Posted on 08/01/2010 11:56:30 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
This weeks news: We've added two more vulnerable Democrats to our Master List: Ben Chandler in KY-06 and Kurt Schrader in OR-05. Both of these races look competitive to us and our "Experts".
We've made a major change to the Home Page at KHR with the addition of our "The Races at a Glance" summaries of the Districts on the Master List. These summaries include photos of the Republican and Democrat candidates, all the polling information that we can find, funding totals for the Dem and the Republican candidates, links to the Republican candidate's campaign website, links to the "Spotlight" articles with detailed information about the District and the Republican candidate and the current averaged Expert Rating and the 3-year Presidential Polling data for the district.
We will be updating all of this data at least weekly. Currently the "At a Glance" entries are limited to those races where the primaries have been completed plus a few where we are confident on who will be on the ticket in November.
You can see a "thumbnail" of the new format below.
There were very few changes to the Experts Ratings this week - three from Election Projection and one from RCP. All 4 were favorable to the Republicans.
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Those changes moved our index to -.306 from last weeks -.288. That looks bad but it's not. The 4 ratings changes moved the index in the Republicans favor. But this was outweighed by the addition of KY-06 and OR-05 to our list. Since we are willing to add races to the Master List when we and our "Experts" sense a trend these new additions are gong to come on to the list as either LIKELY D or LEANS D. Either of those categories are more favorable to the Dems then the average of our list so that bumps the "Index" slightly in the Dem direction. Not to fear - we have identified TWO MORE VULNERABLE DEMS and that's the good news.
Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page.
It is worth noting that we made a format change to the Expert's Page with the addition of columns for INCUMBENT NAME and INCUMBENT PARTY.
Just a reminder: Here is the full schedule for August Primaries:
August 3: Kansas, Michigan and Missouri
August 5: Tennessee
August 10: Colorado, Connecticut, Minnesota and a Georgia Runoff if necessary
August 17: Washington and Wyoming
August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Vermont
August 28: Louisiana
| District | Dem Primary Winner | Incumbent or Open |
Republican Incumbent or Challengers | ALL | Primary | Experts | District | ||||||
| Or Incumbent | Main Challenger | Challenger | Challenger | ||||||||||
| AL | 2 | Bobby Bright | Incumbent D | Martha Roby | AL | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | AL | 2 | ||||
| AR | 1 | Chad Causey | Open D | Rick Crawford | AR | 18-May | Toss-Up | AR | 1 | ||||
| AR | 2 | Joyce Elliott | Open D | Tim Griffin | AR | 18-May | Leans R | AR | 2 | ||||
| AZ | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | Incumbent D | Rusty Bowers | Bradley Beauchamp | Paul Gosar | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 1 | ||
| AZ | 5 | Harold Mitchell | Incumbent D | David Schweikert | Susan Bitter Smith | Dr. Chris Salvino | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 5 | ||
| AZ | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | Incumbent D | Jonathan Paton | Jesse Kelly | Brian Miller | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 8 | ||
| CA | 3 | Ami Bera | Incumbent R | Dan Lungren | CA | 8-Jun | Leans R | CA | 3 | ||||
| CA | 11 | Jerry McNerney | Incumbent D | David Harmer | CA | 8-Jun | Leans D | CA | 11 | ||||
| CA | 47 | Loretta Sanchez | Incumbent D | Van Tran | CA | 8-Jun | Likely D | CA | 47 | ||||
| CO | 3 | John Salazar | Incumbent D | Scott Tipton | Bob McConnell | CO | 10-Aug | Leans D | CO | 3 | |||
| CO | 4 | Betsy Markey | Incumbent D | Cory Gardner | Tom Lucero | Dean Madere | CO | 10-Aug | Leans R | CO | 4 | ||
| CT | 4 | Jim Himes | Incumbent D | Dan Debicella | Robert Merkle | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 4 | |||
| CT | 5 | Christopher Murphy | Incumbent D | Sam Caligiuri | Justin Bernier | Mark Greenberg | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 5 | ||
| DE | AL | Dem Primary | Open R | Glen Urquhart | Michele Rollins | Rose Izzo | DE | 14-Sep | Leans D | DE | AL | ||
| FL | 2 | Allen Boyd | Incumbent D | Eddie Hendry | David Scholl | Steve Southerland | FL | 24-Aug | Leans D | FL | 2 | ||
| FL | 8 | Alan Grayson | Incumbent D | Daniel Webster | Kurt Kelly | Bruce O’Donoghue | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 8 | ||
| FL | 12 | Dem Primary | Open R | Dennis Ross | Randy Wilkinson | John Lindsey Jr. | FL | 24-Aug | Likely R | FL | 12 | ||
| FL | 22 | Ron Klein | Incumbent D | Allen West | FL | 24-Aug | Leans D | FL | 22 | ||||
| FL | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | Incumbent D | Sandy Adams | Karen Deibel | Craig Miller | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 24 | ||
| FL | 25 | Dem Primary | Open R | David Rivera | Paul Crespo | Marili Cancio (I) | FL | 24-Aug | Leans R | FL | 25 | ||
| GA | 8 | Jim Marshall | Incumbent D | Austin Scott | GA | 20-Jul | Likely D | GA | 8 | ||||
| HI | 1 | Colleen Hanabusa | Incumbent R | Charles Djou | HI | 18-Sep | Toss-Up | HI | 1 | ||||
| IA | 3 | Leonard Boswell | Incumbent D | Brad Zaun | IA | 8-Jun | Leans D | IA | 3 | ||||
| ID | 1 | Walter Minnick | Incumbent D | Raul Labrador | ID | 25-May | Leans D | ID | 1 | ||||
| IL | 8 | Melissa Bean | Incumbent D | Joe Walsh | IL | 2-Feb | Likely D | IL | 8 | ||||
| IL | 10 | Dan Seals | Open R | Bob Dold | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 10 | ||||
| IL | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | Incumbent D | Adam Kinzinger | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 11 | ||||
| IL | 14 | Bill Foster | Incumbent D | Randy Hultgren | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 14 | ||||
| IN | 2 | Joe Donnelly | Incumbent D | Jackie Walorski | IN | 4-May | Leans D | IN | 2 | ||||
| IN | 8 | W. Trent Van Haaften | Open D | Dr. Larry Bucshon | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 8 | ||||
| IN | 9 | Baron Hill | Incumbent D | Todd Young | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 9 | ||||
| KS | 3 | Open D (Moore) | Open D | Kevin Yoder | Patricia Lightner | KS | 3-Aug | Leans R | KS | 3 | |||
| KY | 6 | Ben Chandler | Incumbent D | Andy Barr | KY | 8-May | Leans D | KY | 6 | ||||
| LA | 2 | Dem Primary | Incumbent R | Joseph Cao | LA | 28-Aug | Leans D | LA | 2 | ||||
| LA | 3 | Open D (Melancon) | Open D | Hunt Downer | Jeff Landry | Kristian Magar | LA | 28-Aug | Likely R | LA | 3 | ||
| MA | 10 | Open D (Delahunt) | Open D | Jeff Perry | Joe Malone | Ray Kasperowicz | MA | 14-Sep | Leans D | MA | 10 | ||
| MD | 1 | Frank Kratovil | Incumbent D | Andy Harris | Jeannie Haddoway-Riccio | Jeff Ghrist | MD | 14-Sep | Leans R | MD | 1 | ||
| MI | 1 | Open D (Stupak) | Open D | Dr. Daniel Benishek | Tom Stillings | Jason Allen | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | MI | 1 | ||
| MI | 7 | Mark Schauer | Incumbent D | Tim Walberg | Brian Rooney | Marvin Carlson | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | MI | 7 | ||
| MI | 9 | Gary Peters | Incumbent D | "Rocky" Raczowski | Paul Welday | Anna Janek | MI | 3-Aug | Likely D | MI | 9 | ||
| MN | 1 | Tim Walz | Incumbent D | Randy Demmer | MN | 14-Sep | Likely D | MN | 1 | ||||
| MN | 6 | Dem Primary | Incumbent R | Michele Bachmann | MN | 10-Aug | Likely R | MN | 6 | ||||
| MO | 4 | Ike Skelton | Incumbent D | Bill Stouffer | Vicky Hartzler | Art Madden | MO | 3-Aug | Leans D | MO | 4 | ||
| MS | 1 | Travis Childers | Incumbent D | Alan Nunnelee | MS | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | MS | 1 | ||||
| NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | Incumbent D | Harold Johnson | NC | 4-May | Toss-Up | NC | 8 | ||||
| ND | AL | Earl Pomeroy | Incumbent D | Rick Berg | ND | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | ND | AL | ||||
| NE | 2 | Tom White | Incumbent R | Lee Terry | NE | 11-May | Likely R | NE | 2 | ||||
| NH | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | Incumbent D | Frank Guinta | Sean Mahoney | Rich Ashooh | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 1 | ||
| NH | 2 | Open D (Paul Hodes) | Open D | Jennifer Horn | Charlie Bass | Bob Giuda | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 2 | ||
| NJ | 3 | John Adler | Incumbent D | Jon Runyan | NJ | 8-Jun | Leans D | NJ | 3 | ||||
| NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | Incumbent D | Jon Barela | NM | 1-Jun | Leans D | NM | 1 | ||||
| NM | 2 | Harry Teague | Incumbent D | Steve Pearce | NM | 1-Jun | Leans R | NM | 2 | ||||
| NV | 3 | Dina Titus | Incumbent D | Dr. Joe Heck | NV | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | NV | 3 | ||||
| NY | 1 | Tim Bishop | Incumbent D | Randy Altschuler | George Demos | Chris Cox | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 1 | ||
| NY | 13 | Mike McMahon | Incumbent D | Mike Grimm | Michael Allegretti | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 13 | |||
| NY | 19 | John Hall | Incumbent D | Nan Hayworth | Thomas DeChiaro | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 19 | |||
| NY | 20 | Scott Murphy | Incumbent D | Chris Gibson | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 20 | ||||
| NY | 23 | Bill Owens | Incumbent D | Doug Hoffman | Matt Doheny | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 23 | |||
| NY | 24 | Mike Arcuri | Incumbent D | Richard Hanna | NY | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NY | 24 | ||||
| NY | 25 | Dan Maffei | Incumbent D | Ann Marie Buerkle | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | NY | 25 | ||||
| NY | 29 | Open D (Massa) | Open D | Tom Reed | Angelo Campini | George Winner | NY | 14-Sep | Leans R | NY | 29 | ||
| OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | Incumbent D | Steve Chabot | OH | 4-May | Leans R | OH | 1 | ||||
| OH | 2 | Surya Yalamanchili | Incumbent R | Jean Schmidt | OH | 4-May | Safe R | OH | 2 | ||||
| OH | 13 | Betty Sutton | Incumbent D | Tom Ganley | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 13 | ||||
| OH | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | Incumbent D | Steve Stivers | OH | 4-May | Leans R | OH | 15 | ||||
| OH | 16 | John Boccieri | Incumbent D | Jim Renacci | OH | 4-May | Toss-Up | OH | 16 | ||||
| OH | 18 | Zach Space | Incumbent D | Bob Gibbs | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 18 | ||||
| OR | 5 | Kurt Schrader | Incumbent D | Scott Bruun | OR | 18-May | Likely D | ||||||
| PA | 3 | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Incumbent D | Mike Kelly | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 3 | ||||
| PA | 4 | Jason Altmire | Incumbent D | Keith Rothfus | PA | 18-May | Likely D | PA | 4 | ||||
| PA | 6 | Manan Trivedi | Incumbent R | Jim Gerlach | PA | 18-May | Likely R | PA | 6 | ||||
| PA | 7 | Bryan Lentz | Open D | Pat Meehan | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 7 | ||||
| PA | 8 | Patrick Murphy | Incumbent D | Mike Fitzpatrick | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 8 | ||||
| PA | 10 | Chris Carney | Incumbent D | Tom Marino | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 10 | ||||
| PA | 11 | Paul Kanjorski | Incumbent D | Lou Barletta | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 11 | ||||
| PA | 12 | Mark Critz | Incumbent D | Timothy Burns | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 12 | ||||
| PA | 17 | Tim Holden | Incumbent D | David Argall | PA | 18-May | Likely D | PA | 17 | ||||
| SC | 5 | John Spratt Jr. | Incumbent D | Mick Mulvaney | SC | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | SC | 5 | ||||
| SD | AL | Stephanie Sandlin | Incumbent D | Kristi Noem | SD | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | SD | AL | ||||
| TN | 4 | Lincoln Davis | Incumbent D | Jack Bailey | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | Kent Greenough | TN | 5-Aug | Likely D | TN | 4 | ||
| TN | 6 | Open D (Gordon) | Open D | Jim Tracy | Diane Black | Lou Ann Zelenik | TN | 5-Aug | Likely R | TN | 6 | ||
| TN | 8 | Open D (Tanner) | Open D | Stephen Fincher | George Flinn | TN | 5-Aug | Toss-Up | TN | 8 | |||
| TX | 17 | Chet Edwards | Incumbent D | Bill Flores | TX | 13-Apr | Toss-Up | TX | 17 | ||||
| TX | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | Incumbent D | Francisco "Quico" Canseco | TX | 13-Apr | Likely D | TX | 23 | ||||
| VA | 2 | Glenn Nye | Incumbent D | Scott Rigell | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 2 | ||||
| VA | 5 | Tom Perriello | Incumbent D | Robert Hurt | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 5 | ||||
| VA | 9 | Rick Boucher | Incumbent D | Morgan Griffith | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 9 | ||||
| VA | 11 | Gerald Connolly | Incumbent D | Keith Fimian | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 11 | ||||
| WA | 3 | Open D (Baird) | Open D | Jaime Herrera | David Castillo | David Hedrick | WA | 17-Aug | Toss-Up | WA | 3 | ||
| WA | 8 | Dem Primary | Incumbent R | Dave Reichert | WA | 17-Aug | Leans R | WA | 8 | ||||
| WI | 7 | Open D (Obey) | Open D | Sean Duffy | Dan Mielke | WI | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | WI | 7 | |||
| WI | 8 | Steve Kagen | Incumbent D | Terri McCormick | Roger Roth | Marc Savard | WI | 14-Sep | Leans D | WI | 8 | ||
| WV | 1 | Mike Oliverio | Open D | David B. McKinley | WV | 11-May | Toss-Up | WV | 1 | ||||
| Code | Color Code Indicates | ||||||||||||
| New Entry or Major Change | Average Expert’s Rating of the Master List | -0.306 | |||||||||||
| Upcoming Primary or Runoff | |||||||||||||
| Republican Primary Winner - Completed Primary | |||||||||||||
| Republican Open Seat or Contested Seat | |||||||||||||
| Open Dem Seat | |||||||||||||
| Updated | 1-Aug-10 | ||||||||||||
| Rating and Color Code | Average Expert | ||||||||||||
| From | To | ||||||||||||
| Safe D | -3 | -2.5 | |||||||||||
| Likely D | -2.5 | -1.5 | |||||||||||
| Leans D | -1.5 | -0.5 | |||||||||||
| Toss-Up | -0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||
| Toss-Up | 0 | 0.5 | |||||||||||
| Leans R | 0.5 | 1.5 | |||||||||||
| Likely R | 1.5 | 2.5 | |||||||||||
| Safe R | 2.5 | 3.5 | |||||||||||
Jesse Kelly is the man in AZ-8.
Thanks
Another Ping. FreepMail me if you want on or off this list.
One last ping. FreepMail me if you want on or off this Ping List.
BUMP.
Bottom line - how many seats do we pickup?
Am hoping to see the Republicans pick up the 2 open seats in Tennnessee. I would also like to see them knock off Lincoln Davis in TN-4, but, as your chart shows, doubt that is in the cards. He is fairly moderate, and so by comparison looks like a conservative to most observers considering that he is in the Moonbat Party. However, if not this time, possibly in two more years we can turn that seat, also.
Good report, IP.
Even more races could become competitive as voters look to blame someone for the sluggish economy and take out their frustration on the Democrats who run the government.
Already enough seats are in play that Republicans could gain the 39 they need to reclaim the House. Primary outcomes and national polls show a restless electorate and energized Republicans.
Independents who propelled the Democrats to power in 2006 and 2008 in scores of swing districts are leaning toward the GOP, expressing concerns about spending, government overreach and the national debt. Every part of the country features close House contests and Democrats have reserved nearly $50 million in TV advertising time for the fall in 60 districts, mostly to protect seats held by their own members.
"Republicans are on offense and Democrats are running for cover," said House GOP leader John Boehner of Ohio. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and other party leaders insist they will hold onto the House.
Rep. Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic House campaign effort, said his party is confident it will retain its majority. Still, he said keeping such a comfortable majority will be difficult. The current breakdown is 255 Democrats, 178 Republicans and two vacancies.
One of those is a Republican-held seat in Indiana; the other is a New York seat that likely will end up in GOP control. "We've won 55 seats over the last two cycles, and we hold virtually every swing seat in the country. That's what makes it a very challenging cycle but that being said we will win the majority," said Van Hollen, D-Md.
Copyright © 2010 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Right now the model that Freeper Political Junkie Too is using for our list is predicting about a 30 seat pickup. But the model is still being fine-tuned and the races are evolving (in a favorable direction) so stay in touch. We need a net 39 seat pickup plus a couple more to make up for the normal Democrat theft of close races in order to win the House back for the Republicans. There is still plenty of work to do.
Thanks for the headsup.
The four poised, articulate patriots estimated their groups represent more than 50 million people---all VERY motivated to vote against the hope and change we are saddled with by high-spending Democrats.
That is because some Republicans, on the advice of political consultants and our nominee John McCain, softened their conservatism in order to appeal to independent moderates.
Of the Communist goals listed 60 years or so ago, controlling one or both political parties was one of their first. They have obviously taken over the Democrat Party and I think they are making inroads with the Republicans through political consultant moles. The consultants are always advising that we soften our approach to the point we are indistinguishable from the Democrats. Then the Democrats, with the help of the media and election fraud, win, often by very narrow margins.
One thing I liked about Sarah Palin early on was when she was given that advice she basically said, Screw that! Let them come to us! She is right! When given a clear choice the independents will chose common sense.
Another Palin saying I liked was when she was asked about McCains campaign manger, Steve Sch ...., she said that if she every wanted to hire another bald campaign manager she guessed it would have to be James Carville.
No fewer than 65 House seats across the country - an overwhelming majority held by Democrats - are at risk of changing political hands this fall, enough to bolster Republican hopes of regaining power.
***********************************************************************
Right now we have 81 potentially vulnerable Democrats and 12 potentially vulnerable Republicans on our Master List. I’m confident that your 65 races are on our list.
BTTT
We have Michiganders have 7 GOP house seats and 8 democrats in Washington. I think we’re going to flip that number by picking up 2 house seats, plus I think its pretty likely we’ll pick up the governor’s mansion as well.
Unfortunately we have no senate seats in play this year.
You might want to add Oregon 4th District. Recent polls show Peter DeFazio in trouble. Art Robinson is a kick-ass speaker & if we can just get his name out, I think he might have a chance - even in a very blue state!
I’m having a hard time buying the “leans D” theory for AZ 1,5 and 8 given the WH war on the AZ immigration law. There are two other RAT seats that are untouchable but I just dont buy that these three are better than toss-ups. In fact I think leans R would be a better guess at this point.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.