Posted on 09/14/2010 8:57:10 PM PDT by Uncledave
Most of the reasonably well-informed Repubicans I know think the race for the Republican presidential nomination is wide-open. They see a field of high-profile candidates consisting potentially of Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Newt Gingrich, along with a few successful governors such as Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, Bobby Jindal, or Chris Christie. This sort of clash seems particularly intriguing because the potential candidates can be viewed as representing establishment/country club Republicans (Romney), evangelical Republicans (Huckabee), Tea Party Republicans (Palin), the spirit of 1994 (Gingrich), and good government Republicans (the governors).
But, as I've suggested before, there's another way of looking at 2012 that I find at least as plausible: the nomination is Sarah Palin's to lose. This view is based on a series of assumptions, all of which I consider fairly strong, though certainly subject to question.
The first assumption is that Palin will run. Her decision to quit during the middle of her first term as governor of Alaska can be viewed as evidence that she does not want to hold office. But it can also be viewed as reflecting her sense that the Alaska job wasn't big enough for her. In any event, her behavior during this election season demonstrates that, at a minimum, she's keeping the option of a presidential run open. I think there's a good chance she will exercise that option.
The second assumption is that the Tea Party movement will back Palin and that she will capture most of the Tea Party vote. Her reception at Glenn Beck's rally convinces me that this assumption is sound. Moreover, Palin and the Tea Party Express have been on the same page in most (but not all) of the hot primary contests this year. Finally, where else is that vote going to go? Romney instituted a program of mandatory health insurance in Massachusetts. Huckabee was not a small government governor. Gingrich was a Washington insider. Governors who actually served out their terms probably made some tough decisions that won't appeal to Tea Party purists.
The third assumption is that, backed by the Tea Party movement, Palin can win between 30 and 40 percent of the vote in many of the early multi-candidate primaries and caucuses. This doesn't seem like a reach, given the vote count for Tea Party movement candidates this year. In Nevada, for example, Sharron Angle (unfancied at first) won the Senate nomination in a three main candidate race with 40 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, across the country, Christine O'Donnell, who has never made a mark in prior campaigns, seems set to ride Tea Pary support (plus that of Palin) to a strong showing and possible primary victory, albeit in a field devoid of a true conservative option.
The fourth assumption is that Palin can ride a vote count of 30 to 40 percent in crowded early primaries to the front of the pack and then increase that count to 50 percent plus as the field narrow in the later primaries. John McCain's campaign in 2008 supports the view that a candidate can get out front by consistently winning 30 to 40 percent of the vote in the early, multi-candidate field. What might happen once the field narrows is anyone's guess. But unless Palin self-destructs along the way, I question whether anyone in the likely field is capable of defeating her head-to-head.
By now, I've ventured further into the realm of speculation than even I'm comfortable going. But you get the idea: if Sarah Palin seeks the presidential nomination, it will be quite plausible to view her not as one of many or even "first among equals," but as the clear front-runner.
If you do not understand that Mitt Romney is the current favorite to win this nomination, you have no sense of history, reality, or how the GOP works.
Palin is a contender, and might win. But odds are that Romney wins this thing.
DO NOT RELAX, DO NOT GET COMPLACENT. Remember, NOBODY here thought John McCain could win the nomination last time.
Maybe. I like Sarah but will have to wait and see how things shake out. Must now concentrate on 2010.
No mention of Jim DeMint....why am I not surprised?
The GOP can shove it where the sun don’t shine.
Palin is a moron and will never win the General. So, keep praying for Obama’s second term and an 8-year nightmare for our country.
Republican party better wake up, because they are about to be dead.
And Sarah is the only one moving the ball down the court.
Only dead fish go with the flow.
This site has a lot of pull with all stripes of conservatives, the GOP heavies and even the MSM. It's kind of mind blowing with his quote that the nomination is now Sarah Palin's to lose.
Probably because he keeps saying he’s not running.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2588462/posts
Romney is the front-runner, but I wouldn't call him the favorite. Front-runners have not fared well lately, and RomneyCare isn't going to help him any.
I'd put Romney as a much better chance of beating Obama than Palin....but I like Palin's politics much better. Though I do not see "President" in Palin at all. I just don't. She is too emotional. To fast. She looks to have quick responses to questions instead of serious answers. That will be her undoing if she were to get the nomination.
A sitting Governor is the way to go. Thune has some interest from me as well.
Perhaps because DeMint has said he’s not interested in running for president, rather he wants to establish the senate as conservative.
Please disagree with her policies and do not defame her. She is certainly not a moron by any stretch.
Democrats and the Dem media did their best to decimate Sarah Palin during her VP campaign and she has proven that success is the best revenge. Her power is awesome.
David the sheepherder boy will never defeat Goliath and become King of Israel.
Daniels and/or Jindal are my candidates. Buck is last and Palin is second from last.
Romney is a hard pill for me, but is slightly above moron Palin.
Yeah, and for all the same reasons, Castle is going to win the primary in Delaware -- only way it can turn out.
Ooooooops!
And Bennett is going to retain his Senate seat from Utah.
Ooooooops!
And only the good-old-boy can win the governor's primary in South Carolina.
Ooooooops!
And Murkowski is going to trounce Miller in Alaska.
Ooooooops!
Ooooooops!
Ooooooops!
I had a lot of respect for her although have never been a fan of her. But, by interfering in Primary battles and screwing with GOP majority, she really ticked me off.
Republican first, Conservative second, eh?
True. FWIW, Paul Mirengoff just had a public spat with Mark Levin over O’Donnell/Castle. This post might be a passive mea culpa of sorts.
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