If War Comes: Israel vs. Hizbollah and its Allies

Washington Institute of Near East Policy ^

[jhpigott]

If War Comes: Israel vs. Hizbollah and its Allies Jeffrey White

Policy Focus #106 | September 2010 The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

The past several months have seen much discussion of growing tensions between Israel and Hizballah, along with the group’s allies, Syria and Iran. If war does in fact come to Israel’s northern border, it would bear little resemblance to the 2006 conflict in Lebanon. Instead, it would in all likelihood be a transformational, even fateful, event for the region—certainly for Hizballah and Lebanon, probably for Syria, and perhaps even for Iran. Israel and its regional standing would likely undergo substantial alterations as well.

[jhpigott]

This article has been quoted by a number of sources in the past couple days, so I wanted to dig up the original. It's long (60 pages) but very much worth the read if you want to get a good idea about what the next Israeli war is going to look like.

[Eagles6]

save

[jhpigott]

ping

[BenLurkin]

Terror allies....

[unkus]

ping

[Uncle Ike]

” what the next Israeli war is going to look like. “

Only if Israel develops a ‘let ‘em squawk’ attitude towards the Media and ‘International Community’ chattering classes...

If Israel continues to modify their efforts, trying to mollify their implacable foes, they will lose....

[Stonewall Jackson]

A very interesting read.

[Blueflag]

Good read. Worth the effort.

[upchuck]

Ping.

[upchuck]

It’s (contraction of “it is”) not nice to mess with God’s Chosen People.

[rbmillerjr]

Great find and fascinating article for warfare/military wonks.

[CynicalBear]

>>If Israel continues to modify their efforts, trying to mollify their implacable foes, they will lose....<<

I disagree. Read Ezek 38-39 and you will see what happens in that war. It will be Russia, Iran, Syria and other Mid East countries against Israel but it will not be Israel that loses.

[jhpigott]

+1

One of the better military analysis of the situation I’ve read

[SJackson]

Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume

If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.

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[SunkenCiv]

Thanks jhpigott.

Link to the underlying PDF:

http://washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus106.pdf

[SunkenCiv]

Israel has taken exactly that course of action in every war, including the most recent war in Lebanon and the bitch-slapping in Gaza; for that matter, stopping that Turkish terrorist flotilla. Israel doesn’t wage war gladly, only to combat against or pre-empt existential threats.

In the 1967 War Dayan et al pushed harder at the end to make sure that the stop line was where they wanted it when the ceasefire was to take effect, and to hell with world opinion.

The Arabs had their opportunity to accept ceasefire earlier on, but no one would tell Nasser the true picture, all he had to go on was the propaganda throughout Egyptian media. When the ragged surviving remnant of his broken offensive forces started swimming the Suez Canal, the status (non-functioning) of the Egyptian Air Forces and facilities were made known to him.

In 1973 the Arabs pulled off the greatest sleight-of-hand in their long history of lies and deceptions and caught Israel unawares.

And still got the living crap kicked out of them.

It was their worst defeat since 1948 in a real sense, and ended their conventional war era. Costly as it was for Israel, the humiliation of the 1973 defeat has never left the Syrian mind; their debacles in Lebanon (including getting booted out during the erstwhile Cedar Revolution) and over Lebanon (devastating dogfight losses vs Israel), and the destruction of their nuclear weapons facility probably means they will never make peace, and should just be wiped off the map. But I’d like to see that anyway.

And the Israeli push as the 1973 war went on was very much like the earlier Six-Day War; the diplomatic pressure was on, and the Russians were just flat-out faked out of their jocks by Henry Kissinger and Anwar Sadat. The Russians continued to delay and resist ceasefire efforts, and encourage their supposed allies in Egypt and Syria to do the same. After the IDF pushed over the Suez Canal, Sadat went up in flames, thinking the whole deal he thought he’d worked out was falling apart.

In retrospect, it’s perhaps too bad it didn’t.

The Israelis were persuaded by the level of combat that an invasion of Egypt couldn’t be sustained, and turned again toward Syria. Syrian tank losses were roughly 1000 out of an original almost 1400. The Russian tactics and arms proved slightly effective in the early going.

Funny how hard people will fight when their lives are at stake. The Russians apparently forgot about that.