Posted on 08/30/2010 2:00:42 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush
I think it is, in reality, about an 8 point spread. We shall see. Grab the popcorn.
We’re going to crush them...
They need crushing ...
LLS
Gallup has it as a record-breaking 10 point spread: 51-41.
Yeah, every few weeks Ras shows a sample where the O has only a -12 approval/disapproval rating. This is one of those. The O has done nothing to increase his popularity in the last couple of weeks, so I think the real number next week will be around 8-10 points. We will see.
I believe you are correct. Take out all the statisical “noise” and it’s somewhere between 6-8% which translates into 50-70 seats for the Pubs.
When the ‘94 wave happened. We were dead even.
It’s all about turn out. And intensity.
This will be a tsunami no matter the spread.
After the mess we’re in I can’t believe almost 40% still think the Democrats are good for the country. What is it going to take to realize this stuff doesn’t work?
I, for one, quite look forward to that.
LLS
I am too disgusted watching history in partisan politics repeating itself over and over...right left right left...democrat republican democrat republican to pass any popcorn or get excited.
Yes, Obama is beyond dangerous but if any republican calls for Obama to be accounted for in any way they will be called a racist.
Even if the GOP wrote up a 1 page payroll tax holiday (send Americans their money back that the IRS stole that dismantles the U.N./IRS and all big gov.) Obama will veto it and laugh.
This MAY take the car keys away from Obama of his highway to hell in spending but I fear Obama will use the same Alinsky tactics and smear with the mainstream media to use a slim Jim and break back into the car and DRIVE us to hell on a handcart with the U.N./global government suspending any one/thing to run against Obama..
Obama is doing everything he can to lose the House and barely keep the Senate. That's his only chance to get reelected in 2012, so he can blame the Congress Republicans for all the problems and take credit for whatever positives will transpire by then.
That's his replay of the Clinton scenario of 1994-1996. He has a lot of Clinonistas in his cabinet and advisers that advise him on this strategy.
Yeah but Obama cannot pull off a move to the center like Clinton did. He is washed up and unbelievable...
He is not even trying to steer right/center and pull a Clinton. See my last post to explain why.
The GOP doesn’t seem able to surmount the 50% level, or even get near it.
1. Clintons never really moved to the center, they were only portrayed as moderating and moving to the center by the "adult supervision" of David Gergen apparatus post-1994 revolution. "The era of big government is over" was an ovbious fakeout.
2. Obama will have no chance to move forward with his agenda, only portrayed as a roadblock stopping "radical extremist right-wing agenda" of Republican Congress... i.e., the theme and PR will be that of "moderate triangulation," and with weak and incompetent GOP leadership and PR efforts it just might succeed... again.
3. The Clinton scenario is really his best chance to blame someone else for the problems (blaming Bush has gotten stale and is fast running out of steam) and to get reelected - Republican House is his best choice to accomplish that. The Dems might well go along with this battlefield plan, as the Big Prize is the entrenchment and expansion of radical liberal judiciary appointments in the next term, if Obama wins. Dems understand the value of the sacrifices to be made in the House, if it helps keeping Obama as President for another term. Keeping (even small) majority in the Senate has value for judicial appointments confirmations.
Losing House - instead of keeping a small but ineffective and despised token majority - is a gambit that has the best chance for Dems to succeed in getting through their bigger agenda in the next 6-years plan.
Not to dissuade or confirm your suspicions, but you might be interested in recent interview with Rasmussen in WSJ:
America's Insurgent Pollster: Understanding the tea party is essential to predicting what the country's political scene will look like. - WSJ (free), 2010 August 21, by John Fund
"Americans don't want to be governed from the left or the right," Scott Rasmussen tells the American Legislative Exchange Council, a conference of 1,500 conservative and moderate legislators. "They want, like the Founding Fathers, to largely govern themselves with Washington in a supporting — but not dominant — role. The tea party movement is today's updated expression of that sentiment."
Thanks to the shifting tectonic plates of American society, polls have come to dominate our politics as never before, and Mr. Rasmussen is today's leading insurgent pollster. A co-founder of the sports network ESPN as a young man, now, at age 54, he's a key player in the contact sport of politics. His firm, Rasmussen Reports, has replaced live questioners with automated dialers so it can inexpensively survey a large sample of Americans every night about their confidence in the economy and their approval of President Obama. Key Senate and governor's races are polled every two weeks. Some traditional pollsters argue otherwise, but time has shown that automated telephone technology delivers results that are just as accurate as conventional methods (as well as being far less costly). Mr. Rasmussen correctly predicted the 2004 and 2008 presidential races within a percentage point. In 2009, Mickey Kaus of Slate.com noted that Mr. Rasmussen's final poll in the New Jersey governor's race was "pretty damn accurate. Polls using conventional human operators tended to show [Democrat Jon] Corzine ahead. They were wrong." ..... Mr. Rasmussen has a partial answer for Mr. Emanuel's question, and it lies in a significant division among the American public that he has tracked for the past few years—a division between what he calls the Mainstream Public and the Political Class. [what Rush Limbaugh calls the Ruling Class - comment mine] To figure out where people are, he asks three questions: Whose judgment do you trust more: that of the American people or America's political leaders? Has the federal government become its own special interest group? Do government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors? Those who identify with the government on two or more questions are defined as the political class. ..... His recent polls show huge gaps between the two groups. While 67% of the political class believes the U.S. is moving in the right direction, a full 84% of mainstream voters believe the nation is moving in the wrong one. The political class overwhelmingly supported the bailouts of the financial and auto industries, the health-care bill, and the Justice Department's decision to sue Arizona over its new immigration law. Those in the mainstream public just as intensely opposed those moves. ..... You can tell it's a volatile political year when a balding, middle-aged pollster gets a standing ovation from hundreds of state legislators after delivering the news that only 23% of the people in this country believe today's federal government has the consent of the governed.
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