A Facebook analysis of the Current state of the race in Delaware, a comparison with the Alaska trends, including analysis and projections:
As of September 6, 2010 at 8:50 a.m. EDT :
Christine O’Donnell: 6170
Mike Castle: 2250
Castle is stuck in neutral...only 21 fan additions in the four days I have been tracking it...2250 total.
In the same four days, COD has added 538. If COD maintains this pace she will have more than 7500 fans by election day.
By election day, if memory serves, Joe Miller had about 3900 fans. And Alaska is not that much smaller than Delaware.
Lisa Murkowski, who lost, had over 2300 fans, more than Castle does now.
My Point: The gap between Miller and Murkowski in Facebook fans was never as large as the one that now separates Christine O’Donnell and Mike Castle.
By election day, if present trends continue (and they show no sign of abating), Christine O’Donnell will have more than THREE TIME AS MANY FACEBOOK FANS AS MIKE CASTLE. (I understand that a victory in the Delaware GOP primary can be secured with as few as 19,000 votes.)
At no point before election day in Alaska did Joe Miller have even TWICE as many facebook fans as Lisa Murkowski. It ended up about 3950 for Miller and 2350 for Murkowski, a wide margin but nowhere near the blowout we are seeing right now in Delaware. I attribute this principally to the fact that Murkowski was nowhere near the leftist that Mike Castle is. And, as the saying goes, in elections issues matter, and this is especially true in primary elections. The issues calculus breaks heavily in O’Donnell’s favor, which is the principal reason for the late smear campaign.
Based upon the Facebook numbers and the current trend and on the ineffectiveness of Castle’s “smear/diversion” campaign (so named because the objective of the smear is principally to divert attention from his record), I am prepared to state that Christine O’Donnell will be the GOP nominee for Senate in Delaware. The margin will be wider than it was in Alaska two weeks ago.
The lesson to all future GOP primary candidates is that Democrat smear tactics (the politics of personal destruction spawned by Marx and perfected by Alinsky) are wholly ineffective in a GOP primary, if their principal aim is to camouflage liberal positions or divert attention from them. The Primary voters will ferret out the truth, and the candidate who is the purveyor of the slime will find his last state worse than his first.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2582487/posts?q=1&;page=68#68
While you didn't ask me I want to put in my two cents if that's OK....
This year is different. There is an anger at politics as usual and the voters have woken up to it.
I think a lot of people misread the Tea Party, Town Hall anger as pro-Republican but it is not. It is anti business-as-usual in Wash DC and business-as-usual is the first and foremost MO of the democrat.
Consider this: Why, when the democrats had their super-majority, couldn't they just vote straight up and down on all of Obama’s agenda? Why all the wheeling and dealing, the behind closed door promises, the pork barreling and flip-flops? This is what people are pissed off at! It isn't anti-democrat or pro-republican. To think so is a misread of what will happen in November. This anger will be not only directed against the democrats, but against RINOs, too.
To that end, Christine O'Donnell is the main benefactor in Delaware of that mood. This mood has clearly manifested itself in many primaries (although John McCain overcame it), and will be a huge factor in November.
Has the rank and file in Delaware woke to to what's going on in this particular race?It's "fog of war" time here. We really won't know until 9/14. I was feeling great yesterday morning. Then I called an old socially conservative but apolitical church friend from Dover in order to ask her to go to a Christine event in Dover that night. All she knew about the campaign was what she read in Castle's propaganda literature. I was shocked because these are the kind of folks that should have been in the bag.
Then last night I went to a volunteer meeting and I was blown away by the energy. If you know anyone in DE, please get on the phone! send them to the website and tell them to mark their calendars for 9/14. Cut & paste this post and send it out as an email. We can take back are country from these evil despots!
