Posted on 07/17/2010 8:39:00 PM PDT by no dems
Lately, the media has been eating up the doom and gloom projections for Democrats in the November 2010 election, so much so that you kind of have to wonder to what degree it might be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Ironically, however, conservative Charles Krauthammer predicts a not-so-gloomy future for Obama and the Democratic Party, regardless (and maybe even because of) what will likely happen in November.
The most interesting part of Krauthammer’s column in the Washington Post is the extent to which he portrays Pres. Barack Obama as a force to be reckoned with. Krauthammer clearly doesn’t agree with what Obama has spent his first year and a half in office doing, but he acknowledges the historic nature of Obama’s presidency and warns Republicans, in no uncertain terms, “Don’t underestimate Barack Obama.”
Krauthammer compares Obama’s presidency to Reagan’s, noting that “both presidencies were highly ideological, grandly ambitious and often underappreciated by their own side.” And while Obama has come under fire from critics on both sides of political spectrum, Krauthammer argues that these critics are actually missing the big picture.
Obama’s transformational agenda is a play in two acts.
Act One is over. The stimulus, Obamacare, financial reform have exhausted his first-term mandate. It will bear no more heavy lifting. And the Democrats will pay the price for ideological overreaching by losing one or both houses, whether de facto or de jure. The rest of the first term will be spent consolidating these gains (writing the regulations, for example) and preparing for Act Two.
For Obama to fulfill the remainder of his agenda, he’ll need to win a second term. And here’s the kicker. As Krauthammer sees it, letting the Republicans win control of either or both houses this November might actually benefit Obama (and Democrats) in the following 2012 election.
If Democrats lose control of one or both houses, Obama will probably have an easier time in 2012, just as Bill Clinton used Newt Gingrich and the Republicans as the foil for his 1996 reelection campaign.
Over the past few months, news and political analysis has been remarkably focused on the short term, concerned mostly with how this or that event will play out in the November elections. There has been comparatively less attention given to what could happen if the supposed inevitable Republican resurgence comes to pass, let alone what that could mean for future elections. Krauthammer’s foresight, then, is what makes this column particularly interesting.
It also, incidentally, makes Sarah Palin’s Twitter endorsement of Krauthammer’s column ever so slightly amusing. The shared Tea Party and Republican rallying cry that November is a “referendum on Obama” is, after all, a rather short sighted game plan.
Reagan Man you are wrong too. Obama HATES America. Not just American Values but the entire country.
In the new Bizarr0 World, 0 benefits greatly from a significant number of useful idiots and enfranchised fools.
If (or assuming) the Repubs gain control of at least one house in 2010, and use that power to obstruct, slow down, or reverse the socialist progress of the democrat party, 0 will play on the needs of his 2008 supporters to not have been so wrong by blaming any and all ills on the Repubs.
It doesn't have to be truthful. It doesn't have to be logical.
All it has to be is sufficiently simple, oriented to the message that tells 0's supporters that they weren't really stupid in the first election, and repeated sufficiently.
It worked in Germany in 1933. It'll work in the U.S. in 2012.
Assuming there is an election in November, I expect Republicans to take the House or come very close to it. The Senate will remain in Democrat hands by a smaller margin.
Assuming the Dems lose one or both houses of Congress, the odds are better than 50/50 they will employ their nuclear option to use a lame duck session of Congress to pass amnesty, cap & trade, and possibly additional regulations on the internet which over time the bureaucracy can use to stifle free speech and commerce on the internet. I don’t see them attempting to pass the VAT in the lameduck session.
In January the new Congress will be elected. The President and the Democrats will immediately begin talking about the need to deal with the deficit while at the same time continuing to propose new spending programs and expansion of existing programs. The expiration of the Bush tax cuts will result in lower economic activity and higher unemployment. At least 2 or 3 states will come to the federal government for a bailout (California, Michigan, Massachussetts perhaps). The mantra from the White House and media will be the economic crisis and the obstructionist Republican Congress. We heard the prelude to this in Obama’s Saturday speech in which he bashed Republicans for not extending unemployment benefits.
I fear under this pressure, the Republican Congress will buckle and compromise. They’ll agree to a VAT and higher retirement age for Social Security which will enrage small business and the conservative base. Any new taxes will be blamed on the Republican Congress. The nightly mainstream news will be filled with stories of people suffering because the Republican Congress is too stingy to vote for Obama’s big spending programs.
By the 2012 elections the economy will still be in deep recession if not depression. The tax increases, lack of capital creation, and high regulatory burden will have crushed the small businesses which create most new private sector jobs. The barriers to starting new businesses will be so high many unemployed people will not even try to start up a new business, defaulting to government assistance.
For Obama the loss of his big Democrat majorities in Congress are the perfect setup for 2012. The economic misery will intensify after the election. By 2012 people will want change and he will tell them the Republican Congress is the source of their misery. Plus, if he gets amnesty for illegals passed in the lame duck session with a quick path to citizenship (or if he delivers amnesty through an executive order), he will have millions of new grateful voters in 2012 to provide the winning margin of victory.
Unfortunately, polls show his support at over 40% despite the economy. He only needs to shift 10% of the voting population, not 30%.
No there isn't. I know people who live very conservative lifestyles, and they voted for him. One woman in particular actually watches Keith Olbermann. She despises Glenn Beck, even though she never watched the show. I know that comes from Olbermann because he trashes Beck every chance he gets.
“I still worry that the GOP will find a way to deliver another terrible presidential candidate.”
I agree. Romney is too moderate for many in the Republican base. Plus many people will not vote for a Morman. While Palin energizes the conservative base the mainstream press will destroy her. Even today she gets flustered under intense questioning for which she is not prepared. She is too polarizing a figure.
Gingrich is articulate, but has too many skeletons in his closet. Pawlenty is unknown and like Romney looks like a corporate suit. Bobby Jindal is not yet seasoned enough. Haley Barbour is a politician, not a transforming visionary. He is a creature of the established order.
I don’t yet see a truly conservative Republican, committed to small government, who can articulate a vision and inspire enough independents to win the election in 2012. The party has become an expert in putting forth candidates whose major attribute is they aren’t as bad as the other guy (Bush I, Dole, Bush II, McCain). The people want someone they can enthusiastically vote “for”, not another candidate they support only because the alternative is worse.
I’m not yanking your chain, merely curious - What has he said or done to impel you to believe he is brilliant?
A second term will not be tolerated and thus the act II curtain will come down before it is over.
He is not. There are more of them than they are of us. obama fooled them one time and when he has to do it again, he will and can.
I agree;if/when the Dims lose the house,they’ll have some lovely parting gifts for the American people during the lame duck session.
omama has accomplished while in office that Clinton could only dream about.
He has taken control of the financial industry, the medical profession,two automobile manufacturers, turned most of the population against the oil industry, destroyed the American economy. And he still has 2011 and 2012 on this term.
Ted Kennedy challenged Carter and his policies, but did not actually enter any primaries after a disasterous interview with Roger Mudd.
But he damaged him just enough with criticism to wound him, and Reagan finished him off.
I agree with you; an intra-party fight with Hillary! would be terrific.
Don’t forget that Krauthammer was frankly admiring of 0bama during the campaign.
I think he’s still got a little thing going on for 0bama.
Reagan had a plan and the leadership skills to cajole Congress (the opposition) to push it through.
When we take the House, we need to have leadership there to present a plan and stand and deliver.
That plan should be in formulation RIGHT NOW with Republican candidtes signing on.
Congressman Ryan's plan is a good basis for this.
That should be the question asked of all those running on the Republican ticket this fall: "will you back Ryan's Plan?"
Reagan had a plan and the leadership skills to cajole Congress (the opposition) to push it through.
When we take the House, we need to have leadership there to present a plan and stand and deliver.
That plan should be in formulation RIGHT NOW with Republican candidtes signing on.
Congressman Ryan's plan is a good basis for this.
That should be the question asked of all those running on the Republican ticket this fall: "will you back Ryan's Plan?"
I met a lot of hussein lovers in Las Vegas last week.
....
Met A lot of haters as well, A few blacks included.
____________________________________________________________
That’s interesting.
You know, way back when, there was a “code” in the Black community that you didn’t do anything to bring shame upon the race.
There may still be some of that code in operation.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9SPdh4Nzy4
Never underestimate Maximum Leader’s ability to lie, cheat and steal. In that respect Krauthammer is right.
The key is to make 2010 a referendum on Maximum Leader, Reid, and Pelosi. 2012 can then be a referendum on Maximum Leader himself.
Excellent summation of the potential candidates.
I adore Sarah Palin, but I agree that she is polarizing, and faces the same “ceiling” Hillary! did in terms of a negative perception.
The key is someone who has her enthusiam, but who does not have her negatives.
Right now, the only person with that combination is Governor Chris Christie of NJ.
Plus he’s not a metrosexual, and looks like a typical American (hah)!
Bert, I'm with you.
"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."
He makes great sense when he argues against the left.
:-)
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