Posted on 08/26/2010 2:14:39 PM PDT by Rufus2007
It is a curious phenomenon - the way the media have handled the economy since President Barack Obama has taken office. Generally the coverage has been on the optimistic side over the last 18 months. But could this blind optimism come back to haunt people that trade on economic metrics?
According to CNBC "Mad Money" host Jim Cramer, it will and in a big way on Aug. 27, when the new gross domestic product numbers are released. On CNBC's Aug. 26 broadcast of "Street Signs," Cramer predicted dismal numbers during his "Stop Trading" segment, which has been contrary to the way the market reacted.
"Look, I'm going to give you my forecast right now - I think we're going to get 0.5 percent GDP, OK?" Cramer said. "But, let's say we get 0.5 percent GDP. Everyone's going to say it's horrible. We're going to go track down economists, Nobel winners who think it's a double dip. And it'll be like shocker - 0.5 percent. And I'm telling you it's going to be 0.5 percent. It's like the housing number. On my show I said it's going to be declined 50 percent. We get 30 percent. It was like shocker. Whoever is making these estimates is just so wrong because you know, you piece these pieces together on a daily basis like I do and come up with something between zero and 1 percent growth."
...more (w/video)...
(Excerpt) Read more at newsbusters.org ...
I just got off the horn with Paul Krugman and he said everything will be fine. So that means it’s going to be a disaster.
cramer voted for obummer.
he was right about the housing (sorta)
down 50% was a stretch- but down 30% was pretty damn bad
Cramer - You’re Fired! (Of course MSNBC may have a major part of that statement...heh).
I've read enough.
And I'm telling you, if it's 0.5, it will be later revised downward to negative numbers.
I’m not sure Cramer has been right about much of anything since the decline. Now when things were going smoothly, he was basically right. Unfortunately, that is not why people should be listening to him - he should be right most of all when the market is declining...and NOT toeing the NBC line...
Considering how accurate he was on Bear-Stearns and several occasions since, a large jump is more likely.
Come on guys, we're having shrimp!
0.5%? Since the fed is spending trillions, I would say that is a negative 9%.
Not the brightest tool. The two housing figures combined,existing and new,came out to roughly 4.1mm vs a total prediction of 4.98mm. Call it just shy of a 20% miss. Projection for GDP is 1.4$ so either 1.1 or 1.2% would be the equivalent of the miss in housing. The number has been revised lower although not since the housing miss to my knowledge.
You notice how later (lower) revisions never seem to make the news?
He made a pretty bold and accurate call to get out of the market early in the crash. He took a lot of head for that good call at the time (even here). That said, even broken clocks are right twice a day.
I’m thinking a lot of the big initial decline days have been on Fridays this year. Sounds like it’s shaping up to be the same outcome tomorrow. Is it a pattern? I’ll see if my theory holds water by this time tomorrow.
Like someone said if you listen to Cramer you will be a millionaire but you have to have started with a pile of millions.
Crammer is a huge FADE.
Ramp a Romma tmo so the shorts get blown to smithereens (again),
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