Republicans Have One-in-Four Chance to Claim Senate Majority, Model Shows

New York Times ^ | 09/08/2010 | Nate Silver

[SeekAndFind]

SEE HERE FOR SENATE RACE RATINGS MAP AS DESCRIBED IN THE ABOVE ARTICLE :

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Since 1940, every time the House has flipped the Senate has followed suit, even when they weren't supposed to.

The House is going to flip.

[Jack Hammer]

If the NYT says one in four, it’s probably more on the order of fifty-fifty - at least.

[saganite]

Here is Intrades take:

http://www.intrade.com/

[NorCoGOP]

My hunch is that "American Revolution 2.0" is coming in November.

Invest in companies that make "Hello! my name is_____" nametags, cause they will be selling like mad in Congress.

[misterrob]

Matters not. With the House in the Repubs control and a weak majority in the Senate the Dems are going to get nothing done

[frogjerk]

from - http://hotair.com/archives/2010/09/02/sabato-every-time-the-house-has-flipped/

Larry Sabato - If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover. Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency.

[ElkGroveDan]

One in four chance? Sure if we were rolling dice. But this isn’t random.

[Lazlo in PA]

Same modeling that had Kerry beating Bush on ‘04?

[ken5050]

I read this on RedState...posted by a reader, and it’s really interesting. The Dem “firewall” in the Senate is the left coast..California and Washington. If the GOP tide is really runnign very strong..we’ll know a lot of the east coast races early on, and that will serve to depress Dem turnout on the left coast. It could make the difference..

[RachelFaith]

Well, the Rachel Faith machine says there is a 100% chance of the GOP taking control of the US Senate.

How’d ya like THEM apples?

[RachelFaith]

Straight up. California and Washington BOTH fall to the GOP!

Next !!!

[SeekAndFind]

RE: The Dem “firewall” in the Senate is the left coast..California and Washington.

---

Well, something seems to be penetrating this so-called firewall.

In California, Meredith Whitman is UP against Jerry Brown in the polls.

Carly Fiorina is tied with Barbara (Don’t call me ma’am) Boxer or even slightly ahead.

[Republic Rocker]

Hate to say it but the firewall could work as the dumbification of states like mine Kalifornication is so low that the dumb understand the first letter of the word “(D)”.

[Crichton]

Silver's model is pretty basic, and the more complex parts are heavily judgmental. In addition, his pollster ratings are poor.

It's amazing the complete dearth of analytical talent publicly working on this sort of thing.

[DaxtonBrown]

I can tell you that Nevada is likely Red. I am about to review some pictures on Thursday which could blow the whole thing open. If anyone out there is from national media, they should contact me.

[ken5050]

A lot of the polls still list the Arkansas Senate race as “leans” GOP.. Hehehehehe..I’d hate to see what they call a sure pick-up

[ConjunctionJunction]

Pictures? Do tell...

[ConjunctionJunction]

Does Washington do all of its voting by mail now? Anybody know? If so, they might not be affected by election return results on the East coast.