Posted on 08/26/2010 8:07:49 AM PDT by Haiku Guy
I've never seen so many House seats in play in one party. I'm tracking four of the pundits who rate House races -- Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and CQ.
Between the four an incredible 103 Democratic seats are in play. I think they have missed maybe 3 to 5 seats, but they may list them sooner or later.
24 seats are very slightly to strongly leaning Republican.
16 are pure toss ups to very slightly tilting Democratic.
25 are leaning Democratic
That means an incredible 65 seats are very seriously in play.
Another 38 seats are rated likely Democratic but at least one of the four, and two thirds of the cases two or more of the pundits.
Here is the list of the seats most likely to switch, based on the pundit average. In the event of a tie, my computer rating of the seat breaks the tie.
Rank 2010 Incumbent District GOP Candidate
1 Gordon TN6 Dianne Black
2 Melancon LA3 TBD
3 Snyder AR2 Tim Griffin
4 Massa NY29 Tom Reed (likely)
5 Kratovil MD1 TBD
6 Kilroy OH15 Steve Stivers
7 Teague NM2 Steve Pearce
8 Driehaus OH1 Steve Chabot
9 Moore, D. KS3 Kevin Yoder
10 Ellsworth IN8 Larry Bucshon
11 Markey CO4 Cory Gardner
12 Shea-Porter NH1 TBD
13 Hodes NH2 TBD
14 Pomeroy NDAL Richard Berg
15 Tanner TN8 Stephen Fincher
16 Kosmas FL24 TBD
17 Childers MS1 Alan Nunnelee
18 Titus NV3 Joe Heck
19 Perriello VA5 Robert Hurt
20 Nye VA2 Scott Rigell
21 Grayson FL8 TBD
22 Stupak MI1 Dan Benishek
23 Arcuri NY24 Richard Hanna
24 Kanjorski PA11 Lou Barletta
25 Mollohan WV1 David McKinley
26 Schauer MI7 Tim Walberg
27 Baird WA3 TBD
28 Sestak PA7 Pat Meehan
29 Foster IL14 Randy Hultgren
30 Edwards, C. TX17 Bill Flores
31 Berry AR1 Rick Crawford
32 Bright AL2 Martha Roby
33 Hill IN9 Todd Young
34 Minnick ID1 Raul Labrador
35 Spratt SC5 Mick Mulvaney
36 Dahlkemper PA3 Mike Kelly
37 Obey WI7 Sean Duffy (likely)
38 Kissell NC8 Harold Johnson
39 Herseth Sandlin SDAL Kristi Noem
40 Boyd FL2 TBD
41 Kirkpatrick AZ1 TBD
42 Boccieri OH16 Jim Renacci
43 Giffords AZ8 TBD
44 Halvorson IL11 Adam Kinzinger
45 McNerney CA11 David Harmer
46 Hall, J. NY19 Nan Hayworth (likely)
47 Adler NJ3 Jon Runyon
48 Murphy, P. PA8 Michael Fitzpatrick
49 Boucher VA9 Morgan Griffith
50 Space OH18 Bob Gibbs
51 Donnelly IN2 Jackie Walorski Swihart
52 Mitchell AZ5 TBD
53 Heinrich NM1 Johnathan L. Barela
54 Boswell IA3 Brad Zaun
55 Owens NY23 TBD
56 Bishop NY1 TBD
57 Critz PA12 Tim Burns
58 Delahunt MA10 TBD
59 Skelton MO4 Vicky Hartzler
60 Carney PA10 Thomas Marino
61 Connolly VA11 Keith Fimian
62 Kagen WI8 TBD
63 Salazar CO3 Scott Tipton
64 Murphy NY20 Chris Gibson
65 Sutton OH13 Tom Ganley
66 Marshall GA8 Austin Scott
67 Chandler KY6 Andy Barr
68 McMahon NY13 TBD
69 Schrader OR5 Scott Bruun
70 Klein FL22 Allen West (likely)
71 Rodriguez, C. TX23 Quico Canseco
72 Peters MI9 Rocky Raczkowski
73 Shuler NC11 Jeff Miller
74 Holden PA17 Dave Argall
75 Altmire PA4 Keith Rothfus
76 Murphy, C. CT5 Sam Caliguri
77 Kind WI3 TBD
78 Pallone Jr. NJ6 Anna Little
79 Davis, L. TN4 Scott DesJarlais
80 Himes CT4 Dan Debicella
81 Walz MN1 Randy Demmer
82 Maffei NY25 Ann Marie Buerkle
83 Sanchez, Loretta CA47 Van Tran
84 Rahall WV3 Elliot "Spike" Maynard
85 Bean IL8 Joe Walsh
86 Etheridge NC2 Renee Ellmers
87 Cardoza CA18 Michael Berryhill
88 Yarmuth KY3 Todd Lally
89 Larsen WA2 John Koster
90 Loebsack IA2 Marianette Miller-Meeks
91 Barrow GA12 Ray McKinney
92 Matheson UT2 Morgan Philpot
93 Ross AR4 Beth Anne Rankin
94 McIntyre NC7 Ilario Pantano
95 Wilson, C. OH6 Bill Johnson
96 Bishop, S. GA2 Mike Keown
97 Perlmutter CO7 Ryan Frazier
98 Hare IL17 Bobby Schilling
99 Costa CA20 Andy Vidak
100 Braley IA1 Benjamin Lange
101 Holt NJ12 Scott Sipprelle 102 Wu OR1 Rob Cornilles
103 Carnahan MO3 Ed Martin
Check out Anna Little in NJ-6 or Scott Sipprelle in NJ-12.
Both are running as full-bore, unapologetic Conservatives. And this is in New Freepin' Jersey!
OOPS, sorry, just meant to comment on seats in play, and hit the last reply instead of the first.
35 Spratt SC5 Mick Mulvaney
I think Spratt is toast. Crispy on both sides. I have to take care of some personal stuff this weekend but I WILL be doing my part for Mulvaney soon.
Hey - Something occurs to me. Do you think we could ping the SC ping list with Mulvaney’s fund raising info? I’m betting a bit of money, even if it was just a little bit from each person, would go a long way.
Add Kucinich to the list. He’s toast!
“keep working”? painter, you slave-driver.
I’m heading on a vacation. Play some golf. Eat some shrimp. Then, play some golf, again.
"We love your methodology at KeyHouseRaces.com since we have been using exactly this method since April or so to project the House seats in play for 2010. We use your 4 "experts" plus Election Projection and Real Clear Politics. We are a little more conservative with our projected pickups but the scheme is basically the same. You can see our ranking of the races including the Republican seats in play at KeyHouseRaces.com . We are currently showing 81 Dem seats plus 12 Republican seats in play. That number is expected to grow in the next two months."
See my post #46 above.
Yet another add for Key House Races.
If I were to write Club For Growth, I might say,
“Please ignore Key House Races. Their thinking is more muddled than their statistics. Adding two more polls, Election Projection and Real Clear Politics, will make their “predictions” worse if those polls are worse than those you have used and it necessarily means that they aren’t doing “exactly” what you have done.
Also, thank you for being limited in your conclusions. By saying “these races are in play” you make it clear that YOU yourselves aren’t predicting anything and you are much more self effacing and credible.”
You should go ahead. Please post their reply if you get one.
Check out Anna Little in NJ-6 or Scott Sipprelle in NJ-12.
Both are running as full-bore, unapologetic Conservatives. And this is in New Freepin’ Jersey!
I believe you. And there are Republicans who are running as unapologetic, unrepentant and unreconstructed Conservatives — here and there. MOST, however, are on “cruise control,” trying to ride the wave of aniti-Obama sentiment and anti-democrat anger. That’s alright as far as it goes — but with SO many RINO’s in the Republican party, that’s NOT VERY FREAKIN’ FAR.
The Conservatives who win, even if Republicans do take the House or BOTH House and Senate back, will be mightily challenged by the RINO’s, because the impulse of the RINO’s will be COMPROMISE — “go along to get along,” work WITH Obama. The Conservatives will HAVE to say NO, AND present an ALTERNATIVE AGENDA loud and clear.
From what I’ve seen, that’s next to impossible. The MSM will stonewall and shut out all news of a Conservative alternative agenda, the RINO’s will sell them down the river in a heartbeat (McCain, Grahamnesty, Collins, Snowe — please...) Even Boehner would be likelier to cooperate with Pelosi than with some of the more staunch Conservatives if it came down to REAL Constitutional issues or cutting spending issues.
Thankfully, we have an alternative media that is now breaking thru — people are paying attention to various sources, from FoxNews to Rush to Beck to Hannity, to Savage and Reagan and Valentine and dozens of others. Not to mention the internet — FR and hundreds of forums and blogs. With the Tea Party and 9/12 groups, we are just beginning to be able to compete with the machines the Left has built for decades. But it won’t come easily. That’s why I don’t think we’ll win Congress this time — at least not both houses. And it will get uglier before we can purge out the dross and reset the system as the Founders meant it to be.
“SC05 — John Spratt’s seat ain’t happening.”
What makes you think that?
Enough with the whining! On you feet, soldier!
Things are going to be a heckuva a lot better after a hundred Donks are kicked to the curb. Will we still have RINOs? Of course we will. But a few of those were primaried out, as well. Both Anna Little and Scott Sipprelle had to beat RINOs in their primaries, and they did. In New Jersey, RINO Capital of the World.
So accept good news with good cheer. You get to where you want to go by taking steps in that direction.
“Not to mention the internet — FR and hundreds of forums and blogs.”
The number is in the tens of thousands. Patriots have a strong ground game as compared to the previous election cycles. I urge you, and all conservatives, to start a blog or web site and start exposing these leftists, especially in your local elections. Leftists need to be swept out everywhere, including your neighborhood.
“SC05 — John Spratt’s seat ain’t happening.”
What makes you think that?
Spratt’s had that seat for how many years? It’s gerrymandered FOR him to win it. he OWN’s the district. you couldn’t BLAST him out of his Washington office with a stick of dynamite. The voting machines down there only have one lever that WORKS — the “Spratt” lever. You name it, there’s the reason that Spratt will not lose.
“SC05 — John Spratt’s seat ain’t happening.”
What makes you think that?
Spratt’s had that seat for how many years? It’s gerrymandered FOR him to win it. he OWN’s the district. you couldn’t BLAST him out of his Washington office with a stick of dynamite. The voting machines down there only have one lever that WORKS — the “Spratt” lever. You name it, there’s the reason that Spratt will not lose.
“SC05 — John Spratt’s seat ain’t happening.”
What makes you think that?
Spratt’s had that seat for how many years? It’s gerrymandered FOR him to win it. he OWN’s the district. you couldn’t BLAST him out of his Washington office with a stick of dynamite. The voting machines down there only have one lever that WORKS — the “Spratt” lever. You name it, there’s the reason that Spratt will not lose.
Make em fight everywhere ping.
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