Posted on 10/13/2010 1:43:04 PM PDT by WebFocus
Worth flagging if only because this is the last comparison point we’ll have before tonight’s debate blockbuster. I’m searching for the silver lining in the crosstabs, but … help me out. The pollster’s reputable, the sample is enormous and limited to likely voters, and it’s right in the same range of all the other numbers we’ve been seeing lately — except a bit worse. (This is the first poll, I think, to put the margin at +20.) It was also taken over the last few days, which means the effect of her “I’m not a witch” ad is probably priced in. And it’s consistent with another trend we’ve seen in the Delaware polling, namely, that it’s women voters, not men, who are responsible for the bulk of Coons’s lead. Among men, O’Donnell trails here 49/41; among women, it’s 58/25. There’s a number worth crunching for Nate Silver or Mark Blumenthal or some other statistician with time on his hands today. Is there any wider gender gap in any race this year than the Delaware Senate battle?
The silver linings, I guess, are (a) she’s still sitting on a pile of money with which to fund ads, and of course (b) turnout. Two years ago, Biden crushed O’Donnell thanks to a partisan breakdown of 48D/31R/21I. Hopenchange fee-vah was high, so Democrats were motivated. Survey USA’s sample predicts turnout this year at 44D/30R/22I, which surely ain’t happening. There’s bound to be more Republicans in the pool this time with tea partiers enthusiastic and no Obama at the top of the ticket. The thing is, there’d have to be many, many, many more to dent a 15-20 point lead, especially since O’Donnell wins the GOP vote only by a relatively narrow 64/19 margin (Coons, by comparison, takes Democrats 81/10). So there’s your “what to expect” checklist for tonight’s debate — lots of talking points aimed at winning women and the centrist Republicans in Castle’s base. Castle himself could help in that regard, of course, but … he’s not going to. Quote:
Nine-term Delaware Rep. Mike Castle, who lost his state’s Senate GOP primary, said Wednesday that he won’t endorse a candidate in the general election…
“No, I’m not going to endorse anybody in that particular race, not because of the competence of any of the candidates, but because the primary I went through was very nasty in a variety of ways, both politically and personally, and I’ve just declined to get involved in that,” Castle told CNN’s John King in an interview to air Wednesday evening.
Translation: “I’m a sore loser.” At the very least, we’ve gotten some tasty Taiwanese animation out of this race. It’s mostly a goof on O’Donnell, but enjoy the salute to Harry Reid’s “pet” near the end. Open thread fo
Sorry, post got cut.
Final sentence says :
“Open thread for the debate coming at around 7 p.m”
If this is true, Delaware should be nuked !
Lot’s of undecideds in that mix. Turnout will be key. O’Donnell needs to get as much ad money on the board as possible and she needs to have a great debate tonight. A good cold rain on election day wouldn’t hurt either.
I fear the rats at the end of the day will return home to their lair. It will all depend on which side will turn out in greater numbers. Expect Obama to scare minorities and their base with losing their “benefits” if they don’t..
The idiots have bewitched her pretty hard and apparently even the idiot running against McMahon in CT is ahead in polls even though she smackdowns him in intelligence.
Sadly, all the media will talk about on November 3rd is how Coons saved the day for the democrats and how Obama scored a victory there because he went and campaigned for him.
O’Donnell can still win if the Dem turnout is low and it is a high turnout for Repubs. She still has to cut that Coons lead in these polls about by half on election day.
This election season is very fluid making it very possible for O’Donnell to come from behind.
Sure that makes sense. /s
You never know it’s a shame but you can’t win every election with a tea party candidate.
Coons will be a nightmare for 6 years so we can only hope for a last minute surge.
If these “polls” are indeed true then Ceaser Rodney wasted his time riding to Philly to vote on Independence. “First” state indeed! Deleware PROVE that you are worthy of “First State”!
I saw the name “Coons” and it took me by surprise. Interesting last name.
Chris Coons just sent Sarah Palin and Sean Hannity a thank you letter!
She may have won in a different state, like South Dakota, but, in Delaware, the gods are not smiling down on her.
Well, there is a decent chance that Senate turns out to be 50-50 with Coons (and Biden) giving the decisive vote for Senate Majority leader Schumer for the next 2 years. This is the lasting legacy of Tea Party Express DE operation.
What did people expect from this? She can hardly make it into thirties.
The only question is whether she’ll do better (percentage of the vote wise) than Alvin Greene.
He should have sent it to Karl Rove.
The “witch” ad was stupid, and reinforced doubts about her. The ONLY issue of her campaign should be the Obama economic disaster and Coons’ Communist support of it! Period. Make Coons and Obama the focus. You must spell it out in baby talk for most people. Voters are stupid. Bob
Hey, I live in Delaware, and I voted for O’Donnell, and I like Delaware.
Remind me... how many points was coakley ahead of Brown 3 weeks out??
LLS
However, Delaware voters do tend to vote Democrat (the 36 year senate career of the infamous Joe Biden is 'Exhibit A') but to elect a hard-core leftist in this political climate is simply irresponsible. It's a given that Christine O'Donnell has to deliver a knockout performance in her debate tonight and I hope the polls are proven wrong and that Republican/Independent turnout is huge on November 2nd. This Coons character is bad news and deserves to lose this contest.
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