Posted on 09/24/2010 7:04:12 PM PDT by Bigtigermike
One of my Delaware guys — very plugged into state Republican circles, closer to the Mike Castle fans than the Christine O’Donnell fans — sends me a bombshell:
I am hearing from a credible source that Castle’s odds of mounting a write-in campaign are as high as 50-50. They believe they can win, and lots of anecdotal evidence that I can share tells me this: most independents and even many Democrats are very unhappy with the choice between O’Donnell and Coons. People are telling me:
O’Donnell is awful on personal character but right on the public policy issues.
Coons has outstanding character who will be a rubber stamp for Obama-Biden.
I would surmise that key operatives in Republican circles would give Castle a wink and a nod: either Castle wins or O’Donnell wins in a three-way; O’Donnell cannot win in a two-way – so a write-in is worth a roll of the dice. Castle’s team plans to run him as a moderate and then promise to caucus with the GOP to reassure some of the Republican base.
I’m sure a lot of Christine O’Donnell fans will not be happy with this news, but this may very well work out quite well for her options, particularly if Castle sends as much time criticizing Coons as he does O’Donnell. Her victory threshold may be dropping from 50 percent plus one to as low as 33 percent plus one. (Yes, there are candidates from the parties of Libertarians, Independence and… er… “Blue Enigma.”)
UPDATE: Another Republican offers this anecdote: “I was driving through there a few days ago, I saw TONS of Castle signs still blanketing areas by the side of the road. That suggests to me that enthusiasm for a Castle bid in a three-way race would be high.”
Perhaps. Or, you know, maybe somebody forgot to collect them.
ANOTHER UPDATE: O’Donnell fans are one or two polls away from knowing whether this is a good idea. For now, there’s directly contradictory speculation from Campaign Spot readers on whether a Castle write-in bid hurts Coons or O’Donnell more.
Take one:
I’m not sure this works out as well for O’Donnell as people may think. Why did she win the primary? Because she was the conservative, or because people really liked Christine O’Donnell? The masturbation and witchcraft comments shouldn’t matter, but they will, and Mike Castle appears to be a popular politician among independents in Delaware. If Castle reassures Republicans that he’ll caucus as one, then I think this begins to look like Connecticut 2006 in reverse: O’Donnell pulls a slim majority of Republicans but Castle pulls the rest, along with independents and some moderate Democrats. In which case, I would think O’Donnell’s looking at 15-25%, not 35-40%.
Take two:
This is one of O’Donnell’s “fans” that supports a Castle write in. He will not take any of her supporters. He will take Coons supporters. In my opinion the best way for her to win is for a Castle write in. The News Journal had an online poll and I imagine people like myself voted for Castle to run. THis will make the election a lot more fun.
So if Castle wins, who does he caucus with? The Rats?
O’Donnell has beaten one Democrat, I think she has a pretty good chance of beating two of them.
Maybe Rove can swing by Delaware to campaign for him...
What the hell does that mean? This bearded Marxist who was brainwashed by his left wing professors and who backs the evil schemes of Obama to the hilt has "outstanding character"? Outstanding, how? You can't be outstanding in any meaningful way if you spend your entire life guzzling pork and helping evil people destroy our country.
I don’t believe this - yet.
If Castle is so popular in DE, why did he lose so convincingly? I am not buying what this article is selling at all, Odonnell can win in a two way, but if Castle can help by doing a write in, then good. In any case he will show what a sore loser he is and also further prove that all that rino whining about how conservatives should support the pubbie candidate no matter what, is, and always was, complete garbage.
BTW, Odonnells honest character is far better than the sellout Castle.
When in doubt and in the face of the spirit of confusion, vote for what you believe is right, not what you think will win.
The current administration is a bobsled run to hell.
The only reason Castle would run is to torpedo O’donnell. He can’t win in that 3-way race, and he will draw votes from Christine more than Coons (I suspect both the RINO RNC and the Dem’s are trying to push him to run).
Can someone tell my when was the last time a high profile race like this one or any State wide race had the winner being the write in candidate?
Cause I sure can't recall it ever happening.
I’m not afraid of Castle entering the field. If it’s a legit three-way race, O’Donnell may need as little as 35% to carry the state.
50/50 = Will run if his polling shows he takes votes away from O’Donnell, and won’t run if his polling shows he takes votes away from Coon.
This is why I’ve never contributed to the RNC.
I would not be surprised to learn that democrats are pushing/supporting/funding loser Rinos in effort to divide the party and rob votes from winning Conservatives.
There’s no limit as to how low democraps & rinos will stoop.
I should add another comment. The National Review has become the primary support for RINOs in this country. They worked hard for Mitt Romney, and now they’re working hard against Sarah Palin and the Tea Party.
“I am hearing from a credible source.” What exactly does that mean? Obviously some RINO handler who is close to Mike Castle. And he knows that the National Review would love to jump in and help undermine O’Donnell.
Because if O’Donnell wins, then some of the top people in the Delaware Republican Party are going to be broomed out. So they’d much rather see Coons win. They can deal with a Bearded Marxist. But they can’t deal with angry voters who want to throw them all out of power. It’s not just Mike Castle. It’s the whole gang running the party in Delaware and DC.
Mike Castle = Flexible container of vinegar and water
Castle is a dead issue
Nonsense. The LEAD article in NR is “Help Joe Miller”
and they are SCATHING in their commentary on Murkowski.
The SECOND one is a slam of Crist. What are you smoking?
I hope Castle runs. A 3 way race is O’Donnell’s best chance. Coons is a joke candidate who will fade into third place just like Meeks in Florida.
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