Key House Races 2 October Update - Huge GOP Ratings Gains

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 2 October 2010 | Interceptpoint

[Salvation]

Maybe time to start really digging out the facts for all to see. LOL! On Shcrader of course!

[nuvista]

I saw Dick Morris speak at West Orlando Tea Party yesterday here in Orlando. Lunchtime session, packed! - had to be at least 500-600 people in attendance. Amazing enthusiasm. He was extremely motivating and convincing - making the case for 80+ seats in the House and 11+ in the Senate. Daniel Webster - Taliban Dan in Grayson-speak - was there. No doubt he will smoke the insane one! Sandy Adams similarly will crush Suzanne Kosmos (big O threw her under his crowded bus by abandoning manned space program - NASA contractors laid off 1,000 workers yesterday also). And, Mike Yost - little known - is running against the spiteful Corinne Brown; per Morris, he is now within striking distance (and this seat was never on the radar screen).

What amazed me - and it goes along with what we’ve all seen and read - is the incredible energy and enthusiasm on our side. This was, by the way, the first ever political event that I’ve attended in my entire 54 years. I took my wife and 2 sons. We are all energized to not only vote but work as much as we can on area campaigns and, as Morris has emphasized, “adopting” campaigns outside of our region (via phonebanking, etc).

I was skeptical, but now I’m strongly leaning toward an historic flushing of the Democratic detritus come 11/2!!!

[nuvista]

I saw Dick Morris speak at West Orlando Tea Party yesterday here in Orlando. Lunchtime session, packed! - had to be at least 500-600 people in attendance. Amazing enthusiasm. He was extremely motivating and convincing - making the case for 80+ seats in the House and 11+ in the Senate. Daniel Webster - Taliban Dan in Grayson-speak - was there. No doubt he will smoke the insane one! Sandy Adams similarly will crush Suzanne Kosmos (big O threw her under his crowded bus by abandoning manned space program - NASA contractors laid off 1,000 workers yesterday also). And, Mike Yost - little known - is running against the spiteful Corinne Brown; per Morris, he is now within striking distance (and this seat was never on the radar screen).

What amazed me - and it goes along with what we’ve all seen and read - is the incredible energy and enthusiasm on our side. This was, by the way, the first ever political event that I’ve attended in my entire 54 years. I took my wife and 2 sons. We are all energized to not only vote but work as much as we can on area campaigns and, as Morris has emphasized, “adopting” campaigns outside of our region (via phonebanking, etc).

I was skeptical, but now I’m strongly leaning toward an historic flushing of the Democratic detritus come 11/2!!!

[B Knotts]

They don’t mention OR-1. I think that is Leans D at most. I’m in OR-3, so there is no hope for me to be represented by a non-kook.

[GailA]

Our GOP Tea Party backed candidate Charlotte Bergmann is a black female, her 2 term obamabot opponent (white, male, secular Jew) won’t even debate her. I keep handing out the Medicare gut urls and have added the 1099 url’s list to every one I can..and tell them go read. No one likes the new taxes, they don’t like illegals taking their jobs, and they sure don’t want MORE taxes.

[MEG33]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/02/AR2010100203452_2.html?sid=ST2010100203463

“Democrat Chet Edwards fights to hold on to his job in one of the most Republican congressional districts in the country”

[McLynnan]

Edwards noted that this year is not the first time Republicans have written his political epitaph. "These races are going to be won or lost on a district-by-district basis," he said. "What I have to do is show that I'm one of us."

Interesting, who is the "us" he speaks of? Did you see the editorial page in today's Trib? Opposing columns by Edwards and Flores. Edwards is still behaving like an attack dog. Not one positive idea or vision for the district.

[RockinRight]

Hoping to see OH-13 and VA-11 go GOP. Also AZ-1.

[MEG33]

I will check it out..Thanks!

[GOPJ]

73 seems high, but there’s times Morris gets things others miss... we’ll see.

[SharpRightTurn]

Thanks for the ping, InterceptPoint.

You’re doing yeoman’s work keeping up with these House races. Keep up the good work.

[Clinging Bitterly]

OR-5 is a Republican district and it was ripe to go back to R in ‘08. The Republican candidate lost on his negatives and there is no reason for the Democrats to own it.

[GailA]

Couldn’t find a link at the Commie Appeal for the article but it is very telling. This is an AP story by Liz Sidoti

Democrats buy no ads for Lincoln

Party also seems to have written off Gordon’s seat, not sure about Tanner’s.

Dems have all but written off at least 2 Senate seats, ND, IN and AR and at least 6 House seates in TN, Louisiana, NY and elsewhere as they embark on a final-weeks, ad push to minimize congressional losses.

In 1 sign of dem discouragement, the party hasn’t reserved any airtime to protect Sen. Blance Lincoln, AR. who trails GOP Rep. John Boozman.

Dems are trying to determine whether to move forward with ad plas to win dem held TN 8th district (open), Tn 6th District is open, trending more republican in recent years, dems have no plans to funnel money into the race.

Dems have set aside air time for open seat 2nd district AR (open seat) dem candidate Sen. Joyce Eliot trails Republican Tim Griffin.

Dozens more are extremely competitive, including Travis Childers, MS 1st, and John Spratt SC 5th.

Republicans defending 6 competitive seats expect to lose 2 at least: open, at-large Delaware seat and Rep Joe Cao’s 2nd Louisiana

[Balding_Eagle]

gaining control of 52-53 seats is also very high.

If this is true, we should sacrifice McCain by making him lose.
Worth repeating

gaining control of 52-53 seats is also very high.

If this is true, we should sacrifice McCain by making him lose.
Worth repeating

[Political Junkie Too]

This is what's so interesting about my model.

The experts are giving this race (OR-05) about a 60-40 probability to the Democrat, but the last poll (from September 9) shows the Democrat ahead 42% to 29%. My poll-based model will give this race 100% to the Democrat because the poll is way outside the margin of error.

Unless there is a new poll, the September 9 poll will stay active for the rest of the election, or until we decide that 60-day polls are too old this late in the election.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Investigating this further, as an experiment I decided to see what the last week would look like with a 60-day poll expiration, a 45-day expiration, and a 30-day expiration, just to see the sensitivity of the poll data to the expert data.

Week	GOP House Seats P10	GOP House Seats EV	GOP House Seats P90	Probability of 218	GOP Gain	Poll Coverage
60-day	217	220.83	225	83.86%	41	70%
45-day	215	219.3	224	69.04%	40	61%
30-day	214	218.65	224	62.01%	39	38%
15-day	214	219.64	225	69.43%	40	26%
None	210	216.42	222	41.06%	37	0%

Based on this, I think 60 days is still reasonable, and we'll just hope that older polls within the range get refreshed.

-PJ

[Truth is a Weapon]

Technically you are correct. However, you have to consider the political pressure put on the Senate by the election of a super conservative House. 33 Senators should be up for election in 2012. Are they going to vote to sustain a veto against something the public really wants? Do they want that to be the primary record remembered at the next election?

So there is reason to hope for over-riding unpopular vetoes by 0bama.

[InterceptPoint]

I’ll do my best but I am getting more picky given the recent flood of phony DCCC polls. So for now I’m not posting internal Dem or GOP polls.

[spintreebob]

I walked IL-14th this weekend. What is impressive is the massive ground game of the Dems compared to the spotty ground game from the Tea Party.

The Dundee Tea Party group in the NE corner of the 14th has a great ground game. The Kendal County Regulars who kicked out the Hastert machine have a great ground game. But it seems that many Tea Party and conservative types in other parts of the 14th are not oganized. A few of us individuals are taking a precinct here and there. But nothing like the other side.

I’d estmate that of an average 900 voters in a precinct 20 are disorganized Tea Party activist types. And 20 are UnitedChurchofChrist/UniteMethodist/ACORN/NEA/SEIU activists who are superbly organized. They can intimidate over 100 into putting up yard signs. The other side can knock on every door multiple times.

Plus the candidates are more dedicated. They’ve been knocking on every door for 2 years before we even had a candidate.

Never-the-less I expect that Hultgren(R) will beat Foster(D) as the voters see common sense (not ideology) is not spending and borrowing so much.

[uncommonsense]

"Effectively, the Obama Socialist Agenda will be shut down come Nov. 3rd as a result."

I'd love to think it would be "shut down", but that would require impeachment.

Barry has subverted the constitution to such a degree by using policy-making czars (how many now?), that congress is almost irrelevant. Plus, he's got his ACORN 2.0 up and running - teamed up with unions, illegals, and dead people - ready to throw elections. Add to that - international funding and media co-conspirators to crank out propaganda and cover his tracks.

No, I'm afraid the leftist revolution now has such a massive footprint with way more tools in place, that changing a few D's to R's will barely scratch the underbelly of the beast.

Obamunism has made significant inroads to subvert privacy and squelch freedom of speech on a grand scale (e.g. warrantless wiretaps and inspection of all internet communications through their mandated back door access to all internet traffic). It's obvious that he'll aggressively persecute anyone and any business or industry that dares to contradict his agenda.