Posted on 08/02/2010 7:45:04 AM PDT by Sub-Driver
Tropical Depression FOUR Public Advisory Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
000 WTNT34 KNHC 021435 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 41.1W ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents
IMO, TD/TS/Hurricane projection models are pretty worthless until the storm is within 72 hours of landfall. Within 72 hours, they get pretty good.
So true.
Certainly has a chance to be one of those storms that just recurves out to sea.
Very possible. There was a strong High over the south central US but I’ve not looked lately. If it stays there or even moves eastward a bit it will tend to force it off the US I believe.
My sense is they are relying too much on models for this depression. IMO, it will go farther west unless it becomes a strong storm and that is not in the cards at least over the next 5 days.
History shows that storms forming in receding el nino years tend to go north at this time of the season and I suspect that is being factored into the NHC analysis. However, these is quite a ridge to the north and whether it builds farther west or not is critical regarding the future path.
So, as someone else said terser than I, models this early are not worth much..keep an eye on it till it gets to the 60-65 W lat, then one should be better to estimate an eventual path. 4me, out to sea would be a winner!
Unfortunately looks like a storm for the fish. We could use the rain here in SE Virginia. I could also use some home renovations.
Let’s hope so.
Let the weather channel-induced histeria begin...yay for ratings bump!
Need to see what they predict the Bermuda High will do over this timeframe.
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