Posted on 08/26/2010 10:04:10 PM PDT by supremedoctrine
I need some information as to just what the early AP "test polls" mean, which have just started making the rounds in the last few days. We have a candidate in a NY Congressional district who glommed onto the first issuance of these numbers and is sending out emails claiming he's "ahead" in the polls. It looks like nearly everybody on the list of primary matchups is either at 55% or 45%. HOW do they get these numbers? Have they been doing actual small samplings by phone, of say, 100 or so people in each precinct, and then projecting the raw numbers into the hundreds of thousands of 'votes cast', or are they just beginning with a random 'starting point' based on "whatever" and will they then adjust twice a week when they do some "real" polling? I seem to remember reading something about a lot of consternation caused by issuing numbers a year or two ago, with a lot of people getting freaked out because they made no sense. An explanation was then forthcoming, and their minds were put at rest. It rings a bell when I think of these AP "test polls". Anyone have any info on this. Are they to be taken seriously at all, even a little less than 3 weeks from this Primary?
NONE,they mean zip!Polls are very misleading.
this much be a Vanity post. Also, you do not say who the candidate is and what primary race.
BTT
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