[rbg81]

Good analysis. But while Carter and Obama were both incompetent, Obama is taking us further to the Left faster than Carter ever did. I do think (despite all that) that Obama will be a strong contender in 2012 and that it will be a close rase. Unlike you, I don’t think he has it cinched.

[chimera]

Well, thinking it over, let me walk that back a bit. I don't know that Obama has it cinched. If things stay as they are or get better economically, I think the odds are very strongly in his favor for the reasons I mentioned earlier. To beat him, two things have to happen. First, things have to get worse for the county as a whole. Those can be economic, foreign policy, or, like with Carter, both. Second, we need a very strong, very good candidate in 2012, someone with a good personal background, estimable personality, and a record of achievement, who has broad national appeal to a wide swath of voters spanning the political spectrum. We had one in ‘80. I just don't see anyone like that shaping up on our side by 2012. People like Romney, Palin, or Huckabee are going to get absolutely slaughtered by Obama. The media and the ‘Rats will turn them into a caricature of their true selves, like they did Goldwater in ‘64.