This one I don’t believe. The GOP will pick up 5 other House seats in NC before they will beat Price. I’m nt saying that the GOP candidate can’t possibly be ahead of Price, just that he couldn’t be ahead of Price while Miller in NC-13 isn’t on anyone’s list of vulnerable incumbents, and that if Price was losing right now then Renee Ellmers would be up by 10% over Ethridge.
your thought process is completely wrong. Elmers has no money and has never ran. Lawson ran last time and has a good network going into this election
Well, sure, it's an internal poll.
But it may be as accurate as the Democrat polls for Shuler and Kissel's districts.
NC-4 is theoretically winnable. A lot of its Democratic strength is dependent on blacks and students.
Price ran even with Obama in 2008. He'd have to lose 15 points on turnout plus a 6 point swing in voter preference. 15 points is tsunami territory, and Lawson would need $ to manage to swing the 6 points to him.
It's unlikely, but unlike some districts, not wholly unwinnable.
AuH20 wrote: “if Price was losing right now then Renee Ellmers would be up by 10% over Ethridge.”
since Etheridge is polling under 40%, I’d say he is done. Incumbents under 50% almost always lose, under 40% done like dinner...
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/nc/north_carolina_2nd_district_ellmers_vs_etheridge-1462.html
AuH20 wrote: “if Price was losing right now then Renee Ellmers would be up by 10% over Ethridge.”
since Etheridge is polling under 40%, I’d say he is done. Incumbents under 50% almost always lose, under 40% done like dinner...
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/nc/north_carolina_2nd_district_ellmers_vs_etheridge-1462.html
I so want to believe this, but everyone is putting out polls that are going in all kinds of directions in this state. This is almost as unbelievable as the apparently new Dem polling outfit that has both Shuler and Kissell ahead 17% in their races, but this at least matches the national trend for Republicans.
Maybe Lawson is building on his 2008 run, when all things considered he did pretty well to hold Price to Obama’s %. He’s been running commercials to my understanding (jern, please correct me if I’m wrong), and is running a much sharper campaign than Randall is in the 13th. I don’t believe these results but I’ll keep my fingers crossed.
Hopefully this news will cause the Paulites to start dumping more money in this race like they did in 2008, when Lawson raised something like $700,000 IIRC.