Posted on 08/07/2010 1:33:48 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
This weeks news:
We have primary winners in KS-03, MI-07, MI-09, MO-04, TN-04, TN-06 and TN-08. Unfortunately we do not yet have a Republican winner in MI-01 where the vote count favors Benishek over Allen by between 1 vote and 12 depending on whom you ask. Not good news when the focus needs to be on defeating Gary McDowell and taking back the Stupak seat for the Pubbies.
The Master List has been updated to include all the winners with the exception of the MI-01 Republican. The "Race at a Glance" entries on the Home Page have also been updated to include the KS, MI, MO and TN districts.
There were just two changes to the Experts Ratings this week - one from Election Projection and one from RCP. Both were favorable to the Republicans.
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Those changes moved our index to -.301 from last weeks -.306. A small movement but in the right direction.
Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page.
And you can always find the KHR Master List HERE and the 'Races at a Glance' on the KHR Home Page
Just a reminder: Here is the schedule for the remaining August Primaries:
August 10: Colorado, Connecticut, Minnesota and a Georgia Runoff if necessary
August 17: Washington and Wyoming
August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Vermont
August 28: Louisiana
Since it has been a relatively slow week in terms of "Expert" updates we thought it would be worth taking a look at the polls that we have found for the races on the Master List. We are now tracking polls for all the districts that have completed their primaries plus a few others where the candidates are known. We post the most recent 3 polls in the "Races a a Glance" entries plus we post the most recent poll in a simple table format HERE . Below is an image of that table showing the most recent polls. Blank inputs simply means the primary elections have not been held or we can't find a poll. Some of the polls are several months old and some are very up to date - a mixed bag.
Skelton and Sandelin are toast...MO don’t like Ike any more...it’s amazing..to see the number of seats in OH and PA that are in play..
A NEW DAY IS DAWNING Under no circumstances should Pubbies or the RNC be allowed to hijack the tea party movement. Tea partiers----who control about 50 million votes---say the worse thing you can call them is "Republicans."
PASS THE WORD It's in our hands to dictate the terms by which we support candidates.
HOLD CANDIDATES' FEET TO THE FIRE These are the terms under which we conservatives permit candidates to earn our support:
(1) Your conservative group holds an official position within the campaign;
(2) Your group's issue is affirmed in the candidate's platform;
(3) Your group is in attendance at all campaign strategy meetings;
(4) Your group holds a paid job in the campaign;
(5) Your group holds a paid position in the winning candidate's elective office.
(6) The candidate must renounce RINOS and pukeneos before he/she gets conservative endorsement.
====================================
HOW TO HANDLE THE RNC
When RNC fundraisers call or write, simply reply: "In lieu of a contribution, a donation in your name is being sent to the 9/12 Movement, Tea Party, Right to Life Committee, 2nd Amendment Committee, Sara Palin Election Committee, etc."
Kind of an oversample is TX-17 or what? :oP
We actually seated a state rep here in Michigan’s 65th district. It was a race to temporarily fill the seat left vaccant by the death of Democrat Mike Simpson.
Small businessman Mike Shirkey (R) won the seat with 6000 votes over former Jackson county commissioner Janet Rochefort (D) with 2500 votes. Shirkey also won the GOP nomination for the election in November.
Instate races are just as important as the races for national office if not more so. I hope people in their own states will take a long hard look at their local representation.
Very slick website, particularly the videos. Thanks for the heads up.
Liz, this is a winner...
Good stuff, ken5050. Thanks for posting it.
If you want to see perhaps the ultimate gerrymander, take a look at the AZ-2 boundaries...
shouldn’t the Heath Schuler (NC-11) be included?
I get calls all the time..usually seems to be enthusiatis young ladies doing the calling. I usually stop them, gently, as their start their spiel..I’m always very polite and courteous with them, thanking them for their efforts, but tell them that after the messes the RNC has made with various primaries, I won’t give to the committees any more, but rather donate directly to the candidates I choose to support. They usually sigh..I can only imagine how many times they hear that each day...We’ve heard reports recently that the Dems have a $$$ advantage...but that may be at the national, and not the local levels...GOP enthusiasm is way up, and that translates into $$$ and volunteers..
Thanks for the update. I am extatic to see Betty Sutton - OH is behind Ganley in my district. She was supposedly a “shoe-in” and Ganleys chances were calculated between slim and none. I guess the dems were wrong on that one (and that’s just the beginning)!
Seriously? Because the polls I've seen say that the Tea Parties are largely made up of registered Republicans.
Unless, of course, you're talking about the fake Tea Parties that are being started by Democrats to try to dilute the conservative vote.
Methinks you're a troll, trying to split conservatives by spreading around bilious nonsense such as this.
N-i-c-e going.
I did run a new simulation model last night that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment when there is one. The result is what I expected, an additional 4 seat pick-up for Republicans.
The results of 32,000 simulated elections using the polling data where it exists shows an expected 213.94 seats, with a 16.06% probability of retaking the House.
I'll run the full simulation when I get a chance over the weekend.
-PJ
The black Conservative GOP business woman Charlotte Bergmann http://www.bergmannforcongress.com/ won the US 9th District primary (61%) to go up against the obama butt kisser incumbent steve cohen. Who is already dissing her by refusing to debate. Says she doesn’t think like an African American...duh she is an AMERICAN who happens to be black.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2566322/posts
Liz - since 1997-12-23
Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus - since 2007-02-03
It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve had a deep cover troll...
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