Carter won in ‘76 largely as an unknown quantity riding a wave of post-Watergate disillusionment with the ‘Pubs. Obama was a largely unknown quantity in 2008 riding a tide of anti-Bush feelings, which tainted the ‘Pub brand. So ‘76 and ‘08 match up. In ‘80 we had a strong candidate with national appeal running against a President who was clearly out of his depth and had lost the confidence of the voters. I’m not sure we’ll have a similar alignment in 2012. Obama is a stronger (staged) personality than Carter on the campaign trail, and I don’t see anyone waiting in the wings to take on the role of RWR (no, Palin isn’t it).
Good analysis. But while Carter and Obama were both incompetent, Obama is taking us further to the Left faster than Carter ever did. I do think (despite all that) that Obama will be a strong contender in 2012 and that it will be a close rase. Unlike you, I don’t think he has it cinched.