Posted on 07/24/2010 8:54:50 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
Georgia Primary: Austin Scott won the GA-08 primary and will be the GOP nominee running against the incumbent Dem Jim Marshall in November.
The REALLY BIG NEWS is that were 44 changes in our "Expert" ratings this week. We had major changes by Rothenberg, a few by Election Projection (as usual), 4 from the mostly quiet Real Clear Politics and a few from Cook. Sabato and CQPolitics were silent this week.
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Those changes moved our index to -.288 from last weeks -.353. That's the most favorable value of our index by far and is the largest change that we have recorded in a single week. This is due primarily to the large number of changes by Rothenberg in favor of the Republicans. The -.288 value means that the average rating of our "Experts" for the 91 races on our list is TOSS-UP but leaning D. If the value of the index gets into positive territory then we will have a Republican landslide in November. And remember, this index started out at -.585 back in April. That was a LEANS D average. Since then the trend has been a continuous re-evaluation by our "Experts' in favor of the Republicans. We expect that trend to continue.
Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page.
Just a reminder: Here is the full schedule for August Primaries:
August 3: Kansas, Michigan and Missouri
August 5: Tennessee
August 10: Colorado, Connecticut, Minnesota and a Georgia Runoff if necessary
August 17: Washington and Wyoming
August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Vermont
August 28: Louisiana
Here is the chart from our EXPERTS page for July 24th. Lots of RED in 4 of the 6 Experts columns. Those are the ones that have changed this week in favor of the Republicans.
District | Average | Average | Sabato | CQP | EP.com | Cook | Rothenberg | RCP | Sabato | CQP | EP.com | Cook | Rothenberg | RCP | District | ||
AL | 2 | Toss-Up | 0.0 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Leans D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | AL | 2 |
AR | 1 | Toss-Up | 0.0 | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | AR | 1 |
AR | 2 | Leans R | 1.3 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Leans R | Likely R | Leans R | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | AR | 2 |
AZ | 1 | Leans D | -1.0 | Toss-Up | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | 0 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | AZ | 1 |
AZ | 5 | Leans D | -0.8 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | AZ | 5 |
AZ | 8 | Leans D | -0.7 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | AZ | 8 |
CA | 3 | Leans R | 1.3 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Leans R | Leans R | Likely R | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | CA | 3 |
CA | 11 | Leans D | -0.8 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | CA | 11 |
CA | 47 | Likely D | -2.5 | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | -3 | -2 | -3 | -2 | -3 | -2 | CA | 47 |
CO | 3 | Leans D | -1.3 | Leans D | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | -1 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -1 | CO | 3 |
CO | 4 | Leans R | 0.7 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Likely R | Leans R | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | CO | 4 |
CT | 4 | Likely D | -1.8 | Likely D | Leans D | Mod D | Likely D | Safe D | Leans D | -2 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -3 | -1 | CT | 4 |
CT | 5 | Likely D | -1.8 | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -1 | CT | 5 |
DE | AL | Leans D | -1.0 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | DE | AL |
FL | 2 | Leans D | -0.7 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | FL | 2 |
FL | 8 | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | FL | 8 |
FL | 12 | Likely R | 2.5 | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | FL | 12 |
FL | 22 | Leans D | -1.5 | Leans D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Likely D | Toss-Up | -1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | 0 | FL | 22 |
FL | 24 | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | Toss-Up | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | FL | 24 |
FL | 25 | Leans R | 1.5 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Likely R | Leans R | Likely R | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | FL | 25 |
GA | 8 | Likely D | -2.0 | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Leans D | Likely D | -2 | -2 | -3 | -2 | -1 | -2 | GA | 8 |
HI | 1 | Toss-Up | -0.2 | Leans D | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans D | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | HI | 1 |
IA | 3 | Leans D | -1.0 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | IA | 3 |
ID | 1 | Leans D | -0.8 | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | ID | 1 |
IL | 8 | Likely D | -1.8 | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Toss-Up | Leans D | -2 | -3 | -3 | -2 | 0 | -1 | IL | 8 |
IL | 10 | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | IL | 10 |
IL | 11 | Toss-Up | -0.2 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak R | Leans D | Toss-Up | Leans R | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | IL | 11 |
IL | 14 | Toss-Up | -0.3 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans D | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | IL | 14 |
IN | 2 | Leans D | -1.2 | Likely D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | IN | 2 |
IN | 8 | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Leans R | Toss-Up | Leans R | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | IN | 8 |
IN | 9 | Toss-Up | -0.3 | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | IN | 9 |
KS | 3 | Leans R | 0.7 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | KS | 3 |
LA | 2 | Leans D | -1.3 | Leans D | Likely D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Likely D | Likely D | -1 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -2 | -2 | LA | 2 |
LA | 3 | Likely R | 1.7 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | LA | 3 |
MA | 10 | Leans D | -0.7 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak R | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -2 | 0 | MA | 10 |
MD | 1 | Leans R | 0.7 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | Leans R | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | MD | 1 |
MI | 1 | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | MI | 1 |
MI | 7 | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | MI | 7 |
MI | 9 | Likely D | -1.8 | Leans D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Safe D | Leans D | -1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -3 | -1 | MI | 9 |
MN | 1 | Likely D | -2.3 | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | -2 | -2 | -3 | -2 | -3 | -2 | MN | 1 |
MN | 6 | Likely R | 2.3 | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | MN | 6 |
MO | 4 | Leans D | -1.0 | Likely D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | MO | 4 |
MS | 1 | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | MS | 1 |
NC | 8 | Toss-Up | -0.5 | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Likely D | Leans R | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -2 | 1 | NC | 8 |
ND | AL | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ND | AL |
NE | 2 | Likely R | 2.0 | Likely R | Likely R | Mod R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | NE | 2 |
NH | 1 | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | NH | 1 |
NH | 2 | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | NH | 2 |
NJ | 3 | Leans D | -1.0 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | NJ | 3 |
NM | 1 | Leans D | -1.3 | Likely D | Leans D | Mod D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | -2 | -1 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | NM | 1 |
NM | 2 | Leans R | 0.7 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | Leans R | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | NM | 2 |
NV | 3 | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | NV | 3 |
NY | 1 | Leans D | -1.0 | Likely D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | NY | 1 |
NY | 13 | Leans D | -1.5 | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | -2 | -2 | -2 | -1 | -2 | 0 | NY | 13 |
NY | 19 | Leans D | -0.8 | Likely D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | NY | 19 |
NY | 20 | Leans D | -1.3 | Leans D | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | -1 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -1 | NY | 20 |
NY | 23 | Leans D | -1.0 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 | 0 | NY | 23 |
NY | 24 | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NY | 24 |
NY | 25 | Likely D | -2.3 | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | -2 | -2 | -3 | -2 | -3 | -2 | NY | 25 |
NY | 29 | Leans R | 1.2 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Leans R | Likely R | Leans R | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | NY | 29 |
OH | 1 | Leans R | 0.8 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Leans R | Leans R | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | OH | 1 |
OH | 2 | Safe R | 2.8 | Safe R | Safe R | Mod R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | OH | 2 |
OH | 13 | Leans D | -1.3 | Likely D | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | -2 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -2 | 0 | OH | 13 |
OH | 15 | Leans R | 0.7 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | Leans R | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | OH | 15 |
OH | 16 | Toss-Up | -0.5 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Toss-Up | Leans R | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | OH | 16 |
OH | 18 | Leans D | -0.8 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | OH | 18 |
PA | 3 | Toss-Up | -0.5 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | PA | 3 |
PA | 4 | Likely D | -1.8 | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -1 | PA | 4 |
PA | 6 | Likely R | 1.7 | Likely R | Leans R | Mod R | Likely R | Likely R | Leans R | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | PA | 6 |
PA | 7 | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | PA | 7 |
PA | 8 | Leans D | -1.0 | Toss-Up | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | 0 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -2 | 0 | PA | 8 |
PA | 10 | Leans D | -1.3 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -1 | PA | 10 |
PA | 11 | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | PA | 11 |
PA | 12 | Leans D | -1.0 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 | 0 | PA | 12 |
PA | 17 | Likely D | -1.8 | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -1 | PA | 17 |
SC | 5 | Toss-Up | -0.5 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SC | 5 |
SD | AL | Toss-Up | 0.0 | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak R | Leans D | Toss-Up | Leans R | 0 | -1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | SD | AL |
TN | 4 | Likely D | -2.2 | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D | -3 | -2 | -3 | -2 | -2 | -1 | TN | 4 |
TN | 6 | Likely R | 2.2 | Leans R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | TN | 6 |
TN | 8 | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | TN | 8 |
TX | 17 | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | TX | 17 |
TX | 23 | Likely D | -1.7 | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | -2 | -2 | -2 | -1 | -2 | -1 | TX | 23 |
VA | 2 | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | VA | 2 |
VA | 5 | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | VA | 5 |
VA | 9 | Leans D | -1.0 | Leans D | Leans D | Mod D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | -1 | -1 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | VA | 9 |
VA | 11 | Leans D | -1.2 | Leans D | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | -1 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -2 | 0 | VA | 11 |
WA | 3 | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WA | 3 |
WA | 8 | Leans R | 1.3 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Likely R | Leans R | Leans R | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | WA | 8 |
WI | 7 | Toss-Up | -0.3 | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WI | 7 |
WI | 8 | Leans D | -1.3 | Likely D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -1 | WI | 8 |
WV | 1 | Toss-Up | -0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WV | 1 |
District | Average | Average | Sabato | CQP | EP.com | Cook | Rothenberg | RCP | Sabato | CQP | EP.com | Cook | Rothenberg | RCP | District | ||
Average | Toss-Up | -0.288 | Toss-Up | Leans D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | |||||||||
Updated | 24-Jul-10 | -0.411 | -0.611 | -0.100 | -0.367 | -0.389 | 0.144 | ||||||||||
Rating and Color Code | Average Expert | ||||||||||||||||
Rating | |||||||||||||||||
From | To | ||||||||||||||||
Safe D | -3 | -2.5 | |||||||||||||||
Likely D | -2.5 | -1.5 | |||||||||||||||
Leans D | -1.5 | -0.5 | |||||||||||||||
Toss-Up | -0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
Toss-Up | 0 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||
Leans R | 0.5 | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||
Likely R | 1.5 | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||
Safe R | 2.5 | 3.5 |
You are really missing the boat by excluding IL-9 from your list ... Joel Pollak’s challenge to Jan Schakowsky is begining to draw some national attention, and she’s starting to flail at him rather than igoring him as she has previous challengers ... Joel Pollak is the real deal.
We'll take a look at IL-09. We're in the process of reviewing our "Tier 2 List" of those races that are candidates for moving up to the Master List. We won't do it unless we have very strong evidence that the race is really in play. Right now that means we need our "Experts" to think so. Later it will be the polls as they come out. If you have any poll data please pass it on.
Thanks InterceptPoint!
From today’s Comic Appeal
From today’s Comic Appeal 54% of Tennesseans rank economy, jobs as the most important issue, followed by taxes, government spending, state budget shortfall, which 22% listed as most important issue or problem.
Republicans showing big improvements in turnout. 1 week after early voting Deidre Malone (D) posted to her facebook “have you voted yet? I normally wait until election day, but I’m getting a little concerned about early voting numbers, specifically D numbers. Who wants to join me and vote early?”
Saturday was again a disappointing day for D turnout, & strongest yet for R, with 2006 (52%) voters asking for D ballot 1858 45%. Huge reversal from numbers seen in ‘06-’08 when up to 70% asked for D ballots. and registered black voters often comprised 45% of a given day’s turn out. Over all turnout is 41,344 or 6.9% of the 600,518 registered voters in Shelby Co. If second week of early voting ends with traditional spike 90,00-100,00 votes are possible. Which would set a record turnout pn pace to surpass the ‘06 Aug primary, when nearly 159,00 voted.
The latest chart.
Thanks for the ping & for doing this.
BTW are you not following the IL 9? Does Pollack have a chance? How Democratic is that District?
Also, do you have anything on the Senate races?
Can we pick up both houses?
Thanks for the ping & for doing this.
BTW are you not following the IL 9? Does Pollack have a chance? How Democratic is that District?
Also, do you have anything on the Senate races?
Can we pick up both Houses?
We are only working the House Races. There will be plenty of attention to the Senate by others. But my personal opinion is that we have a better shot at regaining the House than the Senate. That's really the the goal of KeyHouseRaces.com: Help Republicans take back the House.
As to IL-09. It's not our radar screen at this point. If it's not on the Master List you can take a look at our "Tier-2 list" that has the races that we are watching as possible candidates to be promoted to our main list. I don't see IL-09 in either place. That's because the polls and the "Expert's" evaluation of the district tell us that the race looks safe for the Dems, or in some instances for the Republicans.
But stay tuned. Things change. If you see any favorable IL-09 polls let us know.
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