>> You know, I always think it’s a TOUGH job to accurately reflect 130M likely voters - out of 312 million Americans. Your example given of 48 and 42, has a mean of 45 - putting both the high and the low within the MOE. <<
I know, that’s why I wrote, “Sure, with MOE of 3%, if you take enough polls, you’re bound to see a couple outlier days,”
It’s that he’s constantly slamming from the bottom of that range to the top and back to the bottom again, with about zero correlation to any other polls’ motion (such as Gallup, RCP meta-poll, etc.)
“It’s that he’s constantly slamming from the bottom of that range to the top and back to the bottom again, with about zero correlation to any other polls’ motion (such as Gallup...)”
Gallup polls adults and Rasmussen ‘likely voters’ - there’s a pretty huge difference.