Posted on 09/28/2010 8:55:19 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The odds-on favorite to win the GOP presidential nod in 2012 is none other than Sarah Palin, according to a statistical formula developed by Villanova University Prof. Lara Brown. The professor's figuring is bad news for presumed hopefuls like Rep. Mike Pence, Sen. Jim DeMint, ex-Gov. Mitt Romney, former Speaker Newt Gingrich, Gov. Haley Barbour, and former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton. Many simply joined the game too late, says Brown, author of the new book Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants, which studies every election since the founding. Others, like DeMint, are still brewing but won't be ready until 2016. As for Newt? "I don't think the GOP can forgive him," she says.
The book devises an "opportunism variable" based on the candidate's résumé to explain who wins the presidency and why. Palin has an advantage because she has been elected both mayor and governor. She also was a major party vice presidential nominee, giving her an enviable breadth of political experience. According to Brown, candidates who take risks and run for a variety of offices do well. It's even better if they lose a presidential race or two. "It takes about a run and a half to get there," Brown says. Pols "may think they can get it done in six months or a year, but [winning] will actually take them running, losing, and planting seeds," she says.
So when you agree with Ronald Reagan on taxation policy, are you comparing yourself to Reagan or agreeing with one of his policies?
Your non sequiturs don’t mean anything to me. Why do you believe that women should not have the right to vote?
You’re the fool that said I was comparing myself to the founders because I essentially agree with their thinking.
This doesn't answer my question. Why don't you believe that women have the right to vote?
I don’t believe that. They do, last time I checked.
That would be ideal..unfortunately, and as you say, Is there one available...and that according to "intellectual" requirments some look for? Nope not one...because how people see intelligence and the other tinsel around a candidate will vary.
Further, outside of Palin, I do not see a Candidate with the popularity to hold the lead over Obama or Hitlary, in view. The popular vote carries some weight if for no reason than exciting the public...who are easily excitable. Romney sure won't, he had his chance and people will simply see him as a re-tread and part of the good ol' boys club who changes with the wind..... and they sure don't want those connected with former runners or hard ties to Washington...People want their country back and they will gravitate to those who seem most agreeable and capable to associate with them, and do that job.
On the other hand there are those who do look for strong conservative qualities, who can do as you say...but the general public no longer votes according to what we see as significant. BO did not appoint himself to Office...idiots with no clue about politics or government operations voted for Him because he was "liked".......Bo was charming, a big talker, and told them what they wanted to hear...not who he was and is. So the majority voted for a looser.
The hardest thing I've had to settle within myself...is who can beat the opponets....who will gather a strong team around them with similar values of the people, perhaps even stronger and wiser than they are....In my book, and thus far, Palin is the only one who can fill that and get our good people in the positions we need them in.
Word games? Let me rephrase the question. Why don’t you believe that women should have the right to vote?
I’ll let Jefferson speak to it. He’s far wiser than I.
http://www.earlyamerica.com/review/fall97/jeffersn.html
This doesn’t answer my question. Why don’t you believe that women should have the right to vote?
Sure it does. Maybe Adams will answer better. He too was a wise man.
http://press-pubs.uchicago.edu/founders/documents/v1ch13s10.html
This doesn’t answer my question. Why don’t you believe that women should have the right to vote?
I share the founder’s views on women, generally speaking.
Folks ignorant of facts can't expect to be taken seriously. LOL.
And I’m not telling you they shared my views. They came way before I was born. I share theirs, generally. And I answered your question 3 times now.
More word games and you still didn’t answer my question. My prediction was correct.
You are the one playing word games. 1st telling me I’m comparing myself to the founders, then this crap: “I’m not asking if you believe the founders shared your views”.
Just setting the record straight. I’m not telling you I BELEIVE the founders shared MY views. I’m telling you I KNOW I share theirs. And gave you two concrete examples of those views.
Here’s a third, just in case the 3rd times a charm. If it isn’t, too bad. But this is from a frenchman, not a founder:
“You do not see American women directing concerns outside the range of the family, or handling business dealings, or entering politics.” … “Nor have Americans ever imagined that the result of democratic principle would be to overturn a husband’s authority or to introduce any ambiguity about who is in charge in the family.” … “if I am asked how we should account for the unusual prosperity and growing strength of this nation, I would reply that they must be attributed to the superiority of their women.”
-——Alexis De Tocqueville, Democracy in America
Well, I can agree to alot of what you said. But I would argue this. President Bush was a good man. And really, he was excellent on the stump (though debates, not so much - but neither were his stiff opponents). Had he championed Reaganism, not the hodgepodge of compassionate conservatism, he would have wiped Algore off the map. And if he had governed as a rock-ribbed conservative, the dems would have been as out of ammo in 2004 as they were in 1984, and Lurch would have been landslided out of town.
My point is that real, genuine, articulated conservatism sells. Yes, you need a good messenger, but even more importantly, you need a trusted messenger.
Palin may run, she may win the nomination too. I’ll support her if she does. But for craps sake, the primary is the time to duke it out. To demand precise answers, to probe, to put feet to the fire. And yet there are many here, well before primary season has even started for 2012, telling me and everyone else that if you don’t think that Palin is the best we got you must hate her, hate women, be a troll, want Obama to win, etc etc. I got sick of that some time ago, and that’s why I do what I do.
But he wasn't a speaker by any means...People didn't like his style and how he spoke...but I tell you...the enemies of our country understood him very well...they understood without reservations.
Bush could never replace Reagan...or come close..no-one can...he was one of a kind. But Bush, like his father had global leanings, hard to play a full conservative roll when at the same time support the global initiatives as strongly as he did, but he was pretty much low key about that for the most part.
I think that you are just not ready to commit and understandably so....others are also waiting. But until I see someone with as much a chance as Palin has I will be in her court....heck we're really all in her court for the way she is moving across the political plain...no one can move and shake things as she's doing. But will she run? I have reservations still...and she's not stated so except indirectly.
As for those solidly in Palins court...well, hopefully when you determine who you'll vote for you'll have some degree of passion too. Until then you have to admit Palin does dance in the democrats heads..and the medias...very well. You can get your feet wet without taking the dive ya know.
Yep, the primaries are for duking it out...and now I understand you better....you really need to post more like you have been here...maybe people are just misunderstanding you. BTW Jim Robinson posted to me when I was trying to figure Palin out...He said..”If not Palin, then who?”.... and that is the question....even today.
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