Posted on 10/15/2010 3:47:05 PM PDT by Delacon
A brand new post-debate Rasmussen poll has Christine O'Donnell trailing Democrat Chris Coons by only 11-points, 51%-40%, picking up eight from the pre-debate Monmouth University poll that had her trailing by 19 points, 57%-38%.
The Rasmussen poll is a startling development in a race that has taken an unusual twist in the last 48 hours. It puts Coons perilously close to sinking under the 50% margin. O'Donnell won 150,000 votes in a 2008 Senate bid against then-Senator Joe Biden when Biden was also running for vice president, which in today's climate could be enough to win.
Appearing on Sean Hannity's radio show yesterday, O'Donnell reacted to Hannity's questions about the position of the GOP establishment towards her candidacy. Without missing a beat O'Donnell slammed the National Republican Senatorial Committee for deliberately undermining her campaign during the primary -- and once victory was in hand balking on the needed resources on the grounds that everywhere else was more important.
This attack drew the usual Inside the Beltway gasps. What observers missed is that something else is happening as a result of the O'Donnell-NSRC problems.
Whatever O'Donnell thinks of the NRSC, this entire election has become one very big D-Day style invasion by average Americans of every last Establishment or Ruling Class redoubt in the country that's accessible by ballot box.
And O'Donnell's attack on the NRSC -- initially seen as standard-issue Insider politics that no one cares about beyond the Beltway -- has come to symbolize O'Donnell's, and voters', disdain for The Ruling Class. In essence, what is ordinarily a deeply obscure Insider's Washington institution -- the NRSC -- has become only the latest punching bag on the receiving end of candidates furious blows against this or that Establishment institution.
This approach is clearly reflected in O'Donnell's startling gain in the Rasmussen
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...
I’d love nothing more for O’Donnell to beat that putz Coons, but the 11 she gained recently was the low hanging fruit, probably Castle Republicans finally coming home to the GOP candidate. The last 11 point she needs to tie and then another 1 or 2 to win after that will be much, much tougher. Most of those are likely Dems and liberal-leaning independents. I’m not sure 2 1/2 weeks will be enough time for her to get them. Maybe if she can get a bunch of ads up, ditching the silly “I’m not a witch one,” she could cut down Coons’s lead a little further.
Coons was extremely unlikeable. So was Blumenthal. The more Dems talk, the less people like them.
Of course, some individual races will vary but overall I see no reason to believe that it won't be an even better night than we're anticipating. If we come anywhere close to a 2-1 turnout advantage even a candidate trailing by 20 points will win easily.
Please disregard my last post. I misunderstood you post. I am guessing the reason the article used the Monmouth poll was that it was done right before the debate as opposed to the previous Rassmussen poll is that the most recent one was done Sept. 16th nearly a month ago right. It could be that Christine suffered from direct attacks by Coons in the intervening month and is now making a comeback.
Most Delaware voters aren’t smart, though...
| Poll | Date | Sample | Coons (D) | O'Donnell (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 10/8 - 10/14 | -- | 54.6 | 37.0 | Coons +17.6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/14 - 10/14 | 500 LV | 51 | 40 | Coons +11 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/11 - 10/12 | 2355 LV | 54 | 33 | Coons +21 |
| CNN/Time | 10/8 - 10/12 | 834 LV | 57 | 38 | Coons +19 |
| Monmouth University | 10/8 - 10/11 | 790 LV | 57 | 38 | Coons +19 |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | 10/10 - 10/10 | 928 LV | 54 | 36 | Coons +18 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 10/9 - 10/9 | 1000 LV | 54 | 38 | Coons +16 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | 9/27 - 10/3 | 801 LV | 53 | 36 | Coons +17 |
| CNN/Time | 9/17 - 9/21 | 703 LV | 55 | 39 | Coons +16 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 9/18 - 9/18 | 1000 LV | 54 | 39 | Coons +15 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/15 - 9/15 | 500 LV | 53 | 42 | Coons +11 |
| PPP (D) | 9/11 - 9/12 | 958 LV | 50 | 34 | Coons +16 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/2 - 9/2 | 500 LV | 47 | 36 | Coons +11 |
| Daily Kos/PPP (D) | 8/7 - 8/8 | 620 RV | 44 | 37 | Coons +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/5 - 8/5 | 500 LV | 46 | 36 | Coons +10 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/14 - 7/14 | 500 LV | 39 | 41 | O'Donnell +2 |
Here’s what I use to track poll numbers.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/de/delaware_senate_oadonnell_vs_coons-1670.html
I agree with you. I think it will take a massive UNFORCED ERROR by Coons for COD to win. He definitely helped COD by his smug and arrogant demeanor during the debate but he needs to compound that performance with something egregiousover the next two weeks. I just don’t see Coons doing that especially after his advisors are probably telling him from now to election day to keep his mouth shut and not say anything remotely controversial.
But of course hubris enters the picture and Coons may go off the reservation. Who knows?
Disregard. Didn’t see post with poll listings.
At this rate we’ll have a veto-proof majority in both Houses.
We can only hope—or maybe a nice October surprise from his past will sink the “bearded Marxist.” But unfortunately Obama being there to campaign for the fool will firm up a lot of Coons’s vote making another 11 points that much tougher. On the other hand, we know Obama has the reverse Midas touch when it comes to campaigning for Democrats, so maybe his showing up with help O’Donnell. We’ll see.
I’d love nothing more for O’Donnell to beat that putz Coons, but the 11 she gained recently was the low hanging fruit, probably Castle Republicans finally coming home to the GOP candidate.
___________________________________________________________
With all due respect, you are are absolutely pathetic! She was at -19, now after her debate she’s at -11, and you still find something to be pessimistic about!
We are three weeks out, and you and the other wet blankets “just know she’s doomed.” Sorry, but I have no respect for folks like you that pooh pooh anything positive to do with COD.
She is still in a good position to win!
Democrats must laugh their A$$es off and wimps like you...determined to see the rain through the sunshine.
With an 11 point difference, she could be 4 points behind, or 18 points.
That's a pretty huge range and suggests this particular poll wasn't all that tightly constructed.
One more time, somebody has to be interested in doing a good poll. I am sure Christine's campaign is paying for the best. I'm also sure Chris' campaign isn't. She has the money. He doesn't have the money.
When you have the money to pay for high quality polling you can adjust the subtle nuances (or meat axes) in your campaign materials to take advantage of changes in public perception.
I'd bet Chris' numbers dropped with his visit from Obama and Biden. They make him look strange.
“I know, someone’s going to come back and ask if I just want to put my head in the sand and ignore the facts, my answer is yes. I don’t want to hear negatives on this race, we’ve heard enough. Save the bad news for the Democrats and let’s get behind our candidates.”
BRAVO! I feel the same way. Some Rove-types just want a check-mark next to the “R” and are having a hissy-fit that their “sure-to-win” RINO isn’t going to get in there.
amen, bro....I’m sick of hearing it too.
florida sunshine, r9tb, et al can go pound sand.
I just wonder if the topic of this thread about COD going on Hannity and attacking the ruling class was suggested by Sarah Palin. It seems too coincidental that Palin sent her people over to help COD prepare for the debate and now COD is attacking the ruling class and the elites when she did little of that before.
Palin is absolutely a brilliant political strategist. I call her a genius. You never know how this might tweak the indies and Reagan Democrats to come out and vote for COD and of course maximize the conservative turnout as well.
It is still not too late for some of the establishment kooks to jump in, and back Christine before they become total scum.
GO CHRISTINE!!! SHOW THEM YOU DON”T NEED THEM!!!
Agreed, this guy is not going to inspire anyone to get out and vote. This is a mid-term election and if Chris Coons is headlining your ticket you’ve got problems. The point is, COD has been hit with every silly allegation imaginable over the past month and she’s still within striking distance. The voters are getting tired of the she’s a witch drumbeat or any of the other cr@p they’ve thrown out there. They’ve shot their wad and she’s still standing.
Right now she simply needs to connect with the DE voters and tie Coons and his big government views to zer0. Coons is on the wrong side of every issue and this isn’t 2008.
The more people hear her the more comfortable they’ll become.
In Ras last poll, he included the possibility that Castle could do a write-in, and Castle got 5%, Coons 49 and O'Donnell 40.
This time round, no Castle, Coons 51, O'Donnell 40, some other candidate 5 and undecided 4%. The MoE is 4.5% - so on the high side of the MoE here - O'Donnell could be as close as 2 points down - but let's just say she might be within 5 or 6 points.
This is still a stunning development given Coons was supposed to pummel her and given the national media's obsession with this race. Over/under that the national media will become more obsessive with taking her down and as they do, her support will grow.
This is a remarkably similar pattern to what happened in the primary, actually.
Go Christine.
http://www.christine2010.com
http://www.christine2010.com/1mill1trill/
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