Not sure I agree. In 2012, unlike 2008, I think people will have the context of how Obama has governed. The closest analogy is that of Jimmy Carter. Good campaigner, but he couldn’t talk his way out of 4 years of decline and failure.
Carter won in ‘76 largely as an unknown quantity riding a wave of post-Watergate disillusionment with the ‘Pubs. Obama was a largely unknown quantity in 2008 riding a tide of anti-Bush feelings, which tainted the ‘Pub brand. So ‘76 and ‘08 match up. In ‘80 we had a strong candidate with national appeal running against a President who was clearly out of his depth and had lost the confidence of the voters. I’m not sure we’ll have a similar alignment in 2012. Obama is a stronger (staged) personality than Carter on the campaign trail, and I don’t see anyone waiting in the wings to take on the role of RWR (no, Palin isn’t it).