Posted on 09/16/2010 5:48:17 AM PDT by gumbyandpokey
Your sign in date indicates you might be fairly new. Let me explain about posting polls hear. In general all polls that show what we want to hear are good and all polls that do not show what we want are bad.
You may not be aware that generic polls trend strongly toward democrats so much so that even a tie is very bad news for the democrats. Also, that the generic polls are a better forecast the further we are from an election. They are useful tools to get the mood of the people when no one knows who the candidates will be. The closer we get to election day more people have names and parties they identify and to get a better picture one needs to look at the sum total of individual races. So as time progresses, the generic poll will be a lesser predictor than the individual polls.
My view is to consider each poll as good unless things that make you question. First, I’d like to see how the trend is going for the particular pollster. The trend is important and likely more accurate. For example, following the trend of this poll in the next several weeks may be more revealing. It may be that this polls base line is different than the others but still reveal a major win for republicans.
Second, when internal information in the poll is contradicting it causes me to look for reasons. When this polls shows we have expectations out of sink with what each says they will do we have the possibility the people are lying to the pollsters or that the pollsters have a flawed poll.
Third, when there is a major shift in energy of the voters it becomes very difficult for the pollsters to identify likely voters. This election has me confused because we are seeing many signs that the pollsters are missing the likely voter ratios because the polls going into primaries have been off. The pollsters may not have a handle on the likely voters yet. Each time they do a poll they are gathering data to help them determine likely voters and can adjust accordingly. Other pollsters may have better data for determining that key assumption.
The entire website looks like one large the DNC cheerleading ad !
I know the entire staff are hard core Obama drones ans many camre from the Wash Compost/ Slime magazine.
I would like an investigation into the left wing outfit and where did the funds came from to set up this Dem party front group.
Leftico is the most dangerous left wing propaganda outfit in the US now.
It’s unbelievable we are still at even.... can California really have Boxer back in her seat.... it will take a full blown depression for some to see the light.
Politico and GWU are so left wing, that they can’t make right turns while walking or driving.
I believe nothing that comes out of Politico.
Politico commission the poll. Politico is a Democrat propaganda outlet. Therefore this poll should be treated like any other poll put out by a Democrat polling group. Consider this the best the Dems will do and Rass the worse the Dems will do and some where in the middle is probably where the truth is right now.
Dem’s will poll anyway they can to get favorable results. If they would have polled just “adults” the Dems would have come out way ahead but that would have been to obvious so they instead polled registered voters which at least makes it “appear” they are in the game. Had they polled in a way which is most accurate they would have asked the questions of only likely voters and would have gotten a more accurate answer showing the Rep ahead as most every other poll has them when polling this way.
“Sorry wrong , Battleground shifted to the Left in 2008 and is very pro Dem party .”
I beg to differ. In 2008 they shifted their weighting late in the presidential contest because of a trend that had established itself. In the end they were nearly right on the money with their call.
This poll along with the recent Gallop poll is a little bit concerning, though I would not push the panic button just yet.
If we want the kind of massive take over of both houses of congress and get a sizable lead in the house we should be seeing the republicans well out ahead of the democrats in these generic ballot polls.
Strangely, in 2008, GWU and IBD were touted as the only two polling companies that were accurate. (Coincidentally, they happened to have better results for McCain than others at the time.)
The point being, we need to focus on the polls themselves, and any methodological problems that a particular poll might have, rather than shifting the attack to the polling company.
I’m not sure where that page actually came from, because your link goes to the Politico homepage. In any event, the poll results are below, and just skimming them, it looks TERRIFIC for the GOP...
http://www.politico.com/static/PPM156_battleground_questionnaire.html
http://www.politico.com/static/PPM169_12676wt_politico_v2.html
GOOD!
I fear our side will get complacent and not get out the vote,
let our side keep on its toes....
(ps I dont believe for one minute that we are not going to cream the marxists this go round....)
There are 8 Dem seats in play in NY (Bishop, McMahon, Hall, Murphy, Owens, Maffei, Arcuri, Massa). And since when is PA not part of the Northeast?
Battleground, in particular, was tied in 94?
But the other BG was way off the entire 2008 election then shifted left after the Dem member demanded it and naturally shifted the race back to closer near the end like all the push pollster who try to save face after they impacted the news cycle for the 90 days with a slanted poll data!
But the other BG was way off the entire 2008 election then shifted left after the Dem member demanded it and naturally shifted the race back to closer near the end like all the push pollster who try to save face after they impacted the news cycle for the 90 days with a slanted poll data!
Polling is a business, closer the polls, better the business. Do you think it’s that are to tweak the poll slightly. It’s only important that your poll is accurate the day before -really.
Either this poll is BS, or too many voters really are “politically ignorant” and/or “politically stupid”.
What’s the track record for the predictive ability of the generic ballot polls?
I’m afraid we’re overconfident and listening too much to radio guys that have an increased listenership when we’re enthused.
Yes, we can sweep. But no - it is NOT a foregone conclusion. We will not get out of this hole in one election cycle. Millions of marchers in DC are nice, but many more millions need to turn out their friends and neighbors to achieve meaningful victory.
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