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Sarah Palin's 2012 Opportunity
US News and World Report's Washington Whispers ^ | September 28, 2010 | Paul Bedard and Caitlin Huey-Burns

Posted on 09/28/2010 8:55:19 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The odds-on favorite to win the GOP presidential nod in 2012 is none other than Sarah Palin, according to a statistical formula developed by Villanova University Prof. Lara Brown. The professor's figuring is bad news for presumed hopefuls like Rep. Mike Pence, Sen. Jim DeMint, ex-Gov. Mitt Romney, former Speaker Newt Gingrich, Gov. Haley Barbour, and former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton. Many simply joined the game too late, says Brown, author of the new book Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants, which studies every election since the founding. Others, like DeMint, are still brewing but won't be ready until 2016. As for Newt? "I don't think the GOP can forgive him," she says.

The book devises an "opportunism variable" based on the candidate's résumé to explain who wins the presidency and why. Palin has an advantage because she has been elected both mayor and governor. She also was a major party vice presidential nominee, giving her an enviable breadth of political experience. According to Brown, candidates who take risks and run for a variety of offices do well. It's even better if they lose a presidential race or two. "It takes about a run and a half to get there," Brown says. Pols "may think they can get it done in six months or a year, but [winning] will actually take them running, losing, and planting seeds," she says.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; congress; cultofpalin; demint; gingrich; iampalinhearmeroar; iquitarod; jonestownredux; mittromney; obama; odonnell; palin; palinbotsassemble; palinkoolaidfactory; palinlovefest; pdsfoundhere; rabstrollsagain; rino; romney; romney4romney; sarahmcpalin; sarahpalin; teaparty
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To: death2tyrants; stephenjohnbanker

No surprise that you would have an animated gif of Comrade Zero readily available to be uploaded.


341 posted on 09/30/2010 4:58:43 AM PDT by mkjessup (Sarah Palin = Building momentum for a landslide of 1964 proportions! (for the 'Rats that is))
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To: familyop

Next, we need teenagers to vote too! So say the socialists, anyhow.


342 posted on 09/30/2010 8:01:46 AM PDT by pissant (THE Conservative party: www.falconparty.com)
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To: caww

If you’re ever bored sometime, you can go back and look at the ‘arguments’ I get involved in regarding Palin. I’d reckon you’d find that 80% of the time, it begins with some cultist ankle biter taking shots against me (and usually me, as opposed to the argument).

I’m not complaining mind you. Never have. I welcome all opinions. The ankle biters, however, constantly complain. To me, to their posse, and usually to the mods as well. LOL.

So they like to start fights, but then go scurrying to the mods and whining when I fire back.

Just like the old Fredheads of yesteryear.


343 posted on 09/30/2010 8:10:19 AM PDT by pissant (THE Conservative party: www.falconparty.com)
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To: mkjessup

she’ll be gone by then. The Palin staffers will dissipate into the ether, just like Fred’s, Mitt’s and Rudy’s.


344 posted on 09/30/2010 8:12:08 AM PDT by pissant (THE Conservative party: www.falconparty.com)
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To: pissant
So why bother then? Most people recognize Palins past...repeating the same old stories accomplishes so little now as she has certainly moved ahead of it..and so have her critics...for the most part.

Look, when I came to FR I was undecided about Palin...especially as the economic situation came down. Over time she has certainly mastered my concerns about her, and further I recognize there is a certain degree of political posturing a candidate must do, which she has been doing..and not always favorable to those who support her.

Even so I still have reservations she will run...I'm not so sure she wants to pick up the Democratic mess she'll be facing and the economic woes yet ahead...even if she runs there won't be a quick fix for allot of what's happened. I want to see who she might be planning to run with her and who will be on her team if she gets there.

There are few others running who would have a chance to run against BO, if he even runs,...and if Hitlary runs then I think the whole equation will change.

345 posted on 09/30/2010 8:26:15 AM PDT by caww
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To: caww

The bottom line to all of this is that despite her ability to animate the crowds with all the rah-rah and the “you betchas”, Sarah Palin is woefully inexperienced to serve as President of the United States. This Nation is faced by enemies both inside and outside, we are still engaged in a war effort against terrorists, and we need someone with a bit more on their resume’ than ‘Mayor of Wasilla’ and ‘partial term as Governor’ of the least populated State.


346 posted on 09/30/2010 11:03:23 AM PDT by mkjessup (Sarah Palin = Building momentum for a landslide of 1964 proportions! (for the 'Rats that is))
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To: mkjessup

What’s the least populated state? (This is a test. Good luck!)


347 posted on 09/30/2010 1:06:11 PM PDT by Chunga (The Democratic Party Is A Criminal Enterprise)
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To: mkjessup

freerepublic is sure not a homosexual agenda, friendly, web site, it is definitely, and firmly committed against it.

Some freepers are pro homosexual agenda, and most, if not all of those, are anti-Palin.


348 posted on 09/30/2010 2:33:50 PM PDT by ansel12 ([fear of Islam.] Once you are paralyzed by fear of Mohammedanism...you have lost the battle.)
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To: familyop; death2tyrants; pissant
How Dramatically Did Women's Suffrage Change the Size and Scope of Government?

The female vote has been far more Republican than the Catholic vote.

Until 1964 the female vote was generally Republican, while the Catholic vote only went Republican once, (in 1956).

Since the 60s, the white female vote is more Republican than the white Catholic vote.

349 posted on 09/30/2010 2:44:02 PM PDT by ansel12 ([fear of Islam.] Once you are paralyzed by fear of Mohammedanism...you have lost the battle.)
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To: caww

Why do I bother? Because we are facing one of the most crucial elections for president in our modern history. Not only to undo the damage caused by Obama, Clinton and the dems, but also the damage caused by Republicans. We are at a precipice. One false step by Obama’s replacement could seal the end of our free republic. I do not think Palin is up to the challenge for myriad reasons. Is she a go-getter? Yes. Is she generally conservative? Yes. Is she the wisest, most studied, conservative to the bone, constitutionally minded intellectual we can muster? No.

That is what we’ll need. Ronald Reagan was very wise, and by my reckoning based on his own writings and well developed philosophy, THE conservative intellectual of his time. He was also 69 years old, and seasoned beyond compare when elected in 1980. Churchill was 65 when he assumed Prime Minister, with a immensely distinguished career prior to 1940.

We will need that type of wisdom, that type of candidate. Is there one avaialble; not really that I can see. But we better pick the closest thing imaginable to it, or the decline will not be reversed.


350 posted on 09/30/2010 3:32:55 PM PDT by pissant (THE Conservative party: www.falconparty.com)
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To: pissant

That was an impressive description, yet you claim to believe that Michelle Bachmann fits all that, does she?


351 posted on 09/30/2010 3:45:16 PM PDT by ansel12 ([fear of Islam.] Once you are paralyzed by fear of Mohammedanism...you have lost the battle.)
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To: ansel12

If you read carefully, you may note I don’t think anyone fits it. We just have to get as close as possible and pray for the best.


352 posted on 09/30/2010 3:51:31 PM PDT by pissant (THE Conservative party: www.falconparty.com)
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To: pissant

Really that post with your list was just another long version of “no Palin”, I really thought that you have been offering up Bachmann as a woman that you were supporting, you have called for her to run.


353 posted on 09/30/2010 3:59:41 PM PDT by ansel12 ([fear of Islam.] Once you are paralyzed by fear of Mohammedanism...you have lost the battle.)
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To: ansel12

I support a small handful of conservatives to run, and my pecking order changes from time to time, but I don’t see anyone as well qualified and wise as Reagan.


354 posted on 09/30/2010 4:15:01 PM PDT by pissant (THE Conservative party: www.falconparty.com)
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To: pissant

I have no idea what that has to do with anything, Reagan no longer exists, he will never be the candidate again.


355 posted on 09/30/2010 4:18:21 PM PDT by ansel12 ([fear of Islam.] Once you are paralyzed by fear of Mohammedanism...you have lost the battle.)
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To: ansel12

You missed the point of my post on Churchill and Reagan. It had nothing to do withe bringing them back from the dead. It had everything to do with setting the benchmark that we need to strive for, even with the knowledge that it will fall short.


356 posted on 09/30/2010 4:22:59 PM PDT by pissant (THE Conservative party: www.falconparty.com)
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To: pissant
"Next, we need teenagers to vote too! So say the socialists, anyhow."

Yes. I was a teen, when that policy began. IIRC, it was a very few years after the old flick, "Wild in the Streets" (about drugged-up lefties bringing us the teen vote and camps to enforce drug abuse in old folks).


357 posted on 09/30/2010 4:33:55 PM PDT by familyop (cbt. engr. (cbt), NG, '89-' 96, Duncan Hunter or no-vote.)
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To: familyop

I have that movie on DVD, great music and a funny comedy.


358 posted on 09/30/2010 4:46:59 PM PDT by ansel12 ([fear of Islam.] Once you are paralyzed by fear of Mohammedanism...you have lost the battle.)
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To: pissant

Yes, you were comparing yourself to them. Explain again why you don’t believe women should have the right to vote.


359 posted on 09/30/2010 5:34:20 PM PDT by death2tyrants
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To: familyop

You agree with pissant that women should not have the right to vote?


360 posted on 09/30/2010 5:35:13 PM PDT by death2tyrants
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