Governor Palin Leads the 2012 GOP Texas Primary

Conservatives4Palin ^

[wk4bush2004]

She leads the 2012 Texas GOP presidential primary:

Palin 20% Gingrich 15% Huckabee 13% Romney 13% Paul 8% Perry 7% Bush 3% Barbour 2% Pawlenty 1%

The crosstabs show her leading the field among rural and suburban voters. She leads among those with a 4-year college degree. She leads in every age group but the 30-44 age group.

On the other side, Obama leads the 2012 Texas Democrat Party presidential primary:

Obama 62% Clinton 31%

[wk4bush2004]

Of course Sarah's popular in Texas! She'll definitely carry the Lone Star State, hands down!

[Robbin]

Outstanding!

[WyvernAK]

While I am great supporter of Sarah, I feel it should be pointed out that its looks like this survey came from.....Conservatves4Palin. Not exactly an unbiased source of polling.

[2ndDivisionVet]

It’s a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll, Conservatives4Palin merely blogged on it.

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/texas-political-news/uttt-poll-texans-unhappy-with-obama/

[WyvernAK]

Still don't let yourselves get carried away from just one poll, we have spent years, heck decades reading polls that say whatever its creators want it to say. If true, wonderful, but until I see a lot more leaning in that direction, even from people who would hate to see her on the ballot I will take polls like this with a huge grain of salt.

[jagusafr]

Wow - liberal Longhorn heads are exploding all over the Texas Union...

Colonel, USAFR

[humblegunner]

Blogs and polls are both full of crap.

Besides, how can someone who has not declared any candidacy win a poll for any office?

It’s stupid.

[Joe Boucher]

Come on man,
From what the media say Saracuda is an ignorant hick from Alaska.
Seems she sure has twisted the Dems and Pubbies nuts here now lately hasn’t it?

[ansel12]

After two posts, I guess we get the message that you don’t like the results.

[WyvernAK]

In correct, I like Sarah Palin and would love to vote for her in 2012. I am just saying that like every other poll put out these days, take it with salt and look for a larger picture before you say “LOOK LOOK A LAND SLIDE FOR US!!!! HURAAH !!

Same thing that bothers me with Republicans celebrating months ahead of the November Elections.

Don't trust polls.... after years you would think we would have learned better.

[ansel12]

Look at the poll again.

I think you can relax about fearing that conservatives are ready to call it a day now, and go lay on the couch for the next 2 years.

[Ole Okie]

(Among Dems) Obama 62% Clinton 31%

I've known a lot of Texas Democrats. Thought they had more sense than that.

[WyvernAK]

Yes, I just did and I feel I must point out that any poll that puts Gingrich at 15% and second in the pack must have some thing wrong with it. Maybe they were only polling people who were in a coma from 1994 till now and the first thing they read was a good piece on Sarah Palin. Really, who in their right mind thinks Newt should be anywhere near our top pick for 2012?

Now don't get me wrong, I have liked and respected Sarah Palin since she gave the going away speech to my Brigade in Fort Wainwright AK back in late 2008 “Same Brigade as her son” and think she is by far the best person to put forward for 2012, to hell with the MSM, but don't get your hopes up on just one poll. Especially one with Newt in second place :)

[bwc2221]

“Besides, how can someone who has not declared any candidacy win a poll for any office?”

By being polled against other people who have not declared any candidacy.”

If Palin were not leading, would it be more credible to you?

[ansel12]

Do us all a favor and quit wasting our time with your silly, lectures about polls.

[humblegunner]

No.

Polls about folks who are not running for office are equivalent
to polls about which high school volleyball team will win the Superbowl.

Irrelevant.

[WyvernAK]

Ouch.... OK I guess I will keep my views to myself.Sorry to have offended you so much.

[altair]

Don't trust polls

Polls can be valid. History has shown that there are right ways and wrong ways to go about conducting them. No poll this far out from a general election (twice removed) means anything other than name recognition.

Scott Rasmussen seems to do a pretty good job of it.

A good poll is a reflection of the intent of the people polled during the time the poll was taken. The polls we have now for the coming general election are a decent reflection of what will probably happen, but circumstances change, people change their minds, etc.

What we ("we" as in the people reading poll results) do not do is apply enough weight to how a poll was conducted or who conducted the poll. Just saying XXX poll says YYY is going to win ZZZ% of the vote communicates absolutely nothing.

[altair]

Yes, I just did and I feel I must point out that any poll that puts Gingrich at 15% and second in the pack must have some thing wrong with it.

No. It's also up to you to interpret what the results mean. It's been common wisdom that any poll this far in advance of an election (2+ years) is little more than a name recognition contest.

What's wrong with it, is that you are attempting to apply any special meaning to it. Most people know Newt Gingrich and memories of 1995-1996 have started to fade.

Think of Mr. Newt as the Republican lite version of Teddy Kennedy. After his swimming expedition, Kennedy was never electable as President. Still, the name held magic for people and in pre-primary seasons, he always polled very high. In 1980, against a failed Presidency, and with high preseason poll numbers in hand, he threw his hat into the ring and failed.

Mr. Newt has more name recognition than others on the list. Nothing more.

[WyvernAK]

I agree with what you are saying, it's just that before I allow myself to believe a poll putting Sarah Palin as the leader of the pack, as much as I like it, I want to see more polls from across the conservative board say something like the same before I will give it any special credence. If this poll is true, that Sarah Palin is truly the front runner, great, its the best thing I have heard this summer. I just want more then on lone poll. Give it a few days, or better a month for things to settle down.