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Well, thinking it over, let me walk that back a bit. I don't know that Obama has it cinched. If things stay as they are or get better economically, I think the odds are very strongly in his favor for the reasons I mentioned earlier. To beat him, two things have to happen. First, things have to get worse for the county as a whole. Those can be economic, foreign policy, or, like with Carter, both. Second, we need a very strong, very good candidate in 2012, someone with a good personal background, estimable personality, and a record of achievement, who has broad national appeal to a wide swath of voters spanning the political spectrum. We had one in ‘80. I just don't see anyone like that shaping up on our side by 2012. People like Romney, Palin, or Huckabee are going to get absolutely slaughtered by Obama. The media and the ‘Rats will turn them into a caricature of their true selves, like they did Goldwater in ‘64.

I think that Mitch Daniels (Gov of Indiana) or Chris Christie would be strong challengers to Obama. Both are very plain spoken and exhude credibility. Obama may be a good campaigner, but I think he has demonstrated he isn’t up to governing. Unlike you, I think Romney would also do well, but he definitely has more baggage. Agree that Palin and Huckabee would get slaughtered—add Gingrich to that list too.