Posted on 08/31/2010 5:14:10 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) was supposed to have an easy road to the Senate once Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) decided against challenging him in November's special election.
But the latest Rasmussen poll on the race shows Republican businessman John Raese within six points of the popular governor.
Manchin is running in a special election to fill out the remainder of the late Sen. Robert Byrd's (D) term.
The new poll gives Manchin 48 percent of the vote to Raese's 42. Another 4 percent prefer another candidate, and 7 percent remain undecided. The survey polled 500 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.5 percentage points.
...
Among the 34 percent of voters who just "somewhat approve" of the job Manchin is doing as governor, 64 percent strongly disapprove of the president's performance. Raese also holds a 45-40 edge among unaffiliated voters in the state.
The Raese campaign quickly trumpeted the results of the poll in an e-mail blast, while Manchin's camp dismissed Rasmussen as a "Republican pollster."
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
I’m not hoping he loses so much as acknowledging the reality that there are enough Tea Partiers in AZ ready to leave the ballot blank on the question of senator to possibly throw the seat to the Democrat.
The best scenario is a viable Tea Party candidate who could win running against the RINO and the Demo in November.
That would give AZ voters an alternative to 2 liberals.
My point here is a bit off topic, but only a bit.
Everyone focuses on picking up enoough seats for the Republicans to take control of the House and Senate. The House is a foregone conclusion, so consider the Senate. The point that everyone is missing is that the Dems made their big advances in 2006 and 2008. So to my way of thinking it really is NOT control after this election in 2010 that people should focus on. I am amazed at what, say, an 8-seat pickup in 2010 means for 2012 and 2014.
In my very restrained scenario, the Dems lose 65 seats in the House, 8 Senate seats, almost the entire country in terms of governor slots (which are key to redistricting) and Obama finds himself even less popular in Feb. 2011 than he is now. Even if the Dems can “limit” their losses to this, they will (and should be) in full panic mode, because at that point they face the likely prospect of utter annhilation in 2012 and 2014 when the great majority of Senate incumbents up for election will be Democrats; and where redistricting makes even more Dems in the House highly vulnerable.
Like everyone else, I’m hoping that the Republicans take the Senate and capture more than 65 seats in the House. But my point is that regardless, this election is shaping up to be a tsunami for the Republicans.
the leader of the party with the most members in its caucus automatically becomes majority leader
Well, the question remains. How does the “leader” of the majority party become it’s “leader?”
The caucus for each party votes. It is an internal vote, so if Manchin doesn’t vote for Reid and votes for, say, Ben Nelson instead, Reid would still win the vote and become Majority Leader if there are at least 50 Senators in the Democrat caucus (including independents Lieberman and Sanders; Biden breaks the tie). It would be far different if the vote was on the floor and Manchin was the 50th Democrat, where not voting for Reid would allow McCollum to win 50-49.
“This is a race conservatives should aggressively involve themselves in.”
I love all these unknowns and outsiders making good this year! Is this seat’s election on Nov. 2?
If we get 2 or even all 4 Reid ain’t got doodley-sqwat, his days of 60 easy votes for Cloture are finito...
The Obamatrain and the Lame Duck Session are then officially over..
+++++++++++++++++++
How huge is that? Hugh and Series, I tell ya...;)
“IMO, he’s not done a bad job as governor and this could be a very good thing. My fellow Mountaineers may not want to lose him to the Senate.”
Why is he a RAT? May have been different in the past but I don’t trust anyone in that party - even if they seem ‘well intentioned’ or seem to be doing a good job. Fact is, they are caucusing with a socialist party and they need to be asked and answer the question WHY? Mebbe he should switch parties?
Well said, and we need to keep our RINOs on a close tether til we can defeat them. Bringing a true Conservative renaissance will require that we govern well (as indeed, and amazingly, it looks like we may have a chance to do in 2012.)
“acknowledging the reality that there are enough Tea Partiers in AZ ready to leave the ballot blank on the question of senator”
As hard as it is to say and acknowledge - a 65% with us McCain, with all his warts and tendencies to betray us - is better than a 25% with us RAT. I mean we all KNOW John McCain at this point - he is no surprise to us.
“Like everyone else, I’m hoping that the Republicans take the Senate and capture more than 65 seats in the House. But my point is that regardless, this election is shaping up to be a tsunami for the Republicans.”
Well placed comments about 2012 and 2014. Not to get ahead of ourselves but Conservatives need to prove our value in helping to bring about an American revival. As we do that people may trust us with the reigns of the POTUS in 2012 - but the country is going to be ROUGH shape and none of this is going to be easy. We need strong leaders (Reagan-esque) who will take tough steps and help us take the tough medicine (eliminating debt and spending like Paul Akers great 10/10/10 plan in WA ST that never really caught on with the leftists out here).
We also need to DEAL with the idiotic fractional reserve money system based on debt based money - but we must get control and make government accountable first imho.
Along these lines will be enacting term limits for both the House and the Senate in the next 4 years or so. This will be like a civil war with the detestable political/ruling class - but one we MUST fight to reign in the fed gubmint.
Ain’t payback a b*tch? LOL! I love it. This has been a great year watching Dems. taking nose dives. About time the right-wingers woke up.Hope we’re not too late.
Really good article on RedState.com about your discussion of 2012, 2014 and ‘not blowing it!’
http://www.redstate.com/oz/2010/09/01/the-gop-could-easily-be-back-in-the-wilderness-in-2014/
McConnell.
McCollum is the FL Attorney General who is suing over Obamacare. Recently lost in the primary for FL Governor, however.
D’oh! Yes, Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is the Senate Minority Leader, while Bill McCollum (R-FL) is the AG (and former Congressman and Clinton impeachmwent manager) who was defeated by Rick Scott in the gubernatorial primary and is now refusing to endorse Scott.
governor slots (which are key to redistricting)
I think in most states the state legislature is the key to redistricting. Perhaps governors play a larger role in other states. I know in TN, the GOP wave this election will mean cementing substantial leads in the state legislature. After redistricting, we should pick up a seat or two - at least - in the US House.
You will know it has been a total A+ night if Alabama state legislature goes GOP. That is one of the most conservative states but the Dems have somehow been able to retain majorities, I think, for the last 20 years when you wouldn't think they would. Much is due to the power of being able to draw the districts.
Now we have to ask the question: Will it be a 10-seat pick-up, or 11?I left one off: IL.
It's going to be an 11 or 12 seat pick-up.
AR, IN, ND, NV, CO, PA, WA, CA, DE, WI, CT, WV
Now we have to ask the question: Will it be a 10-seat pick-up, or 11?I left one off: IL.
It's going to be an 11 or 12 seat pick-up.
AR, IN, ND, NV, CO, PA, WA, CA, DE, WI, CT, WV
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