Posted on 09/13/2010 7:14:47 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Apparently, there's no need to chronicle the autumn campaign season, because the conventional wisdom has already forecast a Republican takeover on Capitol Hill, and it seems that the sole remaining mystery is whether to characterize the November results as a "massacre" or a "tsunami."
Nobody has actually voted yet, of course, but that trifling detail won't slow the madly spinning wheels of our ever-accelerating news cycle. We're still 51 days shy of the balloting, yet the zeitgeist arbiters on the Politico website are already naming the high-ranking Democrats who will likely be blamed for the (a) massacre or (b) tsunami.
Far be it from me to defy conventional wisdom, particularly since all the polls are signaling a GOP congressional rebirth that will rival or exceed the Newt Gingrich takeover of 1994, nearly two years into Bill Clinton's presidency. But rather than wrap up the shortest column in journalistic history, I see some value in offering a counternarrative - if only because the CW sometimes errs, because surprises in politics do occur, and because Dewey did not beat Truman.
So I asked a few Democratic strategists to list the reasons President Obama's party might actually retain (shrunken) majorities in the House and Senate. At first they seemed utterly flummoxed, as if I had asked them to devise a method for removing their pants over their heads. But soon enough, like good partisans, they warmed to the task and concocted a plausible victory scenario (sort of):
Polls measure current sentiment, not future behavior. The current public mood is obviously toxic for the incumbent party, and the polls reflect that. But most people - devoted as they are to living their lives, getting their children back to school, watching America's Got Talent - have barely begun to focus on the midterm races. Democrats still have time to get a fair hearing, and to frame this election - not as a referendum on Obama, but as a choice between Obama's party and the party that flamed out in 2006 and 2008.
More money, better organization. The House Democratic campaign committee has a 2-1 cash advantage over its GOP counterpart. That means more money for TV ads, and more money for the ground game (knocking on doors, cajoling people to go to the polls). Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee, having absorbed Obama's Organizing for America campaign operation, is spending lavishly to methodically.
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That money thing is going to kick in late & thats the “October Surprise.”
It would behoove us to prepare for this certainty rather than be caught unawares...
The author’s case that all is not lost for Dems:
* Polls measure current sentiment, not future behavior.
There is still time to get a “fair” hearing.
* More money, better organization
Democratic campaign committee has a 2-1 cash advantage over its GOP counterpart. That means more money for TV ads, and more money for the ground game. The RNC on the other hand is being led by the inept Michael Steele.
* Obama is in Truman Mode
He’s feisty on the stump and giving the GOP hell on the road.
* The GOP is worse than the Democrats
The polls consistently show that the congressional GOP is broadly unpopular. They are not exactly loved by the voters.
The author’s case that all is not lost for Dems:
* Polls measure current sentiment, not future behavior.
There is still time to get a “fair” hearing.
* More money, better organization
Democratic campaign committee has a 2-1 cash advantage over its GOP counterpart. That means more money for TV ads, and more money for the ground game. The RNC on the other hand is being led by the inept Michael Steele.
* Obama is in Truman Mode
He’s feisty on the stump and giving the GOP hell on the road.
* The GOP is worse than the Democrats
The polls consistently show that the congressional GOP is broadly unpopular. They are not exactly loved by the voters.
I think every GOP leader should start downplaying the races and say things like “we hope to make up ground”
The author sounds...annoyed.
The commie 'RATS are acting like Obama's "crown jewel" doesn't exist although Rimshot Joe says it's a BFD.
All will be lost for Democrats only when the Fed runs out of ink.
The GOP has shown itself to be quite good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Oh hell yeah...and maybe we could apologize for Bush and the TEA party movement while we’re at it....
That, I agree with.
I know all of that what is your point?
Charlie Cook (yeh, the basically Dem pollster) pulverized the argument on Bill Bennett this AM. In a nut-shell, since 1946, when they started keeping this kind of statistics , there have been (about) 750 months. 14 months have had unemployment above 9.5%. A whole lot of them have been recent. In 1994 , when the Republicans wrested control, unemployment was 5.4%.
Oh hell yeah...and maybe we could apologize for Bush and the TEA party movement while we’re at it...You are misunderstanding my post, I think. We should downplay our belief about how many seats we will pick up in order to keep the dems from having anything to hang their hats on come election night. If the common prediction is that we will take 55 seats in the House but only take 45, then the MSM will spin the massive loss somehow into a "win" for the dems. Personally, I think we will wind up closer to 65+ seats, but you never know what can happen.
Never underestimate the power of Republicans to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
November is judgment day for the media. They are now back in full campaign mode as the fools are looking much more foolish. Expect tons of misinformation, things are much better than they appear and the other guys are worse stories....
RE: I know all of that what is your point?
NOT TO BE COCKY AND COMPLACENT.
Then we agree.
Thank you for your post.
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