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Posted on 09/24/2010 7:25:31 PM PDT by neverdem
The campaign for governor of New York was shaken up this week by the release of polls that offered vastly different impressions of the race more than six weeks before Election Day.
On Wednesday, a poll by Quinnipiac University suggested a close race. Andrew M. Cuomo, the Democratic candidate, was supported by 49 percent of 751 likely voters, while the Republican, Carl P. Paladino, was backed by 43 percent.
The next day, Siena College released a poll of 801 registered voters showing Mr. Cuomo with a 33-point lead over Mr. Paladino, 57 percent to 24 percent. That poll, unlike the Quinnipiac one, included Rick A. Lazio, who lost the Republican nomination to Mr. Paladino but remains on the ballot as the Conservative Party candidate. Eight percent of the voters polled by Siena said they were planning to vote for Mr. Lazio.
On Friday, yet another poll was released, this one conducted by Marist College, which reported results for both registered voters and likely voters. It also suggested that Mr. Cuomo had considerably more support among voters than Mr. Paladino, although his margin shrank slightly when only those deemed likely to vote were included. Mr. Cuomo was supported by 52 percent of the 617 likely voters, Mr. Paladino was backed by 33 percent and Mr. Lazio got 9 percent.
All three polls were done by telephone and were conducted after the Sept. 14 primary elections. They have comparable sample sizes, and all have margins of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. When similarly conducted polls have such discrepancies in results, they can be attributable to factors like voter definition, the order in which questions were asked and how the questions were worded.
Quinnipiac and Marist have developed likely-voter models based on the respondents’ intention to vote and interest...
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
I prefer the system we have in Texas where a candidate can only run in one party primary, and a primary loser can't run as an independent in the general election.
The difference is that new york has dozens of third parties such as the conservative party, for one. Lazio is not running as an independent but as a “conservative.”
One poll is of likely voters and the other is of registered voters. And since ACORN and the like likes register everyone and eveything, breathing or not, I think the registered voter poll is somewhat unreliable.
Apparently you have to sign in to view NYT articles.
It would appear that the major difference between those 2 polls is that one is registered and one is likely.
I guess Democrats aren’t voting much this year. Makes sense.
But still the state of NY allowed him to run for the nomination of multiple parties.
Ithaca: Is ‘Comrade Tubman’ Mural Pushing a Socialist Agenda?
FReepmail me if you want on or off my New York ping list.
College polls? Sorry, I don’t have much confidence in polls conducted by brainwashing institutions of liberal indoctrination.
I would blame the conservative party, not NY directly. There is a movement for him to withdrawal anyway. We will see.
I’m having this sort of problem with the DCCC polls of the House races, mostly from Garin-Yart-Yang. The DCCC polls just look too good to be true for the Dems. Can we trust DCCC polls or should we just ignore them?
Thanks for the ping!
Wow. It’s good to know that the NY Times is just as utterly boring as ever. Phew. I tried reading on but the article was sapping my will to live.
I generally don't put much stock in the precise result of the poll -- it's relatively hard to poll a House race anyway -- and file the partisan poll into one of three categories:
* the DCCC poll shows their own candidate losing narrowly or tied: Republican is significantly ahead
* the DCCC poll shows a lead of 1-15 points: the race is competitive
* the DCCC poll shows a lead greater than 15-20 points: the Republican trails and either lags badly on name ID or isn't likely to prevail (It's easier to rig a big result against a little known opponent.)
Just a rule of thumb and doesn't always work.
I don’t care for colleges that are seeking to matter—see your liberal asses in November...
NY Election :aw does not prohibit this.
When Ed Koch ean for Mayor, I believe he ran on the Dem, GOP and Liberal Party line.
NY party politics is the most byzantine of all the states.
This race for Governor is turning out to be the most exciting race in America 2010
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