Posted on 07/26/2010 8:34:29 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Gallup’s latest analysis shows that Democrats have not just lost ground on the national level, but also within states as well. Using a general-population sample (more on that in a moment), the survey shows that Democrats have gone from a twelve-point advantage on the eve of Barack Obama’s big win in 2008 to a mere four-point, within-the-MOE lead in party identification. Fewer states are showing significant Democratic advantage as a result:
More states are politically competitive this year than was the case in 2009, as fewer Americans nationwide identify with the Democratic Party. Vermont — along with the District of Columbia — is the most Democratic state in the U.S. in 2010 so far, while Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho are the most Republican.
These results are based on interviews with more than 175,000 U.S. adults, conducted between January and June 2010 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. …
Nationwide, Democrats have a 4-point party identification advantage over Republicans in 2010 (44% to 40%), down from an 8-point advantage in 2009 and a 12-point advantage in 2008.
While Democrats’ party strength fell in each of the last two years, Republicans have not gained concomitantly. Instead, the percentage of Americans who do not identify with or lean toward either political party has increased.
The sample is the key. Gallup did not ask for registered or likely voters, but instead opted for the wider but less accurate sampling technique. We have a basis of comparison as well, the 2008 election. Gallup showed Democrats with a 12-point advantage in the general population, but Obama only won the popular vote by seven points — and that was with the help of Republican crossovers. The general-population sample overstates Democratic support in actual elections, even the one with massive turnout that propelled Obama into the White House.
The four-point advantage today, therefore, looks pretty thin. Among registered voters, it’s probably dead even or perhaps a negative number.
The sample didn’t help Democrats with the states. Two years ago, Democrats had significant advantage in 30 states. In 2009, that number dropped to 24. This year, it’s 14. A few of those states went into the “leaner” category for Democrats, going from 6 to 10 and then to 9, respectively. Overall. the number of states with Democratic advantage has dropped from 36 to 23 in just two years. Republican states have grown from 5 to 12 in the same period, with the rest too close to call.
Gallup concludes that Republicans will have a good midterm in Congressional seats, but that’s more or less known already. The bigger problem for Democrats will be in the state houses. Redistricting starts next year, after the 2010 Census reports get published. If Republicans take control of more state houses, they may drive more of the redistricting — and that has implications well beyond these midterm elections.
Democrats have earned it.............
Other than the woes of the Democrats which this poll illustrates it also illustrates the problem of Republicans not being able to grow party identification even with polls wanting the Democrats to lose. You have to have a clear set of principles that people identify with. Why is it that the Republican leadership have such a problem simply expressing founding principles? People believe the govt is broke, spending is too high, and that Washington has no respect for the consent of the governed. If you can’t speak to at least those things then what can the leadership speak to?
Everything our founders feared and tried to prevent has come to pass. Where as at the founding judges and executives were reigned in so much that some states either removed executive positions in favor of the legislature or made them extremely weak. They realized that executives and judges were the two groups that if given enough power would make themselves kings. Things have progressed far beyond that now because all three branches of govt collude to such an extent and the political class is so removed from the the consent of the people that it is more so a ruling class than an elected body.
In my view it is crucial to make as many changes, on as many levels of government, as possible in the coming elections. The left has been marching forward with an insidious agenda by taking little bits of political territory with each election and with each liberal appointment. Even when they lose nationally, they still have some victories at the state and local levels, and with appointments of judges etc. For decades they have had a long term strategy for takeover, and by allowing ourselves to be silenced by fear of being labeled, or appearing politically ‘incorrect’ we have ceded them this ground.
Every political race needs to be contested. Every political appointment needs to be vetted and challenged. Every inaccuracy by the media must be pointed out. Every inaccurate politically motivated cry of ‘racism’ and every attempt to foment class warfare must be refuted, quickly, vocally, and publicly. The left must be made to do what the middle and right has had to do for years, constantly defend itself.
The benefits of redistricting often hurt the party in power. Now that’s not always the case, but typically they redistrict to save their own seats, so they put so many of the voters from their party in their district that it leaves the other districts a viable option to pick off from the other party.
Redistricting is more about keeping the incumbent in power than it is in keeping a party in power. We would be better served if districts were drawn along a common border, like cities and counties or school districts.
What??? Politico says the Dems are gaining......
If we ever want to get this country back in shape it’s going to require that the entire country is redistricted based on simple lines (as you suggested). What is happening in politics is a direct result of the manipulation of districts.
Yes, I thought that was rather odd! Is says the Dems calling Tea Party racists is working well for them.
Translation, we pulled this Dem lead out of our @ss.
It’s fun though to watch all the rat controlled states fight it out when they loose seats every year since their population isn’t growing as fast as conservative states.
When they have to combine two rat districts into one it’s fun to watch them fight it out :-)
“While Democrats’ party strength fell in each of the last two years, Republicans have not gained concomitantly. Instead, the percentage of Americans who do not identify with or lean toward either political party has increased.”
Which makes the situation even more dire for the Democrats and the extreme left.
Rejection of both parties is principally a rejection of big government, welfare state, globalist policies which both parties embrace and expand in different degrees and at varying speeds.
I keep remembering that when California was led by republicans it was called the Golden State. Today it's a joke (an no, a republcan governor with an overwhelming democrate legislature is not being run by republcans)
Is says the Dems calling Tea Party racists is working well for them.
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Just waking the zombies and getting the permanent welfare gentry off of their couches. Same base, just up and shuffling around again.
Received a call the other day from the Dem candidate for County commissioner here in Oklahoma. Now, Oklahoma is about as conservative a state as there is. I asked him why he was a Democrat. He started going on about helping the little guy, etc. I then started to ask him about Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, cap and trade, Obamacare, card check, abortion, gay marriage. He said that those issues have nothing to do with local politics. I told him he was wrong, that the only way you can have any support for those issues at the national level was to start at the local level. I don’t think he even knew what I was talking about.
Because they are democrats with republican labels, i.e. RINOs.
Seriously, there is a ruling class in Washington DC and they are democrats, and if republicans want to be part of it, they have to go along to get along.
Really simple as that.
My advice is for people not to put their hope and faith in either party, rather put it in a local Tea Party and let the GOP know they don't own it.
Has anyone seen any early predictions as to which states will lose and gain House seats in 2012
I was mistaken....although many/most rank and file were Dims, because their parents were. But vote conservative...mostly.
That said...I've known a local state rep..that was also a pastor and a Dim. Apparently he never considered the dichotomy of that....
Absolutely agree. I would love to see some Republican solutions other than “kick the bums out” and “cut more taxes.” How are they planning to clean up the Gulf? What about these massive sinkholes of tax money in Iraq and Afghanistan? What are they planning to do about the millions and millions and millions of illegal aliens here in the US?
Their entire electoral and governing strategy these days seems to be “blame the other guy and don’t propose anything of your own.”
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