I pretty sure the only model he's relying on is the one where he sniffs the glue.
Posted on 09/12/2010 8:25:19 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Two months after White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs let slip that Republicans could take over the House of Representatives in November, the Democrats’ prospects have only grown bleaker: No one seems to think that they have a prayer. Nate Silver announced Friday that Republicans have a two-thirds chance of gaining control of the House. Charlie Cook says the Republicans will win “well north of the 39 seats needed for the House to flip,” while, at a recent gathering of the American Political Science Association, several academics predicted Republican gains of 50 seats.
But not everyone has written off the Democrats just yet. Deep in the heart of red country, Rob Mellen, an assistant professor of political science and public administration at Mississippi State University, has something that offers liberals a flicker of hope: a model that shows Democrats keeping a slim majority of the House of Representatives—between 224 and 226 of the House’s 435 seats.
Mellen’s isn’t the only model that shows the Democrats holding on to the House. But unlike the others in this category, which look mostly at slow-changing economic fundamentals, Mellen’s model shows that President Obama himself can make a difference between now and Election Day. Mellen looks at the impact of presidential campaign appearances on behalf of House candidates in midterm elections. With just two exceptions—George W. Bush in 2002 and Bill Clinton in 1998—the party of the sitting president has lost House seats in every midterm election since FDR’s Democrats picked up seats in 1934. “I’m looking to see if making these campaign appearances can actually help to mitigate these losses,” Mellen says.
Conventional wisdom holds that they do not. “To help Democrats in the fall, Obama may stay away,” was the headline of a New York Times article in July. And yet Mellen’s model shows otherwise. When the president visits a toss-up race in a congressional district, his candidate goes on to win the election about 50 percent of the time; when the president sits out a toss-up race, his party’s candidate wins just 35 percent of the time.
The improvement has to do with the so-called enthusiasm gap. The dire predictions for the Democrats in November don’t necessarily assume a defection of voters from the Democratic Party to the GOP. Rather, Republican voters, riled up by being out of power, are more likely to turn out in the midterms; Democrats, resting on their laurels after the 2008 landslide, are much more likely to sit this one out.
A presidential visit to a toss-up race, according to Mellen, inspires some Democrats who would otherwise skip the polls to actually vote. Voter turnout always declines from presidential-year to midterm elections, but midterm toss-up races visited by the president see a lower decline in turnout than expected. Essentially, a visit from the president helps his party to narrow the enthusiasm gap that traditionally favors his opponents.
Not everyone is on board with Mellen’s findings. “It’s a stretch to say this factor is enough to keep the House Democratic,” says Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. “Most models are suggesting a strong GOP victory.” Michael Lewis-Beck of the University of Iowa says “Visits seem to help little, if at all.” And Mellen will be the first to admit that his model isn’t rosy for Democrats: It still predicts they will drop 30-something seats.
What Mellen’s model does do is offer the groundwork for a plan for President Obama and the Democrats to minimize their losses. With the House likely to be split somewhere near 50-50 between the parties, a concerted campaign effort by President Obama could save for the Democrats the handful of seats needed to retain a bare majority. A huge number of races this year are counted as statistical toss-ups—45, according to The Cook Political Report. If Obama visits half of those, he’ll steal the title of most active campaigner from George W. Bush, who hit up 22 districts in 2002. He’s unlikely to be as successful as Bush, who won 19 of those races, but the recent proliferation of polling data should help his cause. For one thing, it’s already kept the Democrats from being caught off-guard like they were by the Republican Revolution in 1994. And it at least makes it easier for the Obama team to choose the districts he’s most likely to save. “If his campaign team and strategists work things properly, they’ll be able to put the president where he matters most,” Mellen says. “If Obama’s success rate is roughly the same as his predecessors… the Democrats would hold the House.”
Whether Obama and his team effectively use polling data to intervene in toss-up districts remains to be seen; The New York Times article from July seemed to suggest they wouldn’t. “I think much of the House is in a wait-and-see mode to see how helpful the president will be,” Rep. Elijah E. Cummings, (D-MD) told the Times. “He has to come into these districts with the same gusto and the same sense of hope that he came into the election with.”
Really do not care if the Dems keep a “slim” majority...the point is to take as many seats as possible so that the Dems simply cannot shove legislative garbage down the Americans throats at will......
Assistant Professor Rob Mellon is a dipshit. He’s taking an awful big gamble that his wild ass prediction will come true. Morelike we’ll never hear from him again after November.
What this analysis does not bother to mention is the favorable ratings of those Presidents who hit the campaign trail for the mid terms.
None of the Presidents cited was nearly as toxic politically as 0 currently is. To suggest that the same standard of a normal Presidency can be applied to 0's current toxic ratings is absurd nonsense.
Did this guy ask any of the House Dems if they WANT Bam-Bam to campaign for them?
Most have been heading for the hills as soon as Obama enters their time zone.
I hope Obama campaigns in every House race he can get to this year.
If wishes were fish we’d all throw nets, this poor guy is casting furiously now.
Speaking of Gibbs I haven’t seen his pudgy little face much lately, seems like he is avoiding the spotlight as hard as he can. I wonder how much longer he will last, he must know there’s a place right under the drive shaft of Obama’s bus with his name on it soon.
Shhhhh. I say, tell 0 to go with it.
And he should be sure to mention 0care and his cap-n-tax at every campaign stop.
In order to keep the Dem majority, Soetero needs to endorse Republican candidates.
I hope The republicans turn out in mass, don’t give an inch
If 0bama comes into my district(VA9), it would probably make our ‘conservative dem’ congressman more vulnerable. The race is already listed as being “close”, but there’s no way in hell the GOP is gonna win(not my wishes, just reality). If 0bama comes here, that could all change. lol
This theory may have worked if the Dems hadn’t bankrupted the country. But all bets are off now. Any/all models are worthless.
I so hope he comes here to support Chet Edwards..It would allow us to finally have a Republican Congressman.
My usual warning applies. Let's not measure the drapes yet. The 'Rats have one huge trump card yet to play, and that is money. We may find ourselves sucker-punched in October when the ad buys the 'Rats can afford start hitting the airwaves. That combined with the free ads they get from the mainstream news may add up to a potent punch. That's why we need to keep our shoulders to the wheel, cough up the cash for our candidates, and drive through the tape in November.
Chet Edwards is advertising hit pieces on Flores in Texas nonstop..He has the money.
I sincerely hope Chet bites the dust this time. Will Obama be coming to Waco to “help” Chet out?
We are more Republican here despite having a Dim Congressman..I don’t expect Zero in Waco.
Evidently, John Cornyn agrees with him.
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