WHOA!!!
Dang. ... Now why would the Chamber of Commerce endorse Manchin ?
a link to generic twitter.com not to poll results...
UH-OH! Time to trot out the ghost of Sheets Byrd. “It’s what Daddy would have wanted!”
This is quite a turnaround, is it not?
Wow! Manchin had been up by 22 points back in July.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate/west-virginia
I wish I could believe PPP. These guys are socialists of the highest order, and support the Obama agenda at every opportunity. They are probably hoping we sink a lot of money in this race.
We should trust Rassmussen’s numbers in WV.
Outstanding news!
I do expect a greater Republican turnout than what’s being forecast by the polling corps. but, in WV? I don’t know. I think that we’ll win CA, WI, WA, and NV, but west virginia?
that had to be a real BVD-soiling moment for the Democrat party brass
Truly startling if it's true. More evidence that it's going to be a blood bath for the Rats in the Rust Belt. Manchin is a popular, popular governor.
OH MY GOD!!!! I hate to say “see I told you so” but as I have said here on FR, Raese has a shot at beating Manchin, despite the Democrat Governor’s overall popularity, which is somwhere close to 70%. In this political climate, no “lead” by the Dems is safe. I’m not guaranteeing a Raese victory but I had a feeling he would do very well, win or lose. Months ago, the Manchin people were quietly thinking they would walk to a 20-30 point win as Byrd had done countless times. With Obama’s 29% approval rating in West Virginia and with Manchin being too closely tied to the present administration and its policies I knew the GOP might have a shot at an upset here. It’s not over but it’s looking better and better for Raese and his campaign.
Quoting the PPP report (sorry for the spacing, was cut from PDF.)
Raleigh, N.C. – If the election were held today, Robert Byrd’s U.S. Senate seat from
West Virginia would be held by a Republican and someone other than Byrd for the first
time in 52 years. Though Governor Joe Manchin is still very popular, with a stellar 59-32
approval rating, second among those PPP has measured this year to Louisiana’s Bobby
Jindal, he is trailing Republican opponent John Raese, 43-46, among likely voters.
West Virginia is still a Democratic state by registration, Democrats representing 51% of
the projected electorate to Republicans’ 37%, but they are conservative Democrats who
increasingly vote Republican in federal elections. Like Kentucky and a lot of Appalachia
and the South with histories of Democratic governors, Mountain State voters still often
separate their votes for state officials from those for federal politicians. This traditional
vote division is exacerbated by a 10-point pro-Republican enthusiasm gap. John McCain
won the state by 13 points in 2008, but West Virginians who plan to vote this year report
casting ballots for McCain by 23 points over President Obama—a 10-point enthusiasm
gap compared to the electorate two years ago. If the same internals were still true and
this race had been run in 2008, Manchin would be ahead roughly 50-44.
Because of the conservatism of the Democrats—34% of whom think the party is too
liberal—Raese gets 23% of them, to Manchin’s 14% of the GOP, and Raese wins
independents by a 56-30 margin.
If Manchin’s popularity as chief executive cannot help him get elected to higher office,
there is no doubt the potential that Manchin will vote for Obama’s agenda is weighing on
the minds of West Virginia voters. Obama has a 30-64 approval rating in the state.
Luckily for Manchin, he can hang his candidacy on Byrd’s memory. Voters approve of
the work Byrd did, 68-23, and want his legacy carried on by his replacement, 52-33.
Your link to twitter.com doesn’t provide anything about this race.
http://twitter.com/HotlineJosh
“PPP: Prime GOP pickup opportunity in West Virginia. Raese 46, Manchin 43.”
The poll will be released tomorrow:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/were-going-to-have-our-first-look-out.html
Rasmussen yesterday gave the Dem a small lead: 50-43 with leaners, 47-42 without leaners:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/west_virginia/election_2010_west_virginia_senate_special_election
And this is why I didn’t mourn the liberal Republican who they wanted to run declining. WV leans conservative in the last presidential elections. They lean conservative in their personal lives. They just haven’t voted conservative at a state level out of tradition, and in past had a strong appetite for pork. But in a wave election a decent conservative candidate should theoretically have a good chance even against a popular Democrat.
This is the race I have wanted the GOP to fight for, maybe now they will.
Obama has a more than 70% disapproval rating in this State. If Raese can turn Manchin into Obama, he wins.
I am ever the optimist, but wow! I have been racing to keep my optimistic outlook updated as events keep turning our way.
It will cost the Dems a small fortune to contest this, when a few short weeks ago it may have seemed that it was one of a few races that they could count on winning without having to blow the budget.
Yippeeee!
Who is the R and who is the D? Unless we live there, how could we know?
BHO’s agenda is absolutely killing the Democrat brand out here in fly over country.
They have nowhere to run and nowhere to hide.