Posted on 08/24/2010 10:25:36 PM PDT by Steelers6
Indeed. On the political spectrum she's right of the Maine twins, but to the left of a moderate (a real moderate, not an MSM defined "moderate") like Norm Coleman or Mike Dewine. She is WAY left of John McCain and Lindsey Graham, no matter how many freepers insist the latter two are worse. I think even many of the freepers who opposed Murkowski in this primary don't realize how significant this is. It appears to be the first time since 1980 that an entrenched incumbent RINO (and I don't count seatwarmers like Sheila Frahm) has been defeated for re-nomination.
I wish this was the beginning of a trend, but I do fear that if Chafee clones like Kirk & Castle get in, we'll never be rid of them.
Another thing, what happened to the staunch, diehard "Murkowski is a good Republican and a rising star" defenders on FR? They've all but disappeared after Miller got in the race.
>> Palin was key in both races. She helped us in one and hurt us in other. Though I’m not sure McPain would have lost even with her opposition. <<
I could tell the mainstream media was just salavating at the thought of writing headlines like "No Miller Time: Embarrassing loss for Palin in her home state" and "Tea Party Impotent? Loses Key Races in AZ and AK" so I'm really savoring this one. They seem to be strangely silent about it. The MoveOn.org crowd smirking about the "Palin kiss of death" after Doug Hoffman lost have shut up for good (perhaps they should change the articles to read "Obama kiss of death" to be accurate)
Palin's endorsements, for good or ill, have been very effective this election cycle. It hasn't made the difference in all races, but it certainly played a big factor in the outcome. That's helped us in several big upsets, and also saddled us with some lousy Republicans like Fiorina and McMahon. Mixed bag.
Richard Nixon has a similar comeback from '64-'62, having been declared a national joke and politically dead in 1962. Out of office, he put his weight behind other Republicans and iniatives around the country, and proved to be alarmingly effective, paving the way to his 1968 presidential nomination.
I'm still not convinced Palin is electable, but she is proving to be a forminable presence in the GOP. The problem is the mainstream media has convinced non-Republicans that she's a lunatic airhead. But given how fast Obama's fortunes have fallen, it's possible independents would flock to her just to defeat him.
If I understand your question correctly, no, a Miller win in the general election wouldn't be anything unprecedented. I posted, at post 264, the names of 14 incumbent Senators who lost primary races since 1970. Of the 14 winners in those races, at least six (maybe more; I haven't researched them all) went on to win the general election.
Lloyd Bentsen defeated incumbent Senator Ralph Yarborough in the 1970 Texas Dem primary, and went on to win the general election -- over George H. W. Bush.
Dale Bumpers defeated incumbent Senator J. William Fulbright in the 1974 Arkansas Dem primary, and went on to win the general election.
Others who ousted incumbents in primaries and went on to win in the general election include John Glenn (D-OH, 1974); Al D'Amato (R-NY, 1980); Carol Moseley-Braun (D-IL, 1992); and John E. Sununu (R-NH, 2002).
While Miller's apparent primary win, and his likely general election win, are impressive, they are by no means unique.
There may still be a possibility that Murkowski will seek to run in November as an independent write-in candidate, or on a third-party ticket. I think this is unlikely, due to the lateness of the primary, and to complications arising from Alaska's "sore loser law," but it's something to keep an eye on.
How close does it have to be before the Murky One is entitled to a recount and we can start to call her Al?
So the first since Sununu then. Thanks for taking the time to research that. I was curious.
Almost complete - only 2 precincts haven’t reported
US SENATOR (R) REP
Total Number of Precincts 438
Precincts Reporting 436 99.5 %
Miller, Joe REP 46620 50.81%
Murkowski, Lisa REP 45128 49.19%
Its my understanding that if the spread is 1% there is an auto recount...
Lead was cut by close to 500 votes. This is going to be a long battle.
Thanks.
Last 2 precincts came in. Miller is holding a 1600 vote lead.
This is what Joe just tweeted
50.90 vs. 49.10% & 100% of precincts reporting
So does that mean its over..He won? I thought the absentee ballots were not supposed to be counted til the 31st
If that is true, would they lean towards Miller?
Or would some of these absentee ballots just be folks wishing to vote ahead of time.
Hopefully, this will be over before Labor Day...
I don’t honestly know. I could pull it out of my butt and give you an answer, but all I know is that Murkowksi has an uphill climb, and not an insignificant one either. 1500 votes is not an easy margin to overcome with only 7500 votes left.
Her goal will be to trigger auto recount, which is a lesser hurdle, but still not an easy one.
If you forced me to answer, here’s the problem.
1, absentees are usually cast before the election, when Murkowski’s support was higher.
2, absentees are also cast by those who are less likely to come out to the polling booth, ie, democrats. However, this is not much a factor as this is a republican primary.
3, there is the military factor which is disproportionately strong in AK. There’s also the rural factor, which has shown to be neutral or in Miller’s favour, of electors for which it is difficult for them to get out to the polls.
I’d say it’s about 10 percent in Murkowski’s favour, meaning an increase of about 750. I’d put even money on this going to recount with Miller at the top end of the range, with about a 1 percent lead and 800 votes.
mark
I wonder if Murkowski will try Gore's tactic from Florida in 2000, where he tried to disqualify military absentee ballots mailed from a combat zone, because they had no postmark.
I guess they may then have a recount -- if it is less than 1% apart in the vote count.
Personally, I am hoping that folks in the Armed Forces voted heavily for Miller, but that may be too optimistic.
I can always be an optimist only to be proved wrong later...
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