happening as a result of the O'Donnell-NSRC problems.
Whatever O'Donnell thinks of the NRSC, this entire election has become one very big D-Day style invasion by average Americans of every last Establishment or Ruling Class redoubt in the country that's accessible by ballot box.
And O'Donnell's attack on the NRSC -- initially seen as standard-issue Insider politics that no one cares about beyond the Beltway -- has come to symbolize O'Donnell's, and voters', disdain for The Ruling Class. In essence, what is ordinarily a deeply obscure Insider's Washington institution -- the NRSC -- has become only the latest punching bag on the receiving end of candidates furious blows against this or that Establishment institution.
This approach is clearly reflected in O'Donnell's startling gain in the Rasmussen
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...
I hope you’re right! I’d love to see the Dems even more depressed than they’re already going to be on the morning of Nov. 3.
Well, maybe I was a little too sweeping in my statement. If she had taken out the “I’m not a witch” part and maybe started with “there’s a lot of talk about who Christine O’Donnell is...” I think it had been better. But maybe voters will find it endearing.
Hopefully the folks in DE get the urge to tell the media, obama, the know it all RINOs, and the weak willed to all stuff it.
The differences in the polls from different pollsters is possibly due to different “likely voter” screens.
Rasmussen has been consistent O’Donnell vs Coons going back to August. August 5 Rasmussen, Coons up 10.
I think Rasmussen is the most accurate and those other polls are outliers.
I’d prefer that the polls be closer, but the polls don’t particularly worry me.
In Maine, prior to the primary, less than a week before, LePage had 10% in the polls. He was in 4th. He won by 10% with 37%. I don’t think the pollsters have learned how to properly count for tea party candidates.
Why else did they go to Delaware today if Coons has it wrapped up?
Good question. But my thoughts are why not if they believe that Coons has it won big time. It’s a place Obama can show up and not hurt the democrat since DE is largely democratic in registration. We’ll see in less than three weeks how all this plays out. If I’m near a polling location I’m going to vote on Monday here in Texas as early voting starts then.
What worries me about the Real Clear Politics average is that
a screwball poll can tilt the average. I expect the Democrats to do Polls like that so that they can make the races appear closer so their voter don’t become discouraged and fail to turn out.
If there’s a need to throw a hail mary there are better options than simply attacking the NRSC.
You throw Hail Mary passes when you know you will not win otherwise.
I don’t think we’re anywhere near that point yet.
But I like Hail Mary passes. The tougher the better.
Some hail mary passes for Christine:
1) Legalize Marijuana. They say that it’s DuPont and their precious plastics that keep hemp from being used.
2) Coons is a merchant of death. So is WL Gore and, heck, why not, DuPont. PFOA. And since this is a national race, these commercials get national play. It might not make Christine win, but it sure will hurt Gore-tex sales and teflon sales, and scotchguard sales. It’s rare to find a politican who never worked for the chemical companies in Delaware. Kaufman did, Castle did, Coons did. And PFOA is really bad stuff. Man made chemical, stays in your body for years.
Devil horns on Coons. Coffins. Pictures of cancer. Just spend $2 Million ripping the heck out of em.
That’s what a Hail Mary pass looks like.
I’m not suggesting that she throw a hail mary at this time.
I think the boring, grind it out, thud thud thud of Taxes Obama Taxes Obama will carry the day, but if the decision is made to throw the hail mary, make it as tough as can be.
Lee Atwater style, not Karl Rove rope a dope style. Rip Coons apart.
Not suggesting the hail mary though.
The notable thing isn’t the “average” - it’s that you can look at all the polls on one page.
Check it out... and Rush is right 99.6% of the time. She gained bigtime.
LLS
“Hmmm...wish I could find a link to Scott Brown’s poll number prior to the election...I have hope for her and for Delaware. She tried the “cute, innocent” thing and it didn’t work.”
Here is the RCP average:
As of 15 days before the election, Scott Brown trailed Coakely by 9, 50-41 in the Rasmussen poll. Christine O’Donnell finds herself in nearly the precise same spot, with 18 days before the election she finds herself trailing Coons by 11, 51-40.
The only differences are:
A)Delaware is significantly more conservative than Massachusetts (only 21% self identified liberals as opposed to 28% in Massachusetts)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/141677/wyoming-mississippi-utah-rank-conservative-states.aspx#2
B)Christine O’Donnells has a boatload of money to spend on last minute ads; and
C) Christine O’Donnell is a far, far better candidate than Rocky Ra”Coons”. Brown was a better candidate than Coakley but not as much. COD managed to defeat Coons in the debate with Wolfie Blitzer and the Delaware NPR commissar trying to bail him out and to attack her.
No one has ever explained to me how Castle could have been consider such a "sure winner" when he couldn't even win the primary.
Yeah, except Scott Brown is more comparable to Castle, ideologically speaking. Scott Brown also had a career/record in office. Apples and oranges.
I think it’s very smart for O’Donnell to disassociate herself from the GOP since they won’t help her anyway. In a state as blue as DE, dissing the GOP won’t hurt her and it could well help with independents and vascillating/undecided/conservative rats who don’t like the GOP but want a more sane congress.
That said, I wish O’Donnell would get a speech coach and a new hair style so she didn’t sound and look like a college student. It would help.
>>I didn’t say she’s going to lose or is “doomed,” but the reality is it’s going to be a tough uphill climb<<
I watched the guy who is doing her ads do an interview tonight. He’s got a great strategy and knows what he’s doing. He’s done with the witch ads and while he didn’t say (obviously) I think he has her add campaign well in hand. She will gain another 5-6 in the next week or less.
Well no. Brown ran as an anti establishment candidate just like O’Donnell and nothing like Castle. As for career record, Coons has a record of raising taxes like nobody’s business. So consider the record issue a wash.
Coons came off as super-creepy at the debate.
The more people see him directly, the better O’Donnell will poll.
Does anybody know if there is going to be another debate?
LOL!! That’s a great idea. It will be great comedy. Matthews’ tingle up his leg will become a trickle down his leg. :)
“Yeah, except Scott Brown is more comparable to Castle, ideologically speaking”
Brown is not more comparable to Castle and he certainly did not appear so before the election. He ran as a rockribbed conservative. Brown was touted as a conservative on everything but abortion and he had a mixed record on that. Brown was against cap and tax and was no where near as liberal as Castle. He certainly wasn’t perceived as anything other than a conservative before BEFORE the election.
Brown is moderately prochoice. And being proabortion is a double edged sword, even in a blue state. (Brown was against federal funding and was for parental notification; Castle was on the opposite side of Brown on both issues. Castle is a down the line proabort) Some prolifers will refuse to vote for you. But anyone for whom abortion is an important issue votes for the Democrat rather than the GOP proabort. Polls bear this out.
“Scott Brown also had a career/record in office.”
And having a career in office helps? This year? Tell that to Murkowski and Castle. They had careers. A lot of people who currently have careers “in office” are going to be retired on November 2. That is the whole theme of this election. You do know that, don’t you?
Apples and oranges, eh? Maybe you’re right. She will probably win by more than Brown did
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