Posted on 07/19/2010 4:49:46 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Our latest Talk Business Poll is likely to get the water cooler talk started about this fall's general election match-ups for U.S. Senate and Arkansas Governor.
In a poll conducted on Saturday, July 17 among 793 likely Arkansas voters, our polling firm, Washington, D.C.-based Zata 3, found the following results:
U.S. SENATE John Boozman (R) 57% Blanche Lincoln (D) 32% Trevor Drown (I) 3% John Gray (G) 2% Undecided 6%
Analysis: This race won't finish where it stands today as I've said in previous discussions of this match-up; however, several observations stand out.
First, Boozman has a strong lead in this race if for no other reason but for the anti-incumbent, anti-Lincoln sentiment that exists in the state's current political landscape. Lincoln is coming off a bruising primary election in which she only earned 52% of the Democratic vote. Boozman had an easier time even in a crowded field of GOP challengers. There were few real heated or nasty exchanges in that primary versus the hard-hitting, heavyweight fight between Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.
Lincoln's fundraising advantage - $1.9 million to Boozman's $484,000 - is a good step for her to make this race more competitive, but she will also have to find ways to define Boozman negatively, something we've seen signs of in recent weeks.
Secondly, third party candidates do not seem to have much appeal as an alternative in this race. It is a logical assumption that Boozman is benefiting significantly as the more viable alternative to Lincoln.
Third, the election atmosphere is favorable for Republicans or against Democrats, however you want to spin that.
(Excerpt) Read more at talkbusiness.net ...
Two observations-
1.) Blanche Lincoln has a huge money advantage and may try to distance herself from Obama. Don’t be surprised if she votes against Elena Kagan for the Supreme Court.
2.) Jim Keet is running surprisingly strong against a ‘Rat Governor whom the voters have nothing against. Some may remember Keet as the GOP nominee for Congress in 1990, which he lost by a wide margin.
Looks like Indiana and Arkansas are almost certain pickups. PA is looking good, too. Where else? Decent chance in NV, WI. Outside change in CA.
If Beebe is only up by 9%, that’s a bad sign for him. His GOP opponent, ex-State Sen. Jim Keet, seemed to be hardly more than desultory opposition. Could he be carried in by an anti-Dem tide ?
Beebe below 50%??? Just wow.
Keet’s fundraising is terrible. He’s got to raise a lot more to make it more competitive, though. Perhaps those numbers will help him attract more donations.
DE (Castle), MO (Blunt) are looking good. Also possible WA, CO, IL.
Have to keep FL and NH.
Keet was the nominee in AR-2, the Little Rock district, for an open seat that party-switcher Tommy Robinson vacated in his unsuccessful run for the GOP nomination for Governor (some had speculated if Robinson had faced Clinton instead of Sheffield Nelson, he might’ve beaten Bubba). Keet lost to Ray Thornton by a 60-40% margin.
Taking out Castle in the primary is paramount. Frankly, I’d like to see Chuck Purgason beat Blunt in the primary, too.
TOO BAD this guy didn’t win, it seems he would have been even more conservative than Boozeman from his website; even though he is a Democrat.
http://dcmorrisonforussenate.com/
Disagree completely. Winning any of the three races in Wisconsin, Washington, and California would be far, far better than Castle losing his primary race.
That would be nice, but as one who used to live in DE and live in a neighboring state right now, that's a very long shot. Castle has been a fixture in DE politics for decades-just like Biden was. DE likes its good old boys and it's a small enough state that its politics are pretty incestuous.
We have an excellent candidate in Christine O’Donnell. Young, Conservative, attractive. The polar opposite of the embarrassingly liberal and too old Mike Castle.
Don’t they all seem that way before they’re elected?
Time for a change. Castle is older than Plugs, way too old to be starting a Senate career at what will be almost 72.
That’s not my point at all. My paramount concern is taking out Democrat incumbents in the seats I mentioned, not the outcome of any single Republican primary. O’Donnell may or may not be able to win in Delaware. Castle would win easily, but he’d be far from a reliable vote. It’d be nice to win Biden’s old seat, but I’d relish sending Boxer, Murray, and/or Feingold into retirement much, much more.
Replacing Democrats with part-of-the-problem RINOs is not a change. I want real change. I saw polling data last week that said O’Donnell would beat the Democrat in DE if she is the nominee. It is very important that we nominate the RIGHT people in the primaries.
Don’t forget North Dakota which is a 100% certain gain.
Also we have an even chance in Washington State.
Beebee is up only 9? 49.5 to 40.5? Amazing.
I pegged very few gubernatorial races this years as favorable to the rats. Arkansas was at the top of list. Safe for Beebee or so everyone thought.
When Keet got in the race it was spun by the left as “good for Lincoln” because allegedly forcing the popular Beebee to actually run would boost rat turnout.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.