Posted on 10/13/2010 1:43:04 PM PDT by WebFocus
Worth flagging if only because this is the last comparison point we’ll have before tonight’s debate blockbuster. I’m searching for the silver lining in the crosstabs, but … help me out. The pollster’s reputable, the sample is enormous and limited to likely voters, and it’s right in the same range of all the other numbers we’ve been seeing lately — except a bit worse. (This is the first poll, I think, to put the margin at +20.) It was also taken over the last few days, which means the effect of her “I’m not a witch” ad is probably priced in. And it’s consistent with another trend we’ve seen in the Delaware polling, namely, that it’s women voters, not men, who are responsible for the bulk of Coons’s lead. Among men, O’Donnell trails here 49/41; among women, it’s 58/25. There’s a number worth crunching for Nate Silver or Mark Blumenthal or some other statistician with time on his hands today. Is there any wider gender gap in any race this year than the Delaware Senate battle?
The silver linings, I guess, are (a) she’s still sitting on a pile of money with which to fund ads, and of course (b) turnout. Two years ago, Biden crushed O’Donnell thanks to a partisan breakdown of 48D/31R/21I. Hopenchange fee-vah was high, so Democrats were motivated. Survey USA’s sample predicts turnout this year at 44D/30R/22I, which surely ain’t happening. There’s bound to be more Republicans in the pool this time with tea partiers enthusiastic and no Obama at the top of the ticket. The thing is, there’d have to be many, many, many more to dent a 15-20 point lead, especially since O’Donnell wins the GOP vote only by a relatively narrow 64/19 margin (Coons, by comparison, takes Democrats 81/10). So there’s your “what to expect” checklist for tonight’s debate — lots of talking points aimed at winning women and the centrist Republicans in Castle’s base. Castle himself could help in that regard, of course, but … he’s not going to. Quote:
Nine-term Delaware Rep. Mike Castle, who lost his state’s Senate GOP primary, said Wednesday that he won’t endorse a candidate in the general election…
“No, I’m not going to endorse anybody in that particular race, not because of the competence of any of the candidates, but because the primary I went through was very nasty in a variety of ways, both politically and personally, and I’ve just declined to get involved in that,” Castle told CNN’s John King in an interview to air Wednesday evening.
Translation: “I’m a sore loser.” At the very least, we’ve gotten some tasty Taiwanese animation out of this race. It’s mostly a goof on O’Donnell, but enjoy the salute to Harry Reid’s “pet” near the end. Open thread fo
How far behind was she in the primary??
O’Donnell got 35.3% of the vote against Biden in 2008 when Obama took the state with 67.8%. Win or lose, she is a winner because she took out a RINO in the primary.
Going further down that road, the Dems will try and spin Coons trouncing O’Donnell as a major repudiation of TEA party supported candidates.
Won’t work, but that’s what the Dems are hoping for.
And no, I don’t want Castle anywhere near the Senate as a Republican. Castle supports Cap and Trade. Enough said.
Welcome to freerepublic, and no, the thank you note goes to Karl Rove for jumping on her 53% to 47% victory night, and dumping ice water on her momentum, and continuing it for days, the NRSC, and then Mike Castle for announcing early, and then again TODAY, again with perfect timing to deflate O'Donnell, that he would not endorse the Republican candidate because he was treated too meanly in the primary, clearly signaling to his support to not support her.
Conservatives won the GOP primary in a one on one contest, and the Republican establishment went to war against the Republican winner.
Not sure if this anecdote applies, but I was picking out apples at Maryland grocery store and overheard a middle aged woman emphatically stating to another; “I am a Democrat, but I will be voting a straight Republican ticket this time!!!!”
Wonder if this voter’s intent is appearing in poll data?
I believe they are, and I'm hoping that indifference will keep many of them at home.
In the end, that was a victory by the Demon-rats LONG FORGOTTEN because they got their communist asses kicked six ways to Sunday in the rest of the nation.
I still hope COD wins--I sent her some money, and she is right on the issues.
Even if she loses, she is still right on the issues. And RINOs are still on the run.
All worth it.
Voters in Delaware are entitled to make their choice and live with it. O'Donnell is giving them a real opportunity to make our nation stronger.
Because if the numbers are true, the talking points will be "President Obama pulls one out for his party!".
Seems everywhere else he goes, his party drops in the polls.
Just think of it this way: Christine O’Donnell took out a nine time incumbent Congressman, the longest-serving U.S. Representative in the state’s history, a fomer Lt. Gov, and a two-time former governor in the primary.
Sorry! Time to move . But where ??? Pa. has the best firearms laws in the whole Northeast and no state tax on any type of retirement income.
Aren’t you the one who always says you would rather have a left-wing Democrat win the Senate seat than a RINO?
You got your wish . . please don’t complain.
That money is needed more in other races. It's over for her.
One loss in a very blue state like Delaware means very little.
I would much rather have 49 or 50 in the GOP than 52 with Castle.
With friends like those you really don't need enemies. Plus, the fear of God should be in L. Graham and other RINOS.
Does anyone know if the debate is going to be streamed on-line somewhere?
No it isn’t all about that but it is about that along with other things.
Hey I blame Karl Rove above all others for torpedoing her at the start, what he did really was evil. He destroyed a republican candidate just because she was a conservative. So I feel the pain.
No it isn’t all about that but it is about that along with other things.
Hey I blame Karl Rove above all others for torpedoing her at the start, what he did really was evil. He destroyed a republican candidate just because she was a conservative. So I feel the pain.
That wouldn't be me newby, so you were lying there, but it seems that you prefer rinos.
And to FReepers who are talking down Christine O'Donnell.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.