Posted on 09/09/2010 1:19:57 PM PDT by Kaslin
As the November 2nd election draws closer, it appears evident that the GOP will score a major victory. The Cooke Report, a non-partisan group known for its polling accuracy, conservatively predicts that Republicans will pick up between 35 and 45 seats. Assuming this outcome, what are the implications for President Obama? Will he be able to win reelection in 2012?
The midterm elections of 1982 and 1994 offer important insights into the 2010 election. After an economy that saw the unemployment rate rise from 7.5% in January of 1981 to an average of 9.7% in 1982, the Republicans lost 26 seats in the House. Similarly, unpopular policies ranging from the 1993 tax increase on individuals making over $125,000 to the failed HillaryCare resulted in a loss of 54 Congressional seats for the Democrats in 1994.
Both of these elections were referendums on the perceived negative direction of the country. The same will be true with the midterm election this year. When the stimulus package was passed in March of 2009, the unemployment rate stood at 6.7%. Despite the $787 billion that was pumped into the economy, the unemployment rate has risen to an abysmal 9.6%.
Obama’s prospects in 2012 will depend on his political pragmatism. Reagan was able to reverse his fortunes through policies that were advantageous to the American economy. The Economic Recovery Tax of 1981 created growth by cutting the top marginal tax rate from 70% to 50% and cutting the lowest tax rate from 14% to 11%. The later growth that emanated from these tax cuts led to his landslide reelection in 1984 over Walter Mondale.
Despite what Milton Friedman characterized as his socialist views, Clinton took the pragmatic route and pursued a more conservative policy agenda after 1994. At the encouragement of the Republican Congress, President Clinton signed welfare reform into law through the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act in 1996. He also placed an emphasis on fiscal responsibility which later led to surpluses of $69 billion in 1998 and $125 billion in 1999.
Will Obama follow the course of Reagan and Clinton? It seems unlikely. For starters, Obama is intent on allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire. This would result in increases for every tax bracket. The tax brackets which are currently 10, 15, 25, 28, 33 and 35 percent would be replaced by a new tax structure resulting in the following brackets: 15, 28, 31, 36, and 39.5%. Many have concerns over increasing taxes on the wealthiest individuals due to they’re instrumental in job creation. This will have a depressing effect on an economy that is certain to experience a double dip recession.
Equally problematic is the announcement of further stimulus measures by Obama in Milwaukee on Monday that the Administration is considering a long-term jobs bill. Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, Obama continues to believe that high unemployment can be cured through even more spending.
Reagan and Clinton were reelected due to the positive effects of their legislation. Reagan was acting on principle when he cut taxes while Clinton reluctantly moved to the right in order to allow for economic growth. Obama however, is committed to the liberal ideology and the redistributionary policies that come with it. The new Republican majority will pose problems for the ability of Obama to pass his agenda but this will not be a sufficient excuse. The 2012 election will be a further referendum on the economy and if Obama continues to pursue liberal policies, this will be his downfall.
Because Barack hussein Obama doesn’t like America and is in the WARP SPEED process, a;long with the Pelosi and Reid factions of Democrats of tearing it down.
If he loses either the House or at the very least loses enough votes in the Senate to not have a filibuster-proof majority then his agenda is finished. He shows no sign of moving to the center to work with the lesser liberals in the GOP.
Maybe he'll get so bored with nothing to do that he'll ponder resigning.
“As the November 2nd election draws closer, it appears evident that the GOP will score a major victory.”
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We don’t know that yet; this could be the miracle that has always been hoped for!
Perhaps We The People are more intelligent than any of us have given us credit for.
Maybe this is the year we are really fed up with this stinkin’ two-party system (so-called)—two heads of the same coin—the sought after lesser of evils, but always equally evil in one way or another.
Maybe...perhap not..
We’ll see, God willing...
Democrats would be suicidal to allow increases like that on the lower brackets.
There are enough wishy-washy senators that even if we win the Senate outright we will be in danger there.
The House, however, has been as solid as anyone could hope for.
Reagan followed The Constitution. 0bama flaunts The Constittuion.
Reagan was self-effacing; 0bama is self important.
Reagan worked with people; 0bama dictates to people.
Reagan loved this Country. 0bama hates this Country.
Reagan was an American; 0bama is a kenyan.
Utter Bunk.
The National Debt has increased every year since the middle of the Eisenhower administration.
Clinton survived because the republicans nominated a 73 year old senator. Wish we’d learned our lesson!
The Republicans will have to decide whether to stand up for the rule of law and separation of powers, or avoid a Constitutional showdown, acquiesce, and let it ride. If they do the latter then all will have been for nought.
This is the key difference between the Reagan and Obama scenarios. Reagan was able to say, hang in there, relief is coming, tax cuts are in place, growth will follow. It took some time to be effective, but when it was, the economy prospered.
Contrast that with Obama's message. What is it? What does Obama offer us to look forward to? Tax increases? That's about it. Not a very encouraging message, either for individuals or the economy as a whole.
Any more suicidal than 0bamacare? I agree with you but why has there been no bill introduced to keep the Bush tax cuts for the lower brackets? The Dems have all the power. They say that is what they want but where is the bill? There is no way the GOP would vote against it in an election year.
The GOP will argue for keeping the cuts for all taxpayers for at least 2 more years and they might convince some Dems to go along. Will 0bama veto it? It will be interesting to see how the ground war shapes up when Congress gets back.
>>>Clinton survived because the republicans nominated a 73 year old senator. Wish we’d learned our lesson!
McNasty was nominated for the Republicans by the media.
Yes! Doing nothing makes a 50% increase in the lowest bracket. Democrats represent themselves as friends of the poor. They will eat this one.
The question is will we have elected a group of actual Americans, or simply advanced more members of the ruling class. Won’t take long to find out.
Because this guy is nothing but a taller, tanner Jimmy Carter. And whenever you repeat the same process, you get the same results.
That’s a 50 percent increase in the bottom bracket. No democRAT has advocated stopping it. Plus you have various ‘’fees’ that have been envented, plus high med. ins costs, plus talk of a 20 percent VAT. This current crop of ‘’progressive, socialist, marxist, communist, RATS are going to have to be voted out for a generation or more, giving them time to die off, and maybe the democRAT party can return to what it once was.
It would amaze me if they were stupid enough to allow this. It is a game of chicken to see who blinks first.
PR tip - don’t refer to them anymore as the “Bush tax cuts” ...
.... call them the “Obama tax hikes”
.... ‘cuz that’s what they are. Tax rates are set by Congress, and if Obama & his team want to deliberately raise them now - which is what he said - then let this idiot take the full blame for it.
(The whole root of the problem, of course, is that the Democrats are addicted to spending, just like a crackhead to rock cocaine.)
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